The subtle art of erasing city's Covid dead
New Delhi: That the Capital is under-reporting the number of people dying from Covid-19 — much like many other states in the country — is no longer a secret. The official death toll displayed by the Delhi government on its daily health bulletin arrives at its numbers after a Deaths Audit Committee's deliberations and this does not even include the people who have been dying outside hospitals and at home gasping for air.
But apart from the dead that Delhi is refusing to count, its official data has so far through the pandemic seemed to add up — except when on April 28 this year the cumulative death toll from the virus was seen to be almost 400 less than what was reported on April 27.
Granular analysis of the daily death figures reported by the Delhi government in the last 10 months has now revealed that authorities here might have figured out a way to shave off Covid deaths from cumulative figures they posted at the end of each month — leading to many of the city's Covid dead disappearing from records over this time period.
According to Millennium Post's analysis of the data from July 1 last year to May 1 this year, every month has seen authorities consistently shave off a small number of deaths while reporting the cumulative figures at the end of the month with some months having as little as nine missing Covid deaths to some others having as many as 90 missing deaths.
This particular pattern of Covid deaths disappearing from official records comes into focus when one starts tallying the number of Covid deaths reported every month in the following manner: For instance, on July 1 last year, the cumulative death toll in the city was 2,803. This rose to 3,963 as on July 31 — meaning a total of 1,160 people had died of Covid-19 that month. Or one would like to think so.
The missing deaths become obvious when the daily death figures for all days in July are added, according to which a total of 1,195 people had died of the virus that month — with 35 of Delhi's Covid dead disappearing.
Similarly, it is observed that in August last year, 26 Covid deaths were missing from the cumulative figures reported by authorities at the end of the month and the number of missing deaths for September was 18.
Incidentally, Delhi's first wave had peaked sometime around June 23 and subsided only by July 31. This was also the time the Centre had stepped in to take control of pandemic response coordination in the Capital.
The second wave of the pandemic had started around August 19 and lasted through September till about October 8 before continuing on to the third wave, which peaked around November 11.
In October, November and December last year too, authorities mysteriously seemed to have erased a certain number of Covid deaths while reporting the total numbers at the end of these months. In October, the total deaths by adding daily death figures came to 1,149 but in the cumulative figures, 40 of these deaths were missing. In November, 51 Covid deaths were missing and in December the number of dead who had disappeared had reached 90.
These months also coincided with many flouting social distancing norms in the city owing to the festive season, which was blamed by many experts at the time for the surge in infections.
In fact, the data set from July 1 last year to May 1 this year shows that authorities might be indulging in manipulating the cumulative death figures in ever so subtle ways resulting in the slow but sure disappearance of scores who have succumbed to the virus. The cumulative death figure as of July 1 last year was 2,803 and as of May 1 this year, a total of 16,559 had reportedly died of the virus — meaning 13,756 people (Difference between the two) had been killed by the virus in these 10 months. But if daily death figures are added independently for the 305 days, it shows 13,788 dying of the disease, 32 of which are unaccounted for in the latest cumulative death toll.
In these 10 months, however, there has been February, when the numbers added up and March which has thrown up a peculiar discrepancy. In February this year, the difference of cumulative figures showed 54 deaths and this tallied with the sum of daily deaths.
Significantly, just days into March, Delhi Health minister Satyendar Jain had declared that Covid was nearing the endemic stage in the city.
But in March, the sum of daily deaths was curiously found to be three less than the cumulative number reported at the end of the month — calling into question the integrity of the Delhi government's reporting of death data.
And even as the Delhi government explained its April 28 error as a "clerical mistake", there is no mathematical explanation for why people who died of Covid in the city kept being dropped off official figures.
