Ballot & beyond

I have been on a visit to the USA for over a month, and I have observed that the question being asked all across the country is this: how do things look right now in the US Presidential election race? Analysts here are busy analysing trends and opinion polls. Of course, November 5—the election date—is still far away and a lot could happen in the meantime.

The general election in November will be an indirect election, in which voters will cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these Electoral College members will then elect the president and Vice President.

In this context, recent opinion polls show a close fight between Trump and Harris in key swing states. Significantly, however, a New York Times poll released recently showed that Harris has gained ground in four swing states—Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada.

What are swing states? Most US states are considered strongholds of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, but Swing states, also known as battleground states, are states that could “swing” to either the Democratic or the Republican candidate. Swing states are characterised by having small vote margins that different political parties won in previous elections.

Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Nevada are currently regarded as seven key swing states. Because of their potential to be won by either candidate, political parties often spend a considerable amount of time and campaign resources on winning these states.

Last week, Donald Trump held a rally in the small town of Wilkes Barre in North East Pennsylvania. Kamala Harris campaigned in Pittsburgh in western Pennsylvania, making several stops on a bus tour around the city. The focus on Pennsylvania is because it is one of the key swing states which could be critical in deciding the outcome of the US Presidential election. Pennsylvania has 19 votes in the US Presidential Electoral College, ranking behind California (54), Texas (40), and New York (28). Illinois also has 19 votes.

The most important issues which are figuring prominently in the campaign speeches of Trump and Kamala Harris are inflation, housing crisis and immigration. Surveys rank these as the most important issues. Trump has asserted that prices are very high, cost of living has soared, crime has skyrocketed, and illegal immigrants are pouring into the country. On her part, Harris has promised to “bring down costs and increase economic security for all Americans”.

The US housing crisis is also a critical issue. Buyers are facing much higher mortgage rates. High interest rates leave stagnant markets with lower supply and costlier rents in swing states. A part of the American dream is home ownership, and for many people, the American dream has become difficult to fulfil. For Americans who do not want — or cannot afford — to buy a property, renting remains costly. These are prominent issues which voters are influenced by, and on which Trump and Harris are focussing.

Immigration has also become a key issue. Republicans are also highlighting what they say is a list of failures from the Biden-Harris administration in regard to illegal immigration. The 2024 presidential campaign is also witnessing intense debates over such topics as growing racial and ethnic diversity in the United States, the changing American family, crime and reproductive issues.

Abortion is also an important issue. Harris supports abortion rights and is reportedly making reproductive health care central to her 2024 presidential campaign. She has been called "the Biden administration's voice for reproductive rights" and "the White House's voice of unflinching support for reproductive health rights." Analysts fear that a second Donald Trump presidency would present an existential threat to abortion access nationwide, imperilling the ability of anyone to get an abortion anywhere in the country under any circumstance. However, Trump has said that he wouldn't sign a federal abortion ban should he return to the White House, opting to leave the issue to the states.

Many people in the Indian-American community here, as well as people back home in India, are asking this question: who will be better for India—Trump or Harris? In my view, whoever becomes President will be guided ultimately by US national interests. In this context, the 'Deep State' will play an important role.

The 'Deep State' in the United States is a clandestine network which also includes high-level financial and industrial entities and leaders, including the military–industrial complex. This Deep State currently favours a good relationship with India as it stands to gain a lot from it. Importantly, India ranks as the world's biggest arms importing nation, and the US Deep State wants to increase its share of India's defence imports.

India now buys a whole range of defence weaponry from the United States. This includes C-17 Globemaster III aircraft, AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, MH-60 Romeo helicopters, P8I Poseidon Maritime reconnaissance aircraft, and many more deals are in the works. Bilateral trade has grown tenfold since 2000, to USD 191 billion in 2022.

India’s role in the Quad has brought shared purpose to Washington and New Delhi, both of which harbour concerns about China. Today, US-India cooperation spans defence, global health, sustainable development, climate, and technology, among other things. Neither Trump nor Harris will lose sight of this fact.

The Deep State is not pro-India as such. Rather, it wants to maximise its share in the Indian market, especially in the defence sector. The Deep State of the USA is acutely aware that some of the key neighbours of India are hostile towards it and not friendly at all. If India had friendly neighbours, would it need state-of-art weaponry? The more hostile the geo-political environment, the greater the need for such weaponry.

A hostile government across our eastern border will also definitely complicate our security challenges. If the new Government in Bangladesh is more friendly towards China and Pakistan, it could take steps which affect our security needs unfavourably. Bangladesh’s China-backed naval dock at Cox's Bazaar had already heightened power play in our neighbourhood. However, India had said it wasn’t ‘overly concerned’ by the development, given the strong security and defence ties with Bangladesh, but that could change if under the new regime in Bangladesh, China’s navy is granted access to the new facility to service its warships and submarines.

India has every reason to be concerned, as the base is right on the mouth of Bay of Bengal. China's submarines would be dangerously close to the Indian Navy’s Andaman and Nicobar Command. Given that holding back China is foremost in the list of our defence challenges, and that we need state-of-the-art weaponry for that purpose, India's complicated relationship with Bangladesh may just suit the Deep State of the USA. It's a dirty game, to say the least.

The writer is a retired Indian diplomat and had previously served as Consul General in New York. Views expressed are personal