Feeding the Faultline

Tamil Nadu is leading the Southern states yet again in their fight against the political hegemony of the northern states. This time the Tamil Chief Minister has raised the issue of political marginalization of Southern states due to the proposed delimitation of Lok Sabha seats in 2026 on the basis of population. An all-party meeting chaired by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin in Chennai on Wednesday (March 5, 2025), attended by 59 registered political parties of Tamil Naidu, unanimously urged the Union government to retain the existing number of Lok Sabha seats and the constitutional boundaries for the next 30 years beyond 2026. A resolution adopted at the meeting said Tamil Nadu’s existing 7.18 per cent of the total seats must not be reduced under any circumstances during the delimitation exercise. (In 2001, the 84th Constitutional Amendment had frozen the constituency boundaries till the first Census after 2026.).

On March 22, in a conclave convened by DMK chief and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin, the leadership of anti-BJP parties, including the Congress, from states in the South, Punjab and Odisha, forged a broad coalition against the proposed delimitation exercise. DMK chose not to invite INDIA parties from North, such as SP and RJD, and from Maharashtra like Sena (UBT) and NCP, most of whom are not opposed to delimitation. The TMC, which was invited, skipped the convention, as it considers issues like duplicate EPIC numbers are more important to it now given the fact that West Bengal is going to Assembly elections next year, reports The Indian Express. Political analysts consider the Chennai gathering as a significant show of strength by Opposition parties against the BJP, as concerns mount over potential shifts in parliamentary seat allocations. The issue of delimitation has triggered apprehensions, particularly in southern states, which fear a loss of political representation in favour of northern states due to population-based seat redistribution. As Lok Sabha seats for West Bengal are likely to be increased from the existing 42, it appears TMC has not yet taken any firm stand on the delimitation issue.

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin has emerged as the rallying point on the critical issue of delimitation of constituencies. He has also articulated the southern states’ grievances over the distribution of the Centre’s tax revenues; and has resisted New Delhi’s perceived attempts to spread Hindi through the three-language formula. The proposed delimitation of Parliamentary seats and the three language formula, as suggested by the new Education Policy (2020), have accentuated the widening South North divide of India. Data reveals that the southern states are excelling in industry, infrastructure, and education, while the northern states lag due to agrarian focus, weak institutions, and low growth. The southern leaders have rightly alleged that the delimitation process will penalize them for the improved socio economic condition of their states and for rigorous implementation of population control programs suggested by the Union government.

Basis of Delimitation

Population of the State is the basis of allocation of seats of the Lok Sabha. As far as possible, every State gets representation in the Lok Sabha in proportion to its population as per census figures. In Lok Sabha, there is reservation of seats for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. Here also census figures are taken into account. Allocation of seats for Scheduled Castes and Tribes in the Lok Sabha are made on the basis of proportion of Scheduled Castes and Tribes in the State concerned to that of the total population.

The Delimitation Commission of India was established, in 1951, by the Government of India, tasked with redrawing the boundaries of legislative assembly and Lok Sabha constituencies based on the last census. Till now, Delimitation commissions have been set up four times—in 1953, 1962, 1972 and 2002—under Delimitation Commission Acts of 1952, 1962, 1972 and 2002. The union government had suspended delimitation in 1976 until after the 2001 census so that states’ family planning programs would not affect their political representation in the Lok Sabha. This had led to wide discrepancies in the size of constituencies, with the largest having over three million electors, and the smallest less than 50,000. During the Emergency, through the Forty-second Amendment the government froze the total Parliamentary and Assembly seats in each state till 2001 Census. This was done, mainly, due to wide discrepancies in family planning among the states and giving time to states with higher fertility rates to implement family planning to bring the fertility rates down. The constitution was again amended (84th amendment to Indian Constitution) in 2002 to continue the freeze on the total number of seats in each state till 2026.

On March 22, the Joint Action Committee (JAC) of Chief Ministers of Southern states on delimitation urged the Union Government to extend the freeze on the number and state-wise distribution of Lok Sabha seats for another 25 years beyond 2026 and engage with all stakeholders before carrying out the exercise.

As the South Indian states, particularly Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka, have successfully implemented population control measures over the past decades, this has resulted in lower fertility rates compared to some northern states. This disparity in population growth rates could lead to a reduction in the number of Lok Sabha seats allocated to southern states, while northern states with higher populations might gain seats. Projections suggest that Uttar Pradesh could see its Lok Sabha seats increase from 80 to 143, while Bihar’s tally might nearly double from 40 to 79. On the other hand, Tamil Nadu’s seats might remain at 39 or less, and Kerala in fact might even lose two seats. Reacting to this possible disparity between Southern and Northern states, the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin described the proposed delimitation exercise as “a sword hanging over the head of South India.”

It is feared that the potential increase in seats for northern states could shift the balance of power in the Lok Sabha, giving them greater influence over national policies. Southern states argue that delimitation based solely on population undermines the principles of cooperative federalism. They contend that factors like economic contribution, tax revenue, and development indicators should also be considered in determining representation.

Population Control Programme

India has been using sterilization as a method of population control since 1951. According to the United Nations, India alone was responsible for 37 per cent of the world’s female sterilization in 2011. Among all the Asian and Sub-Saharan African countries, India’s family planning program received the biggest chunk of international aid. The World Bank gave the Indian government a loan of USD 66 million between 1972 and 1980 for sterilization. In fact, Indira Gandhi was pressed by Western democracies to implement a crash sterilization program to control India’s population. The Western countries’ lobby backed the sterilization program after the Emergency was imposed in 1975, even when her own advisers were unwilling to support it. Reports suggest that in order to limit its population growth rate, the international push was so extreme that in 1965, President Lyndon B Johnson of the USA refused to provide food aid to India—at the time threatened by famine—until it agreed to incentivize sterilization.

It appears that the drastic population control programs India initiated since 1975 were linked to the National Security Study Memorandum 200: Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for US Security and Overseas Interests (NSSM200), also known as the “Kissinger Report”. It was a national security directive completed on December 10, 1974 by the United States National Security Council under the direction of Henry Kissinger following initial orders from President of the United States Richard Nixon. NSSM200 was adopted as official United States policy by President Gerald Ford on November 26, 1975. The policy gave “paramount importance” to population growth planning measures and the promotion of contraception among 13 populous countries to stem rapid over population growth. India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Turkey, Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil were projected to create 47 per cent of all world population growth.

In summary, the NSSM200 provided four main observations: (i) Population growth of LDCs if it outpaces economic development would likely create suffering and political instability that might be inimical to US interests. (ii)The United States relied on many of these countries for many natural resources. (iii) High birth rates might result in growth in younger individuals who would oppose established governments if economic conditions did not support livelihoods. (iv) American foreign businesses investments would become vulnerable to interference by foreign governments struggling to provide basic humanitarian support for rapidly growing populations. It recommended that US leadership “influence national leaders” and pursue “world-wide support for population-related efforts through increased emphasis on mass media and other population education and motivation programs by the UN, and USAID.”

During the 1975 Emergency - when civil liberties were suspended – the Indian government began a “gruesome campaign” to sterilise poor men. There were reports of police cordoning off villages and virtually dragging the men to surgery. An astonishing 6.2 million Indian men were sterilised in just a year, which was “15 times the number of people sterilised by the Nazis”, according to journalist Mara Hvistendahl. Two thousand men died from botched operations and more than 700 deaths took place due to failed surgeries between 2009 and 2012. It is alleged that “India has a dark history of state-sponsored population control, often with eugenic aims—targeting the poor and underprivileged. In 2013-14 India carried out nearly 4 million sterilisations, mostly on women, reports BBC.

It appears that the sterilisation program has not been implemented effectively across India. A government memo dated February 11, 2020 on this issue is a case in point. In 2020, journalists and civil society called for attention and action against the National Health Mission’s February 11 order that “warned Madhya Pradesh health care workers of dire consequences as only 4 per cent of the sterilization target had been achieved in the current financial year”. It was reported that although Madhya Pradesh’s male sterilization target was 60,000, only 2,514 men had been sterilized in the entire state at that point.

Long- Pending National Census

Census 2021 has now been postponed more than once. Initially, it was because of the pandemic, but at least three countries that also saw severe COVID outbreaks - the UK, China, and the US - have since completed their census exercises. From the first synchronous census in 1881, the decadal census exercise has never been delayed or postponed.

Census is crucial for budget allocations, delimitation of constituencies, reservation of Scheduled Caste, Scheduled Tribe and Women seats in the parliament and administrative planning. The 106th Constitutional Amendment, passed in 2023, mandates that one-third of the total seats in the Lok Sabha, state legislatures, and the National Capital Territory be reserved for women.

In addition to these, the Census is also very important as most of the opposition parties have demanded to undertake a detailed Socio Economic Caste Survey along with the population census. The recent Telangana socio-economic and caste survey has revealed crucial insights about caste structures among Indian Muslims. While the total Other Backward Classes (OBC) population in Telangana stands at 56.33 per cent, Muslim OBCs constitute 10.08 per cent. This data reinforces the fact that caste is not exclusive to Hinduism – it is an Indian social structure that persists across all religions.

Another important issue has to be resolved before the Census procedure begins. So far, the Adivasis have been clubbed under the ‘others’ column in the census. While the format devised by the Registrar General of India (RGI) for Census 2021 has dropped ‘the others’ column, the tribals this time around will either have to skip the religious identity column or identify themselves as belonging to one of the six specified religions – Hindu, Muslim, Christian, Buddhist, Jain and Sikh. The Adivasis want the Union Home Ministry to ensure an opportunity for them to identify the religion they practise or the faith they strictly adhere to and thus, give them a distinct religious-cultural identity. The tribal organisations want a distinct religious or cultural identity which they are convinced will be a reality if a religious code is included in the Census format by the RGI. This would mean a total of eight specified religions against seven, including the ‘others’ column in the format for the previous Census.

Unfortunately, the Narendra Modi government has been dragging its feet. The decadal census is unlikely to be carried out in 2025 as well as a meagre Rs 574.80 crore was allocated for the exercise in the Budget presented on February 1, 2025. Compared to this, the Union Cabinet on December 24, 2019 approved the proposal for conducting a Census of India 2021 at a cost of Rs 8,754.23 crore and updating the National Population Register (NPR) at Rs 3,941.35 crore. Over 10 crore Indians are being denied benefits under the National Food Security Act, 2013 or the PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana because still the 2011 Census enumeration is being used. It was only through a caste count that full and meaningful social, economic, and political justice can be ensured in education and employment.

Observations

India’s five southern states’ share in gross domestic product now accounts for 30.8 per cent in 2023-24, compared to 31.7 per cent for northern states. But due to aggressive implementation of population control programs, the southern states which had a 24 per cent share in population during the 1971 census, based on which delimitation was conducted, which likely shrunk to 19.7 per cent in 2023. The contribution of cheap labour, supplied by the populous Northern states is no less important than the other factors of production of the former.

Delimitation doesn’t exist in isolation. It should be viewed in the context of increasing divergence amongst India’s States, particularly southern India and central and northern India. One can’t sit in Delhi and come up with the same policy for Kerala and Madhya Pradesh, say, in terms of health, because Kerala has an IMR (infant mortality rate) of 5, and Madhya Pradesh has an IMR of somewhere around 46, says Nilakantan RS, author of the bestselling book South vs North: India’s Great Divide. As a way out to this problem, he suggests extreme decentralisation -altering the structure of governance in the country, so that the States get more powers to develop their own constituencies.

It cannot be denied that the factors that led to the rise of the Southern states are historical as well as political and should not be attributed to the political actors of the last half-century alone. The root of the North South divide may be found in the difference of culture between the native Dravidian and invading Aryans.

According to D Dey (2019), in India, ‘internal’ colonialism manifested itself in three different forms: (i) Subordination of ethno-racial and non-Hindu religious groups, namely indigenous people {mostly descendants of the Harappa and of the Ancient Ancestral South Indians (AASI), Tibeto-Burman and Austro-Asiatic people, Dalit (untouchables, sweepers, latrine cleaners), and Muslims}, by the descendants of the Ancestral North Indians (ANI) which was created when Indo-Aryan steppe pastoralists mixed with groups of the Indus Valley periphery living in the northern fringe; (ii) Subordination of regions not dominated by the descendants of ANI of the North and West Indian states; (iii) Subordination of rural populations by the urban elites where Anglicized India exploits rural Bharat. The Anglicized urban elites act as ‘clientele classes’ of the colonial state. The South-North divide is a classic example of first two forms of ‘internal colonialism’ and the third form is more blatantly visible within the ANI region – commonly known as the Hindi belt of India.

It appears that during the last few decades the population control programs have been implemented more aggressively in the AASI region of India compared to the ANI region that led to the drastic decline of the population of the Southern Non-Aryan states.

Views expressed are personal