Talking Shop: World Needs a Breather

“Some days I can't stop

thinking about you. On

other days, I wonder why

I am wasting my time.”

— Quoteistan

Recent months have taken a toll on the world and its people, as we have watched the Russia-Ukraine standoff fighting neck-and-neck for eyeballs with the conflagration in the Middle-East. If that weren’t enough to keep us staring at screens of myriad sizes, we have had the US Presidential elections and the aftermath, Justin Trudeau’s remarks on Khalistanis (even former elected Canadian members are cursing him for that) and India’s very own burying of the hatchet with China.

These developments have had a visible impact on international trade and the tactile business of business. Critical shipments and supplies have been rerouted to avoid ‘shipping danger zones’ in and around the Red Sea, stock markets have gone into a tizzy, currencies are slipping into oblivion, while wages and earnings hit unsustainable nadirs. The only way to find succour is to end this confrontation and mental bombardment. And allowing the business of life to resume.

At the heart of the upheaval is the persistent standoff between Israel and Iran, with verbal and ballistic missiles raining down to shatter homes and rend lives and dreams. The result is that the Middle-East’s ecosystem, always fragile and sometimes unstable, finds itself teetering on the brink of absolute breakdown, endangering countless and reshaping global trade dynamics.

The ramifications extend far beyond the war zone, impacting economies, supply chains and stock markets thousands of miles away. As trade routes transform into battlefields, the fallout is being felt worldwide. “Re-routing of shipments is causing delays and shortages everywhere,” says Eliza Harman, economic analyst at the Global Trade Institute. “There’s a cascading impact on production, availability and prices, all ultimately borne by everyday people.”

Trade Routes in Tatters

Historically, certain regions have been integral to trade, connecting continents and serving as conduits for essential goods. However, as the Middle-East and Eastern Europe remain volatile, these routes are compromised, forcing suppliers to seek alternative paths—an expensive and consuming endeavour. The rerouting of goods through safer but longer routes has led to delays and increases in costs. Goods that used to arrive in days now take weeks, if they arrive at all.

Everything from groceries to medical supplies is in short supply. When available, prices are sky-high. A report from the International Logistics Council highlights the struggles: “The loss of vital trade routes is driving up the costs of shipping by up to 30 per cent, which impacts the price of goods in markets relying on imports. Commodities are harder to access for millions.”

Global stock markets aren’t far behind. Always sensitive to geopolitical hiccups, markets have plunged as investors grapple with the economic uncertainties arising out of the conflict. Fears of supply chain disruptions, oil price hikes and inflation have spooked everyone. The S&P 500 and other indices have seen sharp declines, with analysts uncertain about the prospects for recovery. “The markets reflect human psychology as much as they do economic gauges,” says renowned researcher Samuel Levine. “With no clear end to the conflict in sight, we’re seeing a fear-driven sell-off. Investors are pulling out because they don’t see a stable environment in the near future.”

For individuals, the freefall translates into lost savings, retirement funds and deepening anxieties. “I saved for my son’s college fund,” says Sandra Lee, a middle-class investor in New York. “Watching my investments lose value overnight… it breaks my heart. I’m afraid I’ll never get back what I’ve lost.”

Everyday Life in Limbo

For those in conflict zones, the impacts are immediate and devastating. In Israel and Iran, civilians bear the brunt of the violence, enduring trauma and displacement as their towns and cities are turned into rubble. “It’s a nightmare,” recounts Eitan, a shopkeeper in Tel Aviv who lost his business to a missile attack. “My family and I can’t sleep. I don’t know how to feed my children. What will happen to us?” In Ukraine, towns near the front lines see frequent evacuations, with residents unsure if they’ll ever return to their homes. The Ukrainian economy, once booming with potential, is now struggling under the weight of ongoing conflict, with industries collapsing and unemployment soaring.

Meanwhile, those indirectly affected are dealing with a sharp rise in living costs. Soaring energy prices have sent household bills skyrocketing in Europe, with families forced to cut back to make ends meet. In Asian and African nations that rely on food imports, staples like wheat and corn are becoming more expensive and harder to obtain.

A touching fallout of the conflict is the disruption of medical supply chains. Hospitals across affected regions report shortages of medication and equipment, making it difficult to provide critical care. Aid groups attempting to deliver relief supplies are caught in bureaucratic red tape, dangerous terrains and hostile checkpoints. “I can’t tell you how helpless it feels,” says Dr Mohammad Farouk, who works in a hospital near the Israel-Iran conflict zone. “We have patients who need lifesaving treatment, but supplies are held up, stuck on a truck rerouted to avoid a war zone. We’re doctors, not politicians, but we’re being dragged into the consequences of political games.”

Hope Amid the Havoc

Despite the losses, there are voices espousing negotiation and resolution. Most are calling for peace and restoration, emphasizing that conflict only brings destruction. A joint statement by the UN and WTO said: “The impact of these wars on innocent civilians and the global economy is devastating. Only diplomacy can ensure resumption of trade, stability and the safety of human lives.” Global markets have shown brief signs of recovery whenever there is a hint of ceasefire negotiations, indicating how critical an end to these hostilities is for human and economic welfare. But while the possibility of a truce remains, the reality often overshadows diplomatic efforts.

An unlikely resolution card here is Trump. Yes, Donald Trump. As with Ukraine, Trump has for long promised to bring peace to the Middle East, implying that he would end the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and the Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon (of course, he has never said how). Before the elections and his victory, Trump said if he had been in power (rather than Joe Biden), Hamas wouldn’t have attacked Israel due to his ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran. It is likely that Trump will now attempt to do just that—have the US administration pull out of the Iran nuclear deal and apply greater sanctions.

In his first stint in the White House, Trump enacted pro-Israel policies, naming Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moving the US embassy there from Tel Aviv, a move that energised his Christian evangelical base, a core Republican voter group. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned the compliment, calling Trump the “best friend that Israel has ever had in the White House”. Critics, however, argue that Washington’s abandonment of the Palestinian claim to Jerusalem could backfire.

Need to End Bloodbath

All said and done, the world economy cannot afford prolonged conflict. “At the end of the day, we’re all interconnected,” says Priya Deshmukh, economist with the Asian Development Bank. “The effects of these conflicts don’t stop at borders—they ripple across the globe. If peace doesn’t prevail, we’re looking at long-term recessions and a divide between wealthier nations and those already struggling.”

For countless families, the price of war is all too personal. Behind every economic indicator are people whose lives have been disrupted, who yearn for a return to normalcy. It’s a mother in Ukraine trying to secure food for her children, a shopkeeper in Israel wondering if he’ll ever reopen his doors, or an investor in New York fretting over the future of her child’s education. Ultimately, hope rests on the end of hostilities. Only then can the wounded fabric of global commerce, community and human life begin to heal. Until that day, millions will continue to live in a state of uncertainty, yearning for the business of life to resume amidst the clouds of war.

The writer is a veteran journalist and communications specialist. He can be reached on [email protected]. Views expressed are personal