Hostility at its Worst

Pakistan and Afghanistan's ties are at their lowest point today. On December 23, after nearly 15 months of strained relations, Pakistan dispatched a high-level delegation led by Ambassador Muhammad Sadiq, the country's special representative, to Kabul. The visit was part of a renewed effort to reset troubled relations with Afghanistan.

In the past year, Pakistan severed contacts with Afghanistan, apparently to pressure the interim Afghan government into taking action against the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its affiliates. According to security experts, Pakistan even refrained from appointing a special envoy for Afghanistan for several weeks after Ambassador Asif Durrani stepped down in September last year. However, the government and decision-makers revised their strategy and persuaded Ambassador Sadiq to return as Pakistan's Afghan troubleshooter. Sadiq, a veteran diplomat, had previously held the same position but resigned after developing differences with the previous establishment over the policy of holding direct talks with the TTP. His reappointment signalled an effort to prioritize diplomacy. Within days of his return, Sadiq facilitated a meeting between Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and the Afghan acting ambassador in Islamabad. Shortly afterward, he travelled to Kabul to end the prolonged diplomatic impasse.

The visit occurred amid escalating terrorist attacks. Just two days before his departure, TTP militants ambushed a check post in South Waziristan, killing 16 Pakistani soldiers. Sadiq's primary objective was to urge the Taliban leadership to reconsider their stance on the TTP. On the first day of his visit, he held constructive discussions with Afghan Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani. He later met with Afghan Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. However, tensions escalated on the night of December 24, when Afghanistan alleged that Pakistan had carried out airstrikes in the Bermal district of Paktika province. The Taliban claimed Pakistan bombed four locations in a region known to be a stronghold of the TTP and its affiliates. Pakistan, for its part, stated that the action was an intelligence-based operation (IBO) against terrorists in "border areas." The Taliban condemned the strikes and summoned a senior Pakistani diplomat in Kabul to lodge a strong protest. All of this unfolded while Ambassador Sadiq was still in Kabul.

Meanwhile, in Islamabad, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif issued a strong statement emphasizing that while Pakistan desired improved ties with Afghanistan, such relations were untenable if Afghanistan continued harbouring terrorist groups. He stressed that the TTP's presence across the border was a red line for Pakistan. The same day, Pakistan's chief military spokesperson reiterated that terrorist attacks were originating from Afghan territory.

Security professionals and analysts argue that relations with Afghanistan have become Pakistan's Achilles' heel. Pakistan hugely and glaringly celebrated the Taliban's return to power in August 2021, hoping that the change of government would help further its interests. However, subsequent developments have only worsened Pakistan's challenges. Reports indicate that Pakistan conducts an average of 169 intelligence-based operations daily against terrorists. This year, 925 terrorists were killed in these operations, while 383 Pakistani security personnel lost their lives. The Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies recorded 856 terrorist attacks in 2024, surpassing the 645 incidents reported in 2023. The numbers reflect a clear peril for Pakistan and put the relationship with Afghanistan on a thin edge.

According to Al Jazeera, a sharp escalation in hostilities between Pakistan and Afghanistan has reached serious proportions. This latest round of cross-border fighting stems from what Pakistan claims is its response to regular attacks by the armed group TTP, which Islamabad alleges has found safe haven across the border in Afghanistan. The most recent TTP attack, on December 21, resulted in the deaths of at least 16 Pakistani soldiers. Pakistani military sources confirmed to Al Jazeera that on December 24, 2024, Pakistan launched airstrikes in Afghanistan’s Paktia province, which borders Pakistan’s tribal district of South Waziristan.

It may be reiterated that for decades, Pakistan was considered a patron of the Afghan Taliban, who first came to power in 1996. Pakistan was believed to wield significant influence over the group, providing shelter, funding, and diplomatic backing. After the United States-led invasion of Afghanistan following the 9/11 attacks, many Afghan Taliban leaders sought refuge in Pakistan. Amid American drone strikes in Pakistan’s border regions, the TTP, often referred to as the Pakistan Taliban, emerged.

Over the past two years, both nations have engaged in high-level diplomatic meetings. These included visits by Pakistan’s defence minister and the chief of its intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), in February last year. Later, Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited Islamabad, where he also held talks with Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir. Despite these efforts, violence within Pakistan has continued unabated. According to Pakistan’s Ministry of Interior, more than 1,500 violent incidents in the first 10 months of this year have killed at least 924 people, including 570 law enforcement personnel and 351 civilians.

It is quite unlikely that the Taliban would accept Pakistani demands for action against TTP leaders in Afghanistan’s border areas. Such action would disrupt the Taliban’s equilibrium with the TTP and create space for other, more extreme groups such as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). The Taliban leaders are deploying the same logic that Pakistan used for nearly two decades, dismissing demands by the former Afghan government and the United States to curb Taliban activities within its territories. Like Pakistan then, the Taliban now argues that the TTP is an internal Pakistani issue and that Islamabad must resolve its problems domestically.

The Pakistani army, according to independent assessments, is likely to continue bombing Afghan territory with relative impunity, facing only minor international condemnation. As the long-term “guardian of security” in the country, the army is under tremendous pressure to demonstrate tangible action in countering militancy and protecting infrastructure, including Chinese-invested economic projects in Baluchistan. Striking Afghan territory also sends a political signal to the Pakistani population.

In sum, Pakistan-Afghanistan ties have reached a nadir, showing no signs of improvement. On the contrary, the situation raises the likelihood of heightened hostilities in the foreseeable future.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal