Talking Shop: I told you so

The numbers are doing all the talking, and they are rather grim and depressing, on many of the fronts that now impact and determine our life (or should I call it existence?). At the time of writing this column, many states in the country are reporting all-time-high new Coronavirus infections, with positivity rates scaling the 30-per cent mark – that means one in every three people being tested has contracted COVID-19. And take into account the fact that a majority of the newly-infected are asymptomatic, only the Almighty knows what the actual numbers truly are.

On the economic front, the country is still withering and that jackass called inflation continues to run away unfettered, scaling unthinkable milestones. Resultantly, anything and everything now costs the roof and more. This is a dangerous paradox, for this price-rise comes at a time when unemployment rates are at historical highs, with those still fortunate to hold a regular job seeing a dramatic reduction or stagnation in monthly take-home salaries. Deposits in Savings Bank accounts have fallen to a new nadir, as per a recent report of The Reserve Bank of India.

And there's more, much more, that much of which mars our individual and national prospects, and we shall talk about some of these through the rest of this column.

PS: I am writing this column at bullet speed as my laptop suddenly turned fidgety this morning. I opened the back-up PC and some keys refused to work. I decided to go out and buy an external keyboard, but it dawned on me that the weekend curfew has begun. So I have sought help from Amazon, hoping that the external keyboard arrives soon and shores me up if this laptop fails again.

Normalcy unhindered

Amid all the tumult and uncertainty, the one thing moving ahead nonchalantly is assembly elections in five states, with the most interesting tussle expected in Uttar Pradesh. And despite the Election Commission's ban on physical rallies till January 22, all political parties have been thumbing their nose and displaying a dramatic penchant for assembling rambling crowds, even as they continue to call them 'virtual rallies'. What's missing at these rallies is even the most basic common sense and the instinct of self-preservation – no one is wearing masks or maintaining COVID protocols, not those on the dais and certainly not those at the listening end. It is scary enough to watch these congregations on the telly, and one can only admire the guts and chutzpah being displayed by the attendees.

In our hill stations in this first month of January, things are chilly and white as record snowfall is being witnessed in the higher Himalayas. Hotels are full and the roads are jammed as India's bravehearts and their dames party the days and evenings away, again (you guessed it) without any safety precautions. Things are so distressed that the authorities have been piling up record collections in fines for the flouting of norms, but the imbroglio continues. Add to this the fact that half of those falling prey to new COVID-19 infections in the hills are tourists, and I can only scratch my head in wonderment. What is it that goads and catalyzes this level of a wanton and shameless celebration of life in times of such distress and crises?

Things are pretty similar on our cities' streets too. Forget the night and weekend curfews, the days are agog with teeming crowds and no safety precautions.

Missing data points

In such dire times, what is needed are bold policy decisions and incisive action by the authorities, but there we have another cause for discombobulating and flagellating our very innards. We are repeatedly informed that required data points are missing, throwing the monkey wrench in any plans to take much-needed and intended action. What all is missing, you ask? Well, for starters, how can the authorities take requisite steps to create employment when they have no reliable data on unemployment figures, we are told? This is despite the fact that the Center for Monitoring the Indian Economy has been shouting itself hoarse for a year now, citing alarming numbers of educated Indians without jobs. In fact, a little bird tells me that when the authorities disregarded CMIE's joblessness data a year back, this Government agency quietly leaked the same to the media.

Okay then, let's make a beginning by compensating the farmers who lost their lives through their year-plus agitation on the Capital's borders. Nope, it cannot be done, we are informed, for there is no data on how many died. Did anyone die, we are asked? At least let's compensate the families of doctors and healthcare workers who died in the Second Wave last year; nope, again the numbers are not available. A bit later, we are reluctantly told that around 200 of these warriors perished saving us. Incidentally, the Indian Medical Association has balked at this number, insisting that over 700 died in the line of duty.

What about taking care of migrant families who lost their loved ones who trekked back to their homes and villages after the first lockdown in March-end of 2020? Again, nada. There is no data available here either. Okay again, how about those that died from the lack of oxygen through the Second Wave in 2021? What oxygen-related deaths, we are asked? There were no such deaths.

What we do have is data on how much Indian Railways lost because of the farmers' agitation – Rs 36.87 crore. As for lost toll collections on North India's highways due to the same protests, NHAI was down by Rs 2,731.32 crore. It is admirable that these highly accurate figures are readily available and bandied out. Farmers, shame on you.

All-round morass

Amid all this, a very concerned RBI is expected to announce in its forthcoming February policy that easy liquidity cannot be taken for granted; rates would have to be pushed up at some point to save the day. Manufacturing outputs slithered again in November, with the Index for Industrial Production slipping from 4 per cent in October to 1.4 per cent in one month, clearly underlining the fact that our growth prospects are suspect. Consumer Price Index inflation is up at 5.6 per cent for December, from 4.9 per cent in November and 4.5 per cent in October. So, growth is lacking sustainability and if Omicron spreads to villages after peaking in cities, things will only take a southward plunge.

The forthcoming Budget announcements will also play a critical role in determining which way the Indian economy and the Corporate sector move, given the critical need for a stimulus on many vital fronts. Indications are already there that banks will not be provided any buffer for shoring up their burgeoning Non-Performing Assets, left on their own to weather out any future storms.

India will also need to take a hint from some European nations which announced last week that they are cutting back on COVID safety protocols and vaccinations, asking people to treat COVID-19 variants like the common flu and learn to live with this phenomenon. It is a new and macabre way of life indeed that we are headed for. On a primal level, it is going to be each man for himself. In the larger scheme of things, especially for a country like India, institutional and Governmental intervention will be needed to ride out the remainder of this multi-faceted storm. Else, as a nation, we shall slither some more – we have already lost a lot, let us wake up at least now and not lose the complete plot.

The writer is a communications specialist and clinical analyst. Views expressed are personal. [email protected]