Opting ‘green’ over greed

Adrian Bilal, an economist at Harvard University in the US, and Diego R Canzinga, an economist at Northwestern University, recently announced the implications of their study, saying that if global temperatures rise by 1 per cent, global gross domestic product (GDP) could experience a loss of up to 12 per cent. Additionally, there could be a negative impact of 31 per cent on long-term welfare schemes, potentially increasing to 52 per cent by 2100 if the situation does not improve. Both economists believe that if the global temperature increases by 1 degree Celsius from the current level, there could be a 12 per cent decline in economic output, which cannot be compensated for even in 10 years. They also believe that if global temperatures had not increased, per capita production could have been 37 per cent higher.

There is life on Earth due to the presence of a certain temperature in the atmosphere, but today, due to industries, deforestation, and various appliances like refrigerators and cold temperature controllers, gases like carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons are emitted. These emissions are thickening the layer of greenhouse gases, causing them to absorb more energy from the Sun and transmit it to the Earth, leading to an increase in Earth's temperature and making human life more difficult.

The main source of carbon dioxide is fuel or coal, while agriculture emits methane and nitrous oxide gases. The primary source of chlorofluorocarbons are refrigerators and cooling equipment. These devices cause the most harm to the environment. Due to indiscriminate deforestation, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing because trees and plants absorb it. Carbon dioxide levels have increased by more than 30 per cent since the Industrial Revolution in 1750, while methane levels have increased by 140 per cent. The situation is so serious that the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has reached the highest level in eight million years.

The upsurge in atmospheric temperature is called global warming. Earth's average temperature has increased by 0.8 degrees Celsius over the past 100 years, of which 0.6 degrees Celsius has occurred in the past three decades. Over the past few decades, sea levels have risen by 3 millimetres every year because glaciers are melting at a rate of 4 per cent annually. According to an estimate, Earth's temperature will increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century compared to 1850.

The Father of the Nation, Mahatma Gandhi, once said, “Nature can satisfy our needs for centuries, but not our greed.” At present, the average temperature of the Earth is about 15 degrees Celsius, but due to our greed, it is continuously increasing, causing the ecosystem of the weather to deteriorate. We are exploiting natural resources indiscriminately. Forests have become concrete jungles. We have polluted rivers, ponds, lakes, and canals. We have made even the air poisonous. Consequently, it sometimes rains during the summer season and gets extremely hot during the winter season. Even in the mountains, the temperature is exceeding 40 degrees Celsius.

Seventy-point-eight per cent of the Earth is ocean, and the land is on average 20 centimetres above the ocean. The warming of the atmosphere leads to the expansion of the oceans, and the melting of icebergs leads to an increase in ocean water. According to the Paris Agreement on climate change, Earth's temperature has to be kept below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Even if this agreement is followed in letter and spirit, the sea level will rise by 50 centimetres by the year 2100, causing huge losses to both life and property. This would result in a loss of 1.8 per cent of the world's total gross domestic product (GDP) every year. At present, 7.5 billion people live at an average height of only 1.5 meters above sea level. By the year 2050, 1.4 billion people will be at risk of being submerged. Many cities around the world, like those in Austria, Kiribati, and many coastal areas of India and China, could be affected.

Due to the surge in atmospheric temperature, there will be an increase in natural disasters like water shortages, reduction in food production, droughts, floods, and storms in the coming days, making survival difficult for humans and other animals. Many plants may also cease to exist. According to an estimate, a 1-degree Celsius increase in temperature could reduce the economic growth rate by 0.9 per cent every year. The most negative impact of temperature rise will be on low- and middle-income economies.

Depending on the economic and development situation, various countries may have to spend between 5 and 20 per cent of GDP to prevent or mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. According to a World Bank report, climate change could push 45 million Indians below the poverty line and massively increase income inequality in India. Due to the increase in ocean temperature, coral reefs will gradually get destroyed, which may cause a loss of 375 billion dollars every year.

We know the cure for this problem. All one needs to do is start taking corrective measures. The amount of carbon dioxide can be reduced by promoting renewable energy and planting trees. By increasing the use of non-motorised vehicles like bicycles and rickshaws instead of petrol and diesel-driven vehicles, emissions of gases that harm the environment can be prevented. Long-distance journeys can be completed using e-vehicles. Maximum use of bicycles and rickshaws is also possible in our country. Analysis by the Energy and Resources Research Institute, Delhi, shows that 60 per cent of journey lengths in Indian cities are less than 5 km, and 80 per cent are less than 10 km. If the average distance of 5 km is covered by bicycle and 50 per cent of the average distance of 10 km is covered by bicycle, then the environment will benefit, and billions of rupees will be saved.

It is not too late. If we try, emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons can be controlled, but for this, we will have to give up our greed and selfishness. If we maintain a balance between development and nature, the current pace of climate change will reduce.

Views expressed are personal