Navigating the tempest

Change is inevitable; everything is in a state of flux where change is the only constant. Nothing can reflect the phrase more accurately than the current scenario in Bangladesh. The pressing concern is: what is the future of Bangladesh amid the downfall of Sheikh Hasina's government?

Furthermore, where does its neighbouring country, India, stand with its approach regarding the new regime of Dhaka? What are the probabilities of changing the relationship between India and Bangladesh? Would India decide to limit its diplomatic ties with Bangladesh? And what about the baggage of the history of the 1971 war?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has maintained a correct approach to the evolving situation in Bangladesh to date. The Chief Adviser of the interim government of Bangladesh, Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus, has expressed his willingness to maintain diplomatic ties with India, stating that he was never against India. Prime Minister Modi welcomed the proposition of maintaining ties with Bangladesh with open arms.

1971 was the year of the liberation of Bangladesh, with new geopolitical positions under the leadership of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, father of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. At that moment, the battle between East and West Pakistan followed the birth of a new nation. East Pakistan gained its identity as Bangladesh through the Bengali Language Movement against Urdu nationalism. Currently, Yunus is the leading figure among the state-supporting bodies, with BNP on one side and Jamaat on the other. Apart from the political background of Jamaat, it has some deep-rooted associations with terrorist organisations such as ISI and the Taliban. The former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, always tried to support India with several military facilities.

Moreover, she was on the ground against global terrorism by guiding the deportation of militants to India. But after the dethroning of Sheikh Hasina, the Islamic fundamentalist force, Jamaat, has become the ruling regime of Bangladesh. Immediately, anxiety brews all over the nation, wondering about the next move of Jamaat and BNP towards India. Many Hindu temples, like ISKCON in Bangladesh, have been destroyed while making life-taking attacks on Hindu minorities.

The first reaction of the son of former PM Sheikh Hasina was, 'Pakistan has come back'. So shall we call it a triumph of fundamentalist militancy?

Perception and reality in diplomacy don't always go hand in hand. Both nations are diplomatically dependent on each other. Negligence towards Indo-Bangladesh diplomatic ties could lead Bangladesh to pay a heavy price. Despite China being quite a good catch as an economic supporter, we cannot overlook the financial pressure Sri Lanka is going through after taking loans from China.

On Independence Day, the Indian PM mentioned that 140 crore Indians are concerned over the safety of Hindus and minorities in the neighbouring countries. Moreover, he assured me that the Indo-Bangladesh relationship is significant to him, and that he wants to strengthen the ties.

India's support for a democratic, peaceful, stable, and progressive Bangladesh underlines the importance of providing safety to Hindus and other minority communities during the violence in the country. PM Modi added a post on X about receiving a telephone call from Muhammad Yunus, exchanging views regarding the prevailing situation in Bangladesh. He also reiterated the assurance of protection for different minority communities. The Ministry of External Affairs commented that the "two leaders also discussed ways to take the bilateral ties forward in line with the respective national priorities.". Yunus reached out to the Hindus in Bangladesh besides visiting the Dhakeshwari Temple in Dhaka. He proclaimed to give appropriate punishment to the assaulters who were behind the attacks on minority members.

At the same time, PM Modi mentioned in his Independence Day speech that India is committed to peace and will always be a well-wisher of Bangladesh on its journey to becoming a developed nation. He said, "As a neighbouring country, I can understand what Bangladesh is currently going through and hope to see the situation under regulation very soon."

New Delhi was also concerned about bilateral relations after Sheikh Hasina took shelter in India. The student movement demanding reform of the quota system was one of the initiatives of the BNP and Jamaat, both known for their anti-Indian stance. An anti-Indian campaign was organised, targeting Sheikh Hasina. Bangabandhu Mujibur Rahman was also on their list of targets. He was martyred on August 15, 1975, a day widely celebrated as Martyr Day in Bangladesh. This year was an exception, as the government decided not to perform any rituals to pay condolences to Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and it will no longer be a holiday. This whole scenario was difficult for India to digest.

But considering the increase of Chinese influence throughout East Asia, it is a bit of a task for India to maintain its bilateral ties with Bangladesh at ease. The geostrategic position of Bangladesh doesn't allow India to lose its tie-up with the country. PM Modi proclaimed that improving relations with their neighbouring countries would be India’s top foreign policy strategy. However, due to some unavoidable circumstances, India faced difficulties maintaining a constant, healthy relationship with its neighbours.

Supposedly, the Maldives decided to walk under the umbrella of China by adopting an anti-India approach. In the case of Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan, the diplomatic tensions are at an on-and-off stage. Right now, the delinking of diplomatic relations between Bangladesh and India would be a cherry on top for China, which India wouldn't let happen. Fortunately, after the discussion between Yunas and PM Modi, the path towards healthy relations seems a bit clear.

While talking about the neighbouring countries of India, Afghanistan comes under the spotlight automatically. Despite India’s initial opposition to the Taliban rule, the Taliban government expressed their views regarding not being an anti-Indian government, and now the Taliban Foreign Minister is meeting the Indian Foreign Minister, especially at the SCO meeting regarding several official discussions.

Also, can we forget what happened when Pervez Musharraf had a military coup?

The Nawaz Sharif era was over when Pervez Musharraf claimed the titles of army chief and president. Pervez Musharraf was also equally known for being the architect of the Kargil War. At that time, there was a heated disagreement among the members of the Cabinet about reconsidering the invitation of Pervez Musharraf to the Agra Summit, as he was an integral part of the Kargil War. Despite differences, Atal Bihari Vajpayee invited Pervez Musharraf to the summit after the failure of Lahore bus diplomacy.

Even though Aung San Suu Kyi led a pro-democratic movement in Myanmar, India never failed to maintain its ties with the Junta Military Government.

These historical diplomatic challenges with other neighbouring countries toward India indicate how India has always tried to maintain and nurture its foreign policies and international relations with the entire world. This also acts as a ray of hope that India and Bangladesh, under the regime of Muhammad Yunus, will come up with new strategies to strengthen their diplomatic relations.

Views expressed are personal