Tactical Outreach

In a major diplomatic initiative, India reached out to the Afghan-Taliban political leadership to further strengthen the age-old traditional relationship between India and Afghanistan (predating the emergence of the Taliban). In this context, India’s Foreign Secretary, Vikram Misri, met Taliban’s acting Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, on January 8 in Dubai. The high-level meeting was significant for India’s neighbourhood and beyond, as it marked the highest-level engagement since the Taliban's takeover of Kabul in August 2021. Following the meeting, the Taliban described India as a “significant regional and economic partner.”

Later, in the statement, Afghanistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said both sides discussed expanding relations and boosting trade through Chabahar Port in Iran, which India has been developing to bypass the ports of Karachi and Gwadar in Pakistan. Further, in line with Afghanistan’s balanced and economy-focused foreign policy, the Islamic Emirate (Taliban) aims to reinforce political and economic ties with India as a crucial regional and economic partner.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs, for its part, stated after the meeting that India was considering engaging in development projects in Afghanistan and looking to boost trade ties. India, which hosts thousands of Afghan refugees, also announced plans to provide “material support” for their rehabilitation. Since late 2023, approximately one million Afghan refugees have been repatriated by Pakistan and Iran.

Additionally, in response to a request from the Afghan side, India committed to providing further material support to the Afghan health sector. Afghan officials stated that land distribution for repatriated refugees had already begun. India also offered additional assistance to Afghanistan’s health sector while both sides discussed strengthening sports ties, particularly in cricket. It may be underlined that political turbulence notwithstanding; Afghanistan has been excelling in cricket.

In June 2022, less than a year after the Taliban’s return to power, India reopened its embassy in Kabul by deploying a team of technical experts to manage the mission. However, Afghanistan’s embassy in India was closed in November 2023 after diplomats appointed by the former Afghan government, ousted by the Taliban, failed to secure visa extensions. In November last year, the Taliban announced the appointment of an Acting Consul in Mumbai. India remains one of several countries facilitating trade, aid, and medical support, having sent humanitarian aid to Afghanistan under the Taliban. This aid includes shipments of wheat, medicines, COVID-19 vaccines, and winter clothing.

The January 8 meeting also took place amid rising tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which recently launched an operation in Afghanistan’s eastern Paktika province to eliminate what it called armed groups. Islamabad has consistently accused the Pakistan Taliban of using Afghan soil to launch attacks, a charge Kabul denies. On January 8, the Afghan side also underscored its sensitivities to India’s security concerns and said they “agreed to remain in touch and continue regular contact at various levels”.

Meanwhile, Pakistani mainstream media could not ignore the Indo-Taliban development and generally reported that the Afghan Taliban’s Foreign Office described India as a “significant regional and economic partner” following its meeting with India’s most senior foreign ministry official—the highest-level talks with India since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021.

Dawn, a widely read Pakistani English daily, opined in an article that the meeting could ruffle Pakistan, which shares borders with both countries. Pakistan and Afghanistan have a severely strained bilateral relationship, with Pakistan alleging that several terrorist attacks in its territory have been launched from Afghan soil—a charge the Afghan Taliban consistently denies. Earlier this week, India’s foreign office condemned the “anti-terrorist” airstrikes conducted by Pakistan late last year on Afghan soil, targeting the UN-designated terror group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). This Indian statement has further heightened Pakistan's concerns about India’s growing closeness to the Taliban-led Afghan government.

Dwelling upon the recent development, Sujan Chinoy, Director General of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, highlighted several ironies in Pakistan’s situation. Pakistan has long viewed Afghanistan as a weak and exploitable hinterland, critical for achieving “strategic depth” against India. However, an emboldened Taliban now threatens Pakistan’s western flank, which Islamabad had long taken for granted. Chinoy further reckons that, according to a UN Security Council report, an estimated 6,000–6,500 TTP fighters are waging war against Pakistan while operating from Afghan territory. The Taliban’s support for the TTP remains strong amid increasing TTP attacks on Pakistan. Additionally, links between the Taliban, TTP, and al-Qaeda remain resilient, with the Taliban and al-Qaeda sharing common ground in combating the Islamic State (Khorasan Province). Just as the Taliban’s return had proved a boost for terrorist networks, not far away, Syria has recently been overrun by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), still regarded by the UN and US as a terrorist organization. The revocation of the USD 10 million bounty on the head of HTS leader Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa on grounds of expediency gives rise to the question of whether there is scope for similar rehabilitation of the current regime in Afghanistan.

Following the recent talks, India has committed to “provide further material support in the first instance to the health sector and for the rehabilitation of refugees” by way of humanitarian assistance. Pakistan, on the other hand, has expelled more than 500,000 refugees, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan.

According to most geopolitical and security experts, India has made a wise decision in engaging with the Taliban. The dividends in the long run are almost certain to serve large interests of India from the realistic point of view. In contrast, Pakistan stands exposed, lacking political foresight and diplomatic acumen. Following the Taliban's takeover after the US withdrawal on August 15, 2021, there was initial optimism about a strong Pak-Afghan partnership, which seemed likely to undermine Indo-Afghan ties. However, that partnership quickly crumbled and is now at an all-time low, with no signs of rapprochement in the foreseeable future. On the other hand, India’s visionary policy towards Afghanistan has begun to bear fruit.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal