Rogue state

As the global fraternity commemorated twenty years of the twin tower bombings commonly referred to as 9/11, it is time to evaluate the happenings in Afghanistan. The like-minded parties have proactively started thinking as to how to address the menace emanating from the new Taliban dispensation. The US withdrawal has not only left Afghanistan in a state of uncertainty, it has also made the entire region more perilous than before.

Within one month of the Taliban's annexation of Kabul and hasty retreat by the US and allies after a two-decade-long stay in Afghanistan, the country has just embarked upon forming a new 33-member all-male government which looks bereft of any promise to improve the well-being of the common Afghan people. This apart, it's a hurriedly formed cabinet, highly suspected to have been made at the behest of the Pakistani ISI. This is evident as the all-powerful ISI chief, Lt Gen Faiz Hameed dashed to Kabul close on the heels of the Taliban government formation unannounced and held intimate discussions with the Taliban supremo, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and other critical players in the government. It's, therefore, once again clear that it's the ISI that's calling the shots and the Imran Khan-led elected government has no say whatsoever in dealing with the new Taliban. Obviously, the Pakistani government stands completely sidelined. Also, it's a signal that the Taliban in future, is unlikely to heed any policy linked advisory from the Pakistani Foreign Ministry and instead listen to the diktat of the deep state. Now, this is a dangerous trend that has unfolded in the second spell of Taliban rule.

Besides this, the ISI chief, as per the security experts watching the developments in Afghanistan, has extracted a specific assurance from the Taliban heads, that India wouldn't be allowed to use Afghan territory for targeting Pakistan. This further indicates cementing of more reinforced relations between the Taliban and Pakistan (read ISI). Dabbling by the ISI in the political affairs of neighbouring Afghanistan is nothing new for Pakistan. With complete control of the Taliban, except the Panjshir valley, ISI is looking to run the country as its de facto ruler. Meanwhile, the trained Pakistani army is thought to be fighting along with the Taliban troops for routing the Ahmad Shah Masood loyalists in the north for absolute control.

It can be said with confidence that ordinary Afghans are not at all happy with the Taliban coming to power. Sporadic protests are visible in many places with Herat being the latest to be witnessing active protests. In the same vein, Tehran saw a spate of anti-Pakistan protests in front of its Pakistan Embassy denouncing the Taliban and Pakistan lending it unstinted support. The Afghan women in particular are deeply disappointed because of a brake on the rhythm of their education which is now segregated, punched with heavy restrictions. Regression is on the anvil in the sphere of education and society will, in all likelihood, face the battering. Afghanistan, according to UN sources, has severe food shortages and malnutrition amongst the children. The Taliban government doesn't seem to have any plans to address them, nor is Pakistan interested in holding Kabul's hand to ameliorate the deteriorating humane problems. There is not a single woman in the new Taliban cabinet. There is no pressure from any international quarters to highlight this omission. Taliban will feel more encouraged because of this glaring indifference. Hence, socially, the future of women in Afghanistan looks bleak.

Other than these social factors, there are numerous security challenges which Taliban has to face. The inter-factional feuds, with the inclusion of the turbulent warlords and armed resistance, may threaten in due course. How long can the Taliban use its guns to silence the protests or uprisings? How to control the terror groups like ISIS (K), Al Qaeda, the Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and their affiliates, remains a daunting task?

The appointment of Sirajuddin Haqqani as the new Interior Minister in the Taliban cabinet confirms without any iota of doubt that he is the appointee of Pakistan's ISI and would parrot only what his mentors say. This has serious security implications for India which now needs to tread its chart with abundant caution. Haqqani and the ISI are a deadly combination, posing a menace to Indian security interests. ISI will try to make up with its pawns placed in crucial places. Pakistan's ignorance would turn the same Taliban into its own Frankenstein which will be very hard to control. ISIS (K) and Al Qaeda are ruthless and they can transcend Pakistan's border to harm Pakistani interests. The world at large is getting inspired by ISIS teachings. Islamic radicals are waiting for the right opportunity to strike. Auckland, New Zealand saw a spate of at least six knife attacks last week from a Sri Lankan ISIS-inspired ultra. We don't know how many more may spring a surprise with such lone-wolf attacks. Pakistan shouldn't be happy that it being a Muslim majority state, will remain untouched by such hostile terror groups. There are other soft targets within Pakistan, which can be vulnerable to ISIS and disgruntled Taliban elements. So, Pakistan needs to watch out as its dissent in good measure is already brewing.

In the meantime, India saw a flurry of activities when Russian top official, Nikolai Patrushev, recently held extensive discussions with Indian NSA AK Doval on the developments in Afghanistan. According to reliable sources, the discussions were meaningful and the Russian dignitary was impressed upon the security concerns of India. Similar discussions were held by the UK Secret Service (MI6) chief, Richard Moore and CIA head William Burnes with the Indian NSA and its team. India's active role in its ceaseless interactions with other world players is expected to pay dividends. However, the Taliban and ISI nexus needs to be severed at the earliest, either diplomatically or operationally, as that would be in the larger interest of peace in the region.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, a security analyst and a former National Security Advisor to the PM of Mauritius. Views expressed are personal