Reification of ambitions?

At the CoP26, the Indian Prime Minister declared a five-fold strategy — termed as the panchamrita — to tackle climate change. These five points include:

• India will get its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 gigawatts (GW) by 2030

• India will meet 50 per cent of its energy requirements from renewable energy sources by 2030

• India will reduce the total projected carbon emissions by one billion tonnes from now onwards till 2030

• By 2030, India will reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by less than 45 per cent

• So, by the year 2070, India will achieve the target of net-zero

India's climate change targets are laudable and put the ball firmly in the court of the already rich world to now show that they mean business. India has not been a historical contributor to the greenhouse gas emissions — from 1870 to 2019, its emissions have added up to a miniscule four per cent of the global total.

It is lambasted as the world's third highest polluter in 2019, but its scale of emissions (2.88 CO2 gigatonnes) as compared to the highest polluter (China at 10.6 Gt) and second highest (United States at 5 Gt), are not comparable, not by a stretch. And, we have a huge need to grow our economy and meet the energy needs of millions of our people.

Let me decode India's ambitious targets:

500 GW of non-fossil fuel energy capacity by 2030

According to Central Electricity Authority's projection for India's energy mix for 2030, the country's installed capacity of non-fossil energy for electricity generation in 2019 was 134 GW and by 2030 it will be 522 GW.

In 2019, India was meeting 9.2 per cent of its electricity generation from renewables. By 2021, with an increase in renewable energy capacity to 102 GW, the generation has increased to roughly 12 per cent and so, it means that we need to increase this to meet the 50 per cent electricity generation target by 2030.

India's power requirement in 2030 is projected to be 2,518 BU and if we target to meet 50 per cent of our requirements from renewables, then the installed capacity will have to increase from the planned 450 GW to 700 GW.

If we consider hydroelectricity as part of renewables — as it is considered globally — then we will need to increase new renewable capacity to 630 GW. This is definitely achievable.

India's target and energy plan for 2030 also implies that India will restrict its coal-based energy.

India will reduce projected carbon emissions by 1 billion tonnes by 2030

India's current CO2 emissions are 2.88 Gt. According to the Centre for Science and Environment's projections, India's generation in a business-as-usual scenario will be 4.48 Gt in 2030.

According to the target, India will cut its carbon emission by one billion tonnes and therefore, our emissions in 2030 will be 3.48 Gt.

This means that India has set an ambitious goal to cut its emissions by 22 per cent.

In terms of per capita: India would be 2.98 tonnes of CO2 per capita and as per this target it will be 2.31 tonnes per capita. If you compare this to the world, the US will be 9.42 tonnes in 2030, EU 4.12 in 2030, UK, the CoP26 host, 2.7 in 2030 and China will be 8.88 CO2 tonnes per capita.

According to the IPCC, global CO2 emissions must be 18.22 Gt in 2030 for the world to stay below 1.5 degrees Celsius. It would mean that the entire world has to be 2.14 tonnes per capita of CO2 in 2030.

India is reaching this goal without adding to the cumulative emissions in the atmosphere.

In terms of the carbon budget: With the new Nationally Determined Contribution announcement, India will occupy: Nine per cent of the remaining IPCC 400 Gt carbon budget for 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2030; 8.4 per cent of world emissions in this decade; and 4.2 per cent of world emissions between 1870-2030.

Carbon intensity reduction by 45 per cent

Carbon intensity measures the emissions of CO2 of different sectors of the economy and demands that these are reduced as the economy grows. According to CSE's observation, India has achieved 25 per cent of emission intensity reduction of GDP between 2005-2016, and is on the path to achieve more than 40 per cent by 2030.

But this means that India will have to take up enhanced measures to reduce emissions from the energy-intensive industrial sectors.

It would also require India to reinvent its mobility systems so that we can move people, not vehicles — augment public transport in our cities and improve thermal efficiency of our housing.

Net Zero by 2070

According to the IPCC, global emissions must halve by 2030 and reach net-zero by 2050. Given the enormous inequity in emissions in the world, the OECD countries must then reach net-zero by 2030, China by 2040 and India and the rest of the world by 2050.

However, the targets for net-zero are both inequitable and unambitious. According to this, OECD countries have declared a net-zero target for 2050 and China for 2060.

Therefore, India's net-zero target of 2070 is an extension of this and cannot be argued against. However, this combined net-zero goal will not keep the world below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The future

The big issue that must concern us as we move ahead will be to ensure that growth is equitable and that the poor in the country are not denied their right to development in this new energy future.

The per capita emissions of India remain low, because we a have massive number of people who still need energy for their development. Now, in the future, as we have set ourselves the goal to grow without pollution, we must work on increasing clean, but affordable, energy for the poor.

The natural debt of the already industrialised world and China now needs to be paid for. PM is correct in saying that this requires a massive transfer of funds. It is ironic that climate change funding remains non-transparent and without verification.

The writer is the Director-General of CSE and editor of DownToEarth. Views expressed are personal