Renewed overture

In the wake of enormous Indian help for the quake victims in tremor hit Türkiye, India and Türkiye's bilateral ties, which has been rough for the past several years, especially under the Presidentship of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, have raised hopes to improve following the Indian magnanimity with massive relief package exhibiting an extraordinary gesture. The predominant reasons for such unpleasant ties in the past have been Erdogan’s blatant, indiscreet and unsavoury criticism of India on his stand on Kashmir and more crucially, Türkiye's much vocal and acerbic rhetoric at the UN General Assembly (UNGA) criticizing India in its 2019 meet particularly on the abrogation of Article 370 and status of Kashmir. President Erdogan had repeatedly avowed his support to Pakistan even to the extent of offering military help to fight with the Pakistani armed forces in Kashmir which were more unstatesmanlike statements bereft of any political maturity or wisdom. Erdogan’s anti-India speeches in the past have been belligerent and lacklustre, in both tone and tenor.

However, the recent earthquake that hit Türkiye claiming well over 35,000 lives seems to change the dynamic of the relationship. This seems to have happened due to India’s generous offer of large-scale medical and relief assistance including a contingent of the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and dog squads to aid the battered state of catastrophe.

Meanwhile, reacting to the Indian help, the Turkish Ambassador in India, Firat Sunel said that India was among the first countries to respond as soon as medical assistance was sought. As on February 10, India had sent six flights with aid to Turkey as part of Operation Dost with emergency supplies, rescue personnel, sniffer dog squads, medicine and medical equipment, and other relief material. Ambassador Sunel further said that Operation Dost was a symbolic operation which already proves that India and Turkey were friends calling for further deepening of relations. These statements, full of warmth, signal a renewed Turkish overture to befriend India which was hitherto not seen in recent times.

On the contrary, however, earlier in January this year, Türkiye's ruling party set up a Kashmir Committee to present a “solution” for the “disputed” region which actually echoes Pakistan’s position. This announcement was made to the Turkish parliamentarians by Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) President, Sultan Mehmood Chaudhary. The attendees at the meeting included Turkish Member of Parliament and Deputy Chairperson of the AK Party and Chairperson of Foreign Affairs Committee Efkan Ala, Ahmet Yildiz, Ephif Demir Kiran, Fevezi Sanverdi, Memet Aslan, Ibrahim Anoor and others. Sultan Mehmood Chaudhry expressed his gratitude to the ruling party of Türkiye, especially Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for openly supporting the Kashmir cause. This development unfortunately shows that Pakistan is still trying to woo Türkiye by keeping the Kashmir issue alive. However, this may be left behind after the recent Indian massive relief package to Türkiye in aid of the quake victims and relief and rescue operations. That is precisely why this negative development did not elicit any worthwhile response in the media or even in political circles.

In a related development, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hailed support from the international community in the aftermath of the earthquake and asserted that this demonstrated the necessity of permanent international solidarity. This statement is being viewed as significant and it also includes by implication an acknowledgement of India’s gesture because Erdogan is ordinarily thought to be uncharitable and undiplomatic in his remarks. He is obviously shaken by the massive earthquake and hails the global fraternity in an hour of grief and despair, not only to acknowledge the gesture but also to reach out to as many countries as possible to generate a sense of goodwill. In other words, he is trying to mend ties with countries he had earlier irked by his caustic speeches and actions.

On its part, India also perhaps needs to take Türkiye onboard, possibly to neutralize Pakistan’s proximity to Türkiye adversely affecting India’s geo-political and security interests. This should enable India to gain a fresh diplomatic foothold vis-à-vis Türkiye. India’s closeness to Türkiye would, in all likelihood, take the wind out of the sails of a belligerent Pakistan which has been relying on Türkiye as a staunch ally consistently waging a proxy war on Kashmir. This may also stop the anti-India tirade by Türkiye at the UN and other international forums. Few experts even reckon that the India-Türkiye thaw in the relationship might abate, if not completely cease. Domestically, religious indoctrination of youth who have gone astray with the tenets of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is also likely to take a hit in India, Bangladesh and other parts of the region. Yet, it could, however, be a wishful thought, nevertheless Indo-Turkish ties may see a marked amelioration following India’s humanitarian gesture to Türkiye.

The writer is Adviser NatStrat, a security analyst and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal