A Brewing Storm

Governments come and go. Some changes are effected through elections conducted by democratic means, some through military coups, and a few through undemocratic ways due to unforeseen and extraordinary circumstances. Bangladesh, in a very surprising development, underwent a regime change in August last year following Sheikh Hasina’s exit.

The incidents that ensued in Bangladesh in the aftermath of the regime change saw large-scale violence, killings, rape, attacks on minorities, the mass escape of hardened criminals from prisons, and a general breakdown of law and order in the country. This has put the country in a very precarious situation, and even after more than six months, the deeply worsening scene remains unchanged. This is notwithstanding the fact that the Army Chief, now the most powerful functionary in the new dispensation, has issued a series of warnings that seem largely unheeded.

However, the most disturbing development is the resurgence of Islamic extremist forces, which have recently come to the fore. Only a week ago, the banned Hizb-ut-Tahrir took to the streets of Dhaka in considerable numbers, challenging law enforcers. Many were arrested, and several were injured. In the wake of Hasina’s exit, these fanatics have started raising their ugly heads. Besides the security implications for India, their rise also poses a threat to the Bangladeshi establishment. They also have the propensity to unite with other religion-based outfits with extreme ideologies, threatening peace and tranquillity in the region.

Meanwhile, the interim government in Bangladesh has eased long-standing restrictions on extremist organisations, including releasing high-profile militants and relaxing visa restrictions for certain foreign nationals. Such policies have emboldened extremist groups by giving them greater operational latitude. According to some think tanks, in 2024, there were 205 incidents of minority persecution, including attacks on Hindus, Buddhists, Ahmadiyyas, and Shias.

Here are some brief profiles of such outfits that are menacingly trying to make their presence felt. This also provides an overview of the security scenario and the potential threats to Indian states bordering Bangladesh, including West Bengal and Assam:

1. Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT): Once banned in Bangladesh for its radical pan-Islamist agenda, HuT has re-emerged in the wake of the political transition. Under the present government, weakened state repression and a turbulent political climate have allowed HuT to stage public rallies—such as the most recent “March for Khilafat” in Dhaka. The group’s longstanding demand for a transnational caliphate and its anti-secular, anti-democratic rhetoric are of critical concern for India. By inspiring extremist sympathies along the porous Indo-Bangladeshi border, HuT’s resurgence risks spillover militancy that could destabilise sensitive border regions.

2. Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami Bangladesh (HuJIB): HuJIB has a long history of militancy in Bangladesh and is known for its violent operations. The Yunus government’s relaxed stance toward extremist elements has provided HuJIB with renewed operational latitude. Recent reports indicate a rise in their recruitment drives and public demonstrations. Their strategy of targeting secular institutions and mobilising extremist youth directly threatens regional stability, as the group’s networks may eventually be used as launching pads for cross-border terrorism.

3. Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB): JMB, notorious for its involvement in past terrorist attacks, seems to be regaining strength in the current climate. The interim government’s policies—such as releasing convicted militants and easing surveillance—have created openings for groups like JMB to rebuild their networks. JMB follows the ideals of the Taliban militia and propagates a movement based on jihad.

4. Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS): As the student wing of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), ICS has long been active on campuses. In light of the political change, ICS has found new energy, staging rallies and disseminating extremist propaganda with renewed vigour. Their focus on radicalising university students not only undermines secular educational values but also builds a reservoir of militant sympathisers. Given India’s northeastern regions with fragile borders, the ideological influence of ICS could contribute to cross-border mobilisation and act as a breeding ground for potential terrorist elements.

5. Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT): ABT is a militant outfit with documented links to the broader Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent network. Recent reports suggest that under the interim government, ABT has stepped up recruitment and operational planning. Their propaganda is overtly anti-secular and anti-India, with documented attempts to form sleeper cells and orchestrate attacks across the border. The group’s enhanced activities—including the alleged release of high-profile militants—pose a direct challenge to India’s national security, particularly in border states where infiltration risks are high.

6. Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT): LeT remains one of South Asia’s most dangerous militant organisations, with a long history of anti-India terrorism. There is concern that the current political transitions in Bangladesh might offer LeT a new operational foothold in parts of India. Reports also indicate that elements of LeT could use Bangladesh as a transit or staging area, especially if state controls loosen further under the present government. LeT’s established networks and ability to coordinate with other extremist groups make it a particularly dangerous actor whose resurgence in the region could lead to renewed cross-border terrorism.

Similarly, Hizb-ut-Tawhid (HT), though less widely publicised than HuT, also appears to be capitalising on the new political environment. Allah’r Dal and Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB) have emerged as other fringe groups leveraging the post-Hasina power vacuum, representing a new wave of Islamist mobilisation amid the political upheaval. With disaffected segments of the population rallying around calls for the re-Islamisation of the state, JMJB has rapidly built a grassroots following. Their emphasis on enforcing Sharia law and denouncing secular governance resonates with certain sections of society disillusioned by past administrations. The rise of JMJB and its affiliates could catalyse further radicalisation, potentially leading to anti-India activities, especially along sensitive border regions.

Most importantly, a shift toward Islamist extremism in Bangladesh could complicate India’s diplomatic efforts, especially given that New Delhi and Dhaka have long relied on each other as counter-terrorism partners. Significantly, when considered together, developments in Syria, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh form an “Islamic triad” that could have a compounding influence on the ideological landscape among supporters of Bangladesh-based religious extremists. The new Syrian government’s increasing willingness to accommodate Islamist elements in its coalition—a shift that could lead to a government visibly integrating Islamist voices—may provide a political blueprint for extremist interpretations of Islam.

With increased visibility on social media and through street mobilisations in Bangladesh, these groups are using incendiary rhetoric to call for the establishment of Islamic rule and to vilify secular and non-Muslim communities. This wake-up call should alert Indian counter-terrorism experts to strengthen their intelligence apparatus to ensure that Indian security interests are not adversely affected by these developments. Another factor not to be overlooked is the growing bonhomie between Pakistan and Bangladesh, with the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) seeking to capitalise on the situation through covert actions aimed at undermining Indian security interests.

The convergence of these factors could incite anger and fuel anti-India narratives among certain segments of a particular faith. This raises concerns not only about the possibility of cross-border militant infiltration but also about the long-term impact on communal harmony and political engagement within India.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal