Caught in a crossfire

There have been interesting and mixed reactions in Pakistan’s polity and security establishment in the aftermath of the US electoral verdict, which returned Donald Trump as the next President of the United States. In the not-so-distant past, Pakistan’s relations with the US have been marked by unease and uncertainty. The US has always viewed Pakistan with suspicion, chiefly due to its close ties with China, which has been a point of contention for the US. This element is expected to remain crucial, as Trump, despite his mercurial unpredictability, is unlikely to be as soft on Pakistan as some of his Republican predecessors.

To further dwell upon the subject from a historical perspective, it is not out of context to recall that President Richard Nixon offered unwavering support to Pakistan during its military aggression against India, which ultimately led to the dismemberment of Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh. Nixon, thought to be blindly influenced by Henry Kissinger’s recommendations, even went so far as to dispatch the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet in a show of force to intimidate India. However, this strategy failed, and India prevailed. Historically, the US has been supportive of Pakistan through financial aid, military assistance, and the supply of lethal hardware. This support has often emboldened Pakistan, as seen in successive wars with India, most notably in 1965 when US-supplied Patton tanks were destroyed by Indian armed forces.

Reverting to Trump’s victory and fallouts for Pakistan, it is important to note that this time, Trump’s relations with India are marked by warmth and a renewed bonhomie. This is largely due to the extraordinary personal chemistry and strong rapport between Prime Minister Modi and Trump. While this dynamic was evident during Trump’s previous term, it appears even more reinforced now, potentially reducing the likelihood of Trump adopting a soft stance towards Pakistan.

Also, the Trump administration is expected to exert increased pressure on Pakistan to rein in home-grown terror affiliates, particularly those involved in transnational acts of terrorism. Pakistan, in all likelihood, will face the heat of this pressure. If such measures are sustained, Pakistan may be compelled to slow down its covert operations targeting India, including cross-border terrorist activities in Kashmir, which have seen a recent surge. Additionally, the new Trump administration might closely monitor the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) proceedings to ensure that terror financing in Pakistan remains under check.

On its part, Pakistan will attempt, albeit feebly, to persuade Trump to intervene with India in an effort to "resolve" the Kashmir issue. However, it remains to be seen whether Trump prioritizes this sensitive matter at all.

Meanwhile, some geopolitical experts in Pakistan reckon that Trump is likely to continue with Joe Biden’s policy of low-intensity engagement with Islamabad, characterized by neither significant aid nor sanctions. They further assess that under Trump, the US-Pakistan relationship will be managed primarily by the State Department and the Pentagon. Trump’s approach will likely focus on what each state can offer the US.

Furthermore, the US would like to limit China’s political and economic influence in Pakistan. Under Trump, Washington might expect Islamabad to avoid undermining India’s centrality to its Indo-Pacific strategy. Regarding Afghanistan, its stability remains fundamental to broader regional security, including that of Pakistan. Meanwhile, a group of security advisers in Pakistan suggest that the country must ensure its ties with the US are handled through quiet diplomacy, especially if they involve public interest linked issues.

It must be stated that Pakistan’s foreign policy perhaps is not the best at these times. US angst against Pakistan was more than visible from the last phase of Imran Khan’s premiership, ultimately leading to his unceremonious ouster. Islamabad Foreign Office, therefore, has to reorient its policy towards the US under Trump. A seasoned Pakistan Ambassador is perhaps a good beginning to be placed in Washington DC to handle the State Department with professional dexterity requiring deft dealing. As of now, it doesn’t seem promising. The challenge, therefore, appears huge and to keep Trump and his hawks on the right side and in good humour, is indeed a tough task at hand. The current fragile political dispensation in Pakistan and a politicized army have to work overtime to be on the same page with Trump or else the consequences are likely to be unfavourable to Pakistan.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal