A simmering threat

The world woke up to horrifying news on the eve of the New Year as information started trickling in from New Orleans (Louisiana, United States) about the cold-blooded killing of over a dozen innocents in the bustling French Quarter during New Year revelry. A man, later suspected to have links with the Islamic State (IS) after an IS flag was found in his vehicle, rammed his pickup truck into the crowd, aiming to kill as many as possible. Identified as Shamsuddin Jabbar (42), a US national from Texas and an American war veteran, he was believed to have seen action in the Afghan war, where he was possibly religiously radicalised. Records, meanwhile, also suggest that he was previously charged with a couple of petty offenses but was let off.

After the reckless ramming by Jabbar, which killed so many, he was killed by the police in a fierce gunfight. The Mayor of New Orleans described the killing of the innocents as a major terror-related incident, while the Police Commissioner stated that the terrorist was hellbent on creating carnage and causing the damage he did. In fact, Jabbar attempted to run over as many as he could, and after his pickup truck was stopped, he emerged and opened fire on officers, who returned fire and killed him.

In the meantime, it was revealed that the attacker had disclosed in a video recording made before the assault that he had joined the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and had originally planned to harm his relatives and friends but later abandoned those plans. Earlier, he had posted five videos on Facebook on the morning of the attack, in which he expressed his support for IS. According to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Jabbar was entirely inspired by ISIS. The FBI also recovered a black ISIS banner from the pickup truck used in the terror attack.

Preliminary investigations indicate that Jabbar, while in the U.S. Army, served as a Human Resource Specialist and was also an expert in Information Technology. He was a recipient of several medals for good conduct and achievement, as well as for successfully completing courses in parachute jumping school. It’s baffling to see that a decorated U.S. Army veteran had such a conflicting personality and went on this killing spree, evading notice by many about his negative personality traits.

It is relevant to reiterate that the world is far more unsafe today than before, and the trend is increasingly fraught with threats. Immediately before the New Orleans terror attack, a lone jihadi, Taleb Al Abulmohsen, killed five and injured over 200 with his car at a Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany, last fortnight. This is a clear indication that lone-wolf attacks are becoming more routine than exceptional. If this pattern continues, it could be more damaging than the world imagines. Jihadi elements are everywhere. It’s coincidental that these two incidents (New Orleans and Magdeburg) happened in Western countries. However, many other parts of Europe, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and South Asia remain highly vulnerable to lone jihadi-style attacks. Security experts estimate that a significant number of radicalised extremists are waiting to strike at an opportune moment. It’s just a question of timing, that’s all.

Following incidents can give an idea about the terror violence in the past:

Germany, December 20, 2024: A man rammed a car through a crowd at a Christmas market in Magdeburg, killing five people.

China, November 11, 2024: A man drove into a crowd at a sports center in Zhuhai, killing 35 people.

US, November 2022: In Wisconsin, a man killed six people by driving his SUV into a Christmas parade near Milwaukee.

Canada, June 2022: A self-confessed white nationalist ran over and killed four members of a Muslim family with his pickup truck.

Canada, April 2018: A man ploughed a rented van into dozens of people in downtown Toronto, killing 11.

US, October 2017: An Uzbek national rammed a truck onto a Manhattan bike path, killing eight people.

Spain, August 2017: A man drove a car into crowds at a popular tourist spot in Barcelona, killing 13 people.

US, May 2017: A US Navy veteran rammed his car into pedestrians at Times Square, killing a woman and injuring 22 others.

UK, March 2017: A car sped across Westminster Bridge, mowing down four people outside Parliament.

Germany, December 2016: A failed Tunisian asylum seeker hijacked a truck, killed its driver, and ploughed it into a crowded Berlin Christmas market, killing 11.

France, July 2016: A gunman drove a truck into a crowd celebrating Bastille Day in Nice, killing 86 people.

Earlier, the world believed that after the tough measures adopted by the US following the 9/11 attacks and the extermination of Osama bin Laden in 2011, the era of terrorism was over. However, this assumption has proven to be incorrect. Terror attacks continue to pinprick and haunt at steady intervals and hardly any country is there which is spared from the shadow of terror. Recent developments, including the Gaza conflict last year, the fallout from the killing of Hezbollah leadership, attacks on Iran and Lebanon, the collapse of the Syrian regime, and other related events, have heightened radicalisation and increased threat levels. The global intelligence community must consider these developments and coordinate with terror-prone countries to implement a synchronised action plan to prevent planned or lone-wolf attacks.

In a related development, US President-elect Donald Trump, reacting to the New Orleans attack, blamed his predecessor, Joe Biden, for the incident, insinuating that faulty border policies allowed criminals from outside to commit such acts. However, the perpetrator, Jabbar, was a US-born citizen who had served in the US military. Such accusations are expected to continue with more vigour. According to former Turkish diplomat Aydin Sezer, the New Orleans attack has the potential to trigger a new wave of similar incidents, often referred to as “individual terrorism.”

Individual terrorism, lone-wolf attacks, or lone-jihadi acts are different terms for the same phenomenon. They ring a serious wakeup call laden with humongous and threatening situation presenting the world with a menacing challenge. Terrorism today has no geographical boundaries. It will transcend every border to strike at the heart of its target. Hence, security in 2025 becomes the biggest challenge to face. Sooner it is heeded, the better it is.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal