Talking Shop: Heads on a Swivel

“The suspicious mind believes

more than it ever doubts. It

believes in a formidable and

utterly ineradicable evil that

lurks inside every person.”

― Eric Hoffer

The world is a gym. Sinews and muscles in all parts of the body are being stretched and flexed, preparing the world’s best for the worst. Reconstruct the Anglais above by Eric Hoffer and it will eventually sink in that this is what he portends. It is a wake-up call that we are all on the mat, in the idiomatic way or in its colourful sibling found on any gym floor. On the mat, you can do only one thing – look left, look right, look ahead, look behind. Reset. Then resume the four-look vigil all over again. In an unpredictable, unsafe world, that’s the only way to survive.

If you hate literary parallels and want me to get to the bloody point, here you are. The Russia-Ukraine faceoff is at bay for a bit, as is the Hamas-Israel squabble. The world is letting out a collective sigh, worried as everyone (and their uncle and aunt) waits for retaliatory US trade tariffs to kick in on April 2. What you are enjoying today is a temporary blip. It is the eye of the storm.

Danger lurks everywhere and can pounce at any time. Heads are on a swivel – scouting for the lethal economic torpedo that can instantly turn calm waters into a thrashing mess. World leaders and their nations cannot follow the Pigeon Approach or find refuge in the Ostrich Syndrome anymore. Keeping the eyes shut will not thwart the menace or make the jeopardy go away magically. Heads seemingly buried in the sand will not help the rest of the body blend in with the terrain, or permit one to use the beak to rotate the remaining nest-eggs.

Time for the Cat Vigil

The only way to survive in today’s tremulous world is to be a slinky feline and follow the Cat Vigil. In this new-world economic yoga pose, you need to keep one eye fluttering and demi-open even while snoozing, so that you can spring up and bolt when thunder strikes. And strike that thunder will. The way the world is, we have to unashamedly admit this reality. Therefore, to survive, Cat Vigil wins. Who knows; if you are (p)lucky, you may even still have the nuts to live with and fight another day.

As I began typing this column, I decided I to write in a manner that I warn without causing worry and lay out the inevitable without raising alarm. But Cat Vigil wouldn’t let me. It forced me to call an apple an apple and an idiot an idiot. There is no point in beating about the bush, it said. I agreed. Anyway, it isn’t as if only I can see what’s coming. Hell, Delhi’s Raisina Hill is resonating with this same scary movie and sore Cat Vigil necks. At least the accompanying alarm and worry and sighs are inaudible…

Let’s face the truth. Since January 20, 2025, the world has changed.

The change began to cement itself in July last year when US Presidential hopeful Donald J Trump began warned all US trade partners that if he was voted to power, he would clamp down on “unequal and lopsided tariffs”. Addressing teeming and cheering gatherings across a ready-for-change America, Donald Trump vowed to impose stringent reciprocal tariffs on those trade partners that continued to take “undue advantage of US’ largesse and decades-old magnanimity”.

Press Fast Forward

Fast forward to today. Trump won the polls and is now US President. The world has changed. In his inauguration at the Capitol, Trump thundered and boomed out plans to unleash a tariff offensive that would ‘Make America Great Again’. The swarm of Republicans present stood up to celebrate him, reminding movie-buffs like me of how Keanu Reeves was near-venerated when his motley crew in The Matrix decided that “He is the One”.

Trump’s plum chosen team has eaten up their leader’s ‘retaliatory tariff’ vocal crumbs, some resorting to instant replays while others have chosen to be delayed echoes. To name one, we have US Trade Representative Katherine Tai. Just hours after assuming office, Tai promised to give a wigging to those who were “plundering America’s munificence”, castigating them for their trade and business avarice.

Such warnings and tariffs already in play after January 20 have evoked a mixed reaction. A few citadels of resistance have been flattened, while some time-tested marriages have imploded, such as that with Canada, Mexico and the European Union. In the ensuing economic stalemate, countries like South Korea, Thailand and India have been forced to walk a careful middle path.

Beyond the immediate pain, there is a greater worry; there is no visible expiry date on the trade and tariff reversals the globe is being subjected to. That is a cause for concern amongst large companies and organizations, especially those dealing with the US and engaged in industries such as automobiles, technology, healthcare and power. Companies and nations have gone into a huddle, negotiating with one another, and with a US that is doggedly adamant on its ‘equal tariffs’ thunder and lightning.

India Is Calibrated Too

India is being careful too, forced to take calibrated economic steps. There is little option – the stakes are sky-high. The US is insisting on a bilateral trade agreement, with revenue implications close to US $500 billion (Rs 43,50,000 crore) by 2030. Trump’s team, headed by Assistant US Trade Representative Brendan Lynch, has already arrived in India and is working out the parameters of this agreement, making it clear that “some vetted tax heads would need to be revisited and requests acceded to”. This is an unwritten diktat, yet a cast-in-stone pre-condition to continued diplomatic amity.

Even a cursory look at the sectoral break-up of bilateral trade reveals the cause for concern. If the US imposes country-level tariffs, most nations would suffer. That includes India, which would face additional taxes of 4.9 per cent, compared to 2.8 per cent now. India’s farm exports would be the worst hit. Shrimp, dairy and processed foods exports would face additional tariffs of up to 38 per cent.

An analysis by Global Trade Research Initiative also reveals that Indian pharmaceutical exports would face an extra 10.9 per cent in duties, while diamonds and jewellery would have to pay 13.3 per cent more and electronics an additional 7.2 per cent. Only petroleum, minerals and garments would remain unaffected due to existing tariffs.

The US is the biggest market for Indian goods and services, says the US Trade Representative’s office. India’s trade surplus with the US was US $45.7 (Rs 3,97,590 crore) billion in 2024, 5.4 per cent more than in the previous year. Trade between the two countries was $129.2 billion (Rs 11,24,040 crore) in 2024, with India’s exports at $87.4 billion (Rs 7,60,380 crore), up 4.5 per cent, while imports were $41.8 billion (Rs 3,63,660 crore), up 3.4 per cent.

Soliloquy: Bravado and ego can take a walk, because Cat Vigil wins this battle of business sensibility. India has too much at stake and can’t afford to lose. There are many industries, many companies and their investments, too many people and their livelihoods, and too many hopes and dreams attached here. India needs to walk the very thin line that divides brashness and meekness. Diplomacy and hard-nosed business have to become best friends. We need to keep reminding the world that we have an army of 142 crore Indians. India is the world’s biggest market for products and services of all kinds. Now, if only the average Indian had more disposable money…

The writer is a veteran journalist and communications specialist. He can be reached on [email protected]. Views expressed are personal