A Tricky Terrain

India’s neighbourhood is hardly quiet or dull, as something or the other keeps happening every other day. On its western side, Pakistan remains turbulent with volatile political and terrorist-linked violent activities, while on its eastern side, Bangladesh has been in prominence due to a series of disturbing developments in the wake of Sheikh Hasina’s inglorious departure from the country and power nearly six months ago.

Now, we see Myanmar's junta has recently extended its military rule in the country for another six months. It may be recalled that the country, under Commander-in-Chief General Min Aung Hlaing, imposed military rule on February 1, 2021, and arrested its popular leader Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK), who continues to remain under detention with no visible signs of release in the foreseeable future. This is despite the international community trying hard to prevail upon the military rulers to free her.

Significantly, against this backdrop, Myanmar’s military has prolonged the state of emergency for another six months, as perhaps it finds it difficult to maintain its increasingly loose hold on power, with armed groups squabbling on different fronts across the country. The military-controlled National Defence and Security Council renewed the emergency rule in a meeting (January 31) in the capital, Naypyidaw, a day before the four-year anniversary of a coup that pushed the country into uncertainty after ten years of fledgling democracy.

In a statement, it was declared, “All members of the National Defence and Security Council, including the Commander-in-Chief as well as the acting President, decided in unison to extend the state of emergency for another six months according to Section 425 of the 2008 constitution.” Further, “There are still more tasks to be done to hold the general election successfully. Especially for a free and fair election, stability and peace are still needed,” state-run MRTV said on its Telegram channel while announcing the extension of emergency rule.

Earlier, justifying the coup, the military had claimed—without any evidence—that the National League for Democracy (NLD) had committed widespread voter fraud in the 2020 elections, which it won by a landslide three months earlier. It may be recalled that the military imposed a year-long state of emergency after seizing power, extending it for six-month intervals multiple times as it brutally crushed peaceful pro-democracy protests and battled ethnic armed groups and anti-military fighters that rose in response to the coup.

The military’s Commander-in-Chief, Min Aung Hlaing—who is also serving as the country’s self-appointed Prime Minister and President—had promised to hold elections by August 2023 but has repeatedly delayed doing so, apparently by design and malintent, due to the increasingly intense armed rebellion unfolding across the country.

Crucially, Myanmar’s military has suffered a string of humiliating reverses in the north and west of the country since late 2023, in what the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) has described as a crisis of an “unprecedented scale” for the military, which has dominated the country’s politics since the 1960s. Despite this turmoil, growing internal and external pressure means the military is widely expected to hold the long-delayed national elections in late 2025. Meanwhile, opposition groups have vowed to violently disrupt the polls, which they condemn as an attempt to legitimise the military regime that seized power four years ago.

Richard Horsey, Myanmar Adviser to the Crisis Group, disclosed to the media house that most indications point to elections finally being held later this year, with November traditionally being the month in which polls ordinarily commence in Myanmar. The National Defence and Security Council meeting is scheduled for July 31, or an ad hoc meeting could be called before then to potentially declare an end to the state of emergency. Once that happens, they will have six months to organise the polls. Horsey further divulged that the end of the state of emergency and the subsequent elections imply a “return to rule by the 2008 military-drafted constitution,” a step that is expected to be welcomed by members of Myanmar’s military and possibly by its main backer, China.

Analysing the development, the prominent Thailand-based newspaper Bangkok Post opines that the civil war has raised concerns in Beijing over the security of Chinese projects in Myanmar and border trade. China has played a key role in brokering peace talks between the junta and ethnic armed groups, with the latest being the Myanmar generals' ceasefire agreement with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army earlier last month.

Importantly, General Min Aung Hlaing had requested China’s continued support at a ceremony to celebrate the Lunar New Year. In the meantime, the armed rebellion has continued to surge in Myanmar’s eastern and northern regions after most of western Rakhine State came under the control of the Arakan Army, raising concerns for China-funded projects, including the Sino-Myanmar pipeline. Opposition forces have also gained control of most border towns, including some airports and trade hubs near China, crippling a major source of revenue for the junta.

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), an armed group fighting the junta, wrested control of a mining region in October that is a major supplier of rare earth oxides to China. China’s rare earth ore imports from Myanmar have yet to recover, according to a report by the Shanghai Metal Market.

In other fresh developments, resistance fighters led by the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) recently seized the junta’s strategic Mae Pale base in Mon State’s Belin Township. Fighters from the People’s Defence Force (PDF), Bamar People’s Liberation Army (BPLA), and Force for Federal Democracy (FFD) were also led by the KNLA, the armed wing of the country’s oldest ethnic revolutionary group, the Karen National Union (KNU).

Many more junta troops were claimed to have been killed in the fighting, as mentioned in The Irrawaddy. Late last year, the KNLA-led joint forces recaptured the Manerplaw area of Karen State, where KNU headquarters had been based 30 years ago.

As military rule stands extended by the junta for another six months, the situation merits close observation by Myanmar analysts and also by the new Trump administration, which might take action against the junta—possibly as a counterweight to military rule and, more importantly, to contain Chinese influence.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal