The promise of EVs

In the various mitigation strategies to address climate change, we have discussed renewable energy sources so far: solar, wind, wave & tidal, nuclear, and biomass. We also discussed the importance of grid flexibility. We will now turn our attention to the Transport sector and discuss various mitigation strategies in this sector: from Electric Vehicles to Battery technology to Mass Transit and Buses, Trains, Trucking, Aviation and Shipping. We will begin with a discussion on Electric Vehicles.

Electric vehicles: importance in mitigation

Electric cars are not new and have been around for hundreds of years, with the first prototype built in 1828 by Hungarian physicist Anyos Jedlik. In 1891, Henry Ford and Thomas Edison collaborated on making an electrical car. Even though Edison pitched for electric cars and was working on efficient batteries, Ford was more inclined to the combustion engine. The Model A and Model T, invented by Ford became runaway hits. Even after that, electric cars were popular in the US all through the 19th century because of their simplicity and longer range as compared to steam-powered engines. The Internal Combustion Engine and the massive highway development in the US allowed longer distances needed to be traversed, for which the electric cars were not equipped.

Even though the internal combustion engine was more efficient at covering higher distances, the environment has paid a heavy price. These engines, which are fitted in cars and trucks run on fossil fuels and have a massive carbon footprint, second only to coal and gas power. Electric vehicles are an important part of the strategy in most countries today to reach net zero targets. Electric cars are not only more efficient, their running costs are also lower than petrol/diesel cars. For example, the popular Tata Nexon EV has a running cost of about Rs one per kilometre (assuming you run the car for 60 km per day and electricity costs Rs 10/unit). This is much lower than the Rs 6.6 per kilometre for a Tata Nexon petrol variant. If one takes yearly calculations, the difference is even more stark. The EV has an annual running cost of Rs 15000 as compared to Rs1.25 lakhs for the petrol variant.

The US, EU and China are the world leaders in the EV market, with China topping the chart accounting for 60 per cent of EV sales in the world in 2023. About 15 per cent of new cars sold in the world in 2023 were EVs. The US company Tesla is the world’s largest EV manufacturer in the world in terms of valuations, with Chinese companies such as Byd and Xiaomi fast catching up. However, according to statista.com, Byd sold 1.86 million plug-in EVs, which is slightly higher than the 1.3 million EVs sold by Tesla in 2022. With governments such as the US, China, EU and India providing attractive subsidies to EV manufacturing, and the Net Zero commitments looming large, the presence of EVs in the world is going to rise. In addition, with the battery costs coming down and the charging infrastructure improving, it is expected that EVs will account for 50 per cent of all cars in the world by 2035. This would mean that there would be 65 million EVs in the world in 2035.

The rising presence of EVs is already having an impact on the oil industry and the conventional auto market, and this impact will be even more disruptive for these sectors in the years to come. The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook for 2024 says that the growth in EVs would reduce Oil and Gas demand by 6 million barrels per day by 2030. Big EV companies such as Tesla and Byd have already challenged other automakers such as Mercedes, BMW, Volkswagen, Ford and General Motors to innovate in the EV segment.

Electric Vehicles continue to have the same challenge as when they were first invented in the 19th century: that of range anxiety. While this is improving with more efficient batteries, it continues to be an issue.

Conclusion

The EV revolution will be ironic since EVs were shut down by the internal combustion engine in the late 19th and 20th centuries. The wheel has come full circle, with EVs all set to displace the conventional auto sector. The EV revolution is being led by China, the EU and the US, but is slowly spreading to other countries in Asia and Africa. However, the success of EVs will depend on falling battery costs and more efficient batteries, which will address the issue of range anxiety.

The writer is Additional Chief Secretary, Department of Mass Education Extension and Library Services and Department of Cooperation, Government of West Bengal