Teetering chaos

It’s over one month since Hasina exited from the political scene from a violence-torn Bangladesh and Mohammad Yunus is now in place as the Chief Advisor. Yet, there is no semblance of any order in the country amid utter confusion. It is difficult to understand if the advisory body, which is assigned to govern and administer Bangladesh, is running the show, or the student bodies, or the armed forces, or the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) from behind the scenes, or the Jamaat, or the US Embassy in Dhaka. BNP is issuing political and administrative statements, and Jamaat and Islami Chatra Shibir (ICS) are coming out with unbridled statements with political implications and forcing teachers and others to resign.

In other words, there doesn’t seem to be any coordination between various advisors in policy or decision-making. Confusion prevails, and that’s worrisome because the country now requires direction, a major overhaul, and stability in political, economic, and law and order spheres. One hopes that with the passage of time, things will improve, but as of now, the prospects look distant.

One also fails to understand the role of the students in the advisory body. Completely bereft of any experience, it would be naive to expect any substantial contribution from them in the restoration of law and order. Their positioning in the system is possible due to the student community being kept in good humour as they are still considered to be a force to reckon with due to the fact that they played a critical role in the July-August upheaval and in ousting Hasina from power bringing in a regime change. How much is their worth with little or no experience of running an administration is perhaps well known. Very recently students’ bodies held pitched clashes with the law and order agency, the Ansars.

Another disturbing feature in the ongoing happenings is the random release of criminals and political prisoners from the prisons. The administration should have taken some time before ordering an en masse release. The release of political prisoners like BNP’s Khaleda Zia was perhaps all right given the politically sensitive situation but freeing hardened criminals exhibited a complete lack of any political or mature wisdom.

Besides, the Islamic radicals are also under the impression that they had a crucial role to play in Hasina’s exit and now they are asserting and demanding their share of the loaf. Also, they are wanting to stay in the political mainstream to increase their visibility. Hizbut Tahrir, an ultra-religious outfit, recently in a statement, congratulated the students for their victory by ushering in a regime change. Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), which was hitherto disenfranchised, is now issuing statements after statements which are mostly political. Clearly, it too wants to stay afloat with power sharing in mind and greater participation in various aspects of Bangladesh. Their agenda is clear to play a critical and decisive role in things to come. It may be recalled that Jamaat was a partner in governance with the BNP from 2001 to 2006 and earlier from 1991 to 1996. They have a clear road map with their policy and fairly good financial status. They also enjoy moral and material support from a large number of Bangladeshi diaspora outside the country especially in the US and the UK among other countries. They are better organized than the BNP and importantly, they have the eyes and ears of the US Administration and its allied agencies meaning they are not treated or ignored as pariahs. On September 2, Jamaat Amir Dr Shafiqur Rahman met Mr Yao Wen, the Chinese Ambassador in Dhaka and held parleys that made the developments more interesting.

In a significant or perhaps a strategic move, the Jamaat very recently assured the Durga Puja committee in Natore (a city near Rajshahi with a sizeable Hindu minority population) that they will safeguard the Hindu idols by maintaining vigil against any miscreants attempting to desecrate Durga idols. This was formally confirmed by the local Jamaat Amir, Mir Nurul Islam. This development cannot be ignored. It’s likely that the Jamaat is trying to win the Hindus against continued attacks and vandalization of Hindu temples. JeI may also be trying for tactical reasons to take electoral favours whenever the next elections take place.

On the other hand, however, there are credible reports that the hardcore Islamists are on a rampage destroying Sufi dargahs and Khankhawas as the religious extremists are opposed to such shrines. It’s sad that the high-profile advisory body is failing to rein in such violence in the same manner as the Awami League (AL) workers are randomly killed by their political adversaries. Again, the advisory entity is silent and more importantly the army looks to be in the grip of some kind of inertia. It is obvious that the advisory committee or the law enforcers are proving to be ineffective or at least seem to be losing their steam. Its functioning seems to be fatigued. Mohammad Yunus needs to assert more and prevail upon the army and police to work harder to contain the fragile situation. Things are still tentative and the system is vulnerable. Unless the number one in the administration cracks the whip, things would go adrift with the propensity of violence and more complex challenges, which may prove difficult to handle.

Meanwhile, there has been no letup in India bashing by the government or the key players. An impression is being given to the people that it was India which supported Hasina and her “autocratic” ways of working. It is also being insinuated that India was ignoring corrupt practices openly carried out by Sheikh Hasina and her Lieutenants. Surprisingly, none in the advisory body or in the armed forces are giving any statement or remaining neutral in India bashing, so by implication, all seem complicit in criticism of India. They are also acerbically critical of India for “harbouring” Hasina.

This apart, most of the major newspapers have become anti-India as apparent in their opinion pieces. Widely read “Dhaka Tribune” and the “Daily Star” have unleashed a series of columns trying to sermon India vis a vis Bangladesh. The tenor and tone are most unsavoury and looks evident that they are following some script in their anti-India campaign. Such a trend was not seen before and it appears to be on the rise. Similarly, social media is full of anti-India propaganda which appears sponsored by vested quarters. These tirades dampen the prospects of “people-to-people” contacts between the two countries. One wonders whether a common Bangladeshi who could come to Ajmer Sharif for Ziarat or get medical treatment in Indian hospitals is still thinking of India as a convenient destination or exploring other options, which are of course limited and less feasible.

On its part, Pakistan is watching and possibly designing how best to further capitalize on this fragile situation. Overtures from Pakistani leadership continue to pour in and Bangladesh is reciprocating with equal measure.

Under these circumstances, it would seem advisable for India to draw up a doable operational plan to thwart Pakistani plans as well as the anti-India rhetoric for the people to see India with trust more as a friend than a foe. Forces hostile to India are trying their best to vitiate the atmosphere to instil hate which needs to be neutralized at any cost. The challenge is serious and merits tackling without any delay.

The writer, is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal