Yield on 10-year US Treasury note jumps over 5%
LONDON: The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note rose above 5.0 per cent on Monday, hitting the July 2007 milestone that it briefly attempted to scale last week, Reuters reported.
The run-up in yields on the 10-year Treasury bond, seen as a safe-haven in times of economic uncertainty and a benchmark for borrowing costs around the world, has been driven by investors pricing in stronger US growth as well as fiscal slippage.
Yields at the long-end rose quickly after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that the US economy’s strength and hot labour market might warrant tighter financial conditions.
The 10-year yield touched 5.004 per cent on Monday, up around 8 basis points (bps) on the day.
It was briefly bid at a 16-year high of 5.001 per cent on Thursday. It has risen 160 basis points since mid-May.
Alongside the Fed’s hawkishness, worries over fiscal matters have caused term premiums on the curve to rise.
Treasury borrowing costs have climbed, and a divided Congress has bickered over next year’s spending bills while using stopgap measures to avert a shutdown of government operations.
In the background, the Fed is reducing its bond holdings.
In the year to September 2023, the US government posted a $1.695 trillion budget deficit, a 23 per cent jump from the prior year and the largest since a COVID-fueled $2.78 trillion gap in 2021.
The deficit comes as President Joe Biden is asking Congress for $100 billion in new foreign aid and security spending, including $60 billion for Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel, along with funding for US border security and the Indo-Pacific region.
“It’s a major milestone, the fact the entire curve is at or above 5 per cent is remarkable,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com. “Debate rages about what this means and what’s driving the dynamic. Of course, it’s some combination of strong growth, high issuance, and quantitative tightening.”
The yield on the two-year US Treasury was last up 4 bps at 5.125 per cent.
The 30 year yield was up 8bps at 5.164.
