Indispensable alignment

In September 2024, work inauguration for the construction of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline on Afghan territory was formally initiated by the leaders from Afghanistan and Turkmenistan. The program has been regarded as a major source of creating job opportunities for the war-battered Afghanistan, reports Xinhua. In addition to the inauguration of the TAPI projects, the authorities also inaugurated the 500-kilovolt power transmission line from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan, along with fibre optic and railways 

It is expected that implementation of TAPI and supplementary projects such as Fibre optic, railway and transmission of electricity from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan, in addition to creating job opportunities for Afghans, will also have millions of US dollars economic benefit for Afghanistan. TAPI links Central Asia to South Asia and benefits more than 2 billion people. This project is vital for a country like Afghanistan where its entire economic infrastructure has been destroyed during three decades of political unrest.

Strategic importance of Afghanistan

Afghanistan’s most strategic advantage is its geographical location between Central Asia and South Asia which makes it an important transit and transport hub. Located at the heat of the ancient Silk Road, Afghanistan is surrounded by six countries. It has borders with Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan in the north, with Iran in the west, Pakistan in the south- east, and China in the remote east. Although the country has no direct land contact with India, the proximity is very close to call both countries neighbours.

Stretching over 900 kilometres, Iran and Afghanistan have historically maintained complex ties. Iran’s geography acts as a bridge between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Since 2005, a Eurasian approach in Iran’s foreign policy priorities enabled them to adopt a Look East doctrine, that paved the way for increased cooperation with China and Russia in the economic, technological, and military fields. Afghanistan—an important eastern neighbour of Iran—is an integral part of the latter’s Look East Policy. Afghanistan fits into the framework of Iran’s larger regional economic interests since the former serves as a market for Iranian goods and a transit route to larger markets in Central and South Asia.

Afghanistan shares a border with China in the Wakhan Corridor, which spans 90 kilometres. The Wakhan Corridor is a narrow strip of land in north-eastern Afghanistan, stretching towards China, and acting as a buffer between Tajikistan and Pakistan. It is reported that the construction of a 50-kilometre stretch of the Silk Road, which extends from Wakhan district to the Chinese border and has a width of 5 meters, is underway.

Decades of war and political instability has resulted in loss of Afghanistan’s strategic opportunity. To understand the present condition of Afghanistan, it is important to know the history of this land which was repeatedly invaded  by foreign conquerors and met with conflicts among internally warring factions.

• Due to its strategic importance this land was conquered by Darius I of Babylonia as early as circa 500 BC, and Alexander the Great of Macedonia in 329 BC, among others. The Indian king Asoka’s (reigned 269-233 BCE) empire covered a large part of the Indian subcontinent, stretching from present-day Afghanistan in the west to present-day Bangladesh in the east, with its capital at Pataliputra. A patron of Buddhism, he is credited with playing an important role in the spread of Buddhism across ancient Asia.
• Mahmud of Ghazni, an 11th century conqueror who created an empire from Iran to India, is considered the greatest of Afghanistan’s conquerors. Genghis Khan took over the territory in the 13th century. By 1870, after the area had been invaded by various Arab conquerors, Islam had taken root.
• During the 19th century, Britain, looking to protect its Indian empire from Russia, attempted to annex Afghanistan, resulting in a series of British-Afghan Wars (1838-42, 1878-80, and 1919-21) After prolonged wars with the British, Afghanistan became an independent nation in 1921.
• The USSR invaded Afghanistan on December 24, 1979. By early 1980, the Mujahadeen rebels had united against Soviet invaders and the USSR-backed Afghan Army. Some 2.8 million Afghans fled from the war to Pakistan, and another 1.5 million fled to Iran. Afghan guerrillas gained control of rural areas, and Soviet troops held urban areas.
• In 1984, Saudi Islamist Osama bin Laden made his first documented trip to Afghanistan to aid anti-Soviet fighters. In September 1988, Osama bin Laden and 15 other Islamists formed the group al-Qaida, or “the base”, to continue their jihad, or holy war, against the Soviets and others who they say oppose their goal of a pure nation governed by Islam. The US, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Soviet Union signed peace accord in Geneva, guaranteeing Afghan independence and the withdrawal of 1,00,000 Soviet troops.
• In 1996, a newly formed Islamic militia, the Taliban, rose to power on promises of peace. Most Afghans, exhausted by years of drought, famine and war, approve of the Taliban for upholding traditional Islamic values.
• Days after the 9/11 attack, US officials said bin Laden, the Saudi exile believed to be hiding in Afghanistan, was the prime suspect in the attack. On October 7, 2001, following unanswered demands that the Taliban turn over bin Laden, US and British forces launched airstrikes against targets in Afghanistan. American warplanes started to bomb Taliban targets and bases reportedly belonging to the al-Qaida network. 
• On December 7, 2001, Taliban fighters abandoned their final stronghold in Kandahar as the militia group’s hold on Afghanistan continued to disintegrate. Two days later, Taliban leaders surrendered the group’s final Afghan territory, the province of Zabul. Amid increased violence, NATO took over security in Kabul in August 2003.
• In February 2019, the US and the Taliban signed agreement on a peace deal that would serve as the preliminary terms for the US’ withdrawal from the country by May 2021.  On July 5, 2021, the US left the Bagram airfield.
• In 2011, the US forces overtook a compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, and killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden on May 2, local time. President Hamid Karzai called for American forces to leave Afghan villages and pull back to their bases after a US soldier killed 16 Afghan civilians inside their homes. In December 2014, NATO officially ended its combat mission in Afghanistan. The US-led NATO troops remained to train and advise Afghan forces.
• August 15, The Afghanistan government collapsed as the Taliban took over Kabul. On August 30, 2021, The US transported a final contingent of troops from Kabul Airport, officially ending America’s longest war.

The Taliban are a predominantly Pashtun, Islamic fundamentalist group that returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021 after waging a 20-year insurgency. Since then, the world has pursued a mix of isolation and selective engagement with the new regime. The Western countries, frustrated especially at the Taliban regime’s restrictions on the rights of girls and women, have enforced a raft of sanctions, asset freezes and banking restrictions. Neighbouring governments, including China, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, as well as Pakistan have engaged with the Interim Taliban Administration (ITA).

Enters China

China views Afghanistan as a crucial link in its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – a global infrastructure development strategy. In 2016, China and Afghanistan agreed on BRI integration. This is a position the Taliban regime has endorsed. China seeks to extend BRI westward through Central Asia, leveraging the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Gwadar Port.

While China hasn’t formally recognised the Taliban government, it has taken significant steps in that direction. They received the Taliban ambassador and allowed them to control Afghanistan’s embassy in Beijing. In September 2023, China’s new ambassador presented credentials to the acting Taliban Prime Minister. On January 30, China’s President Xi Jinping received ambassadorial credentials from the Taliban envoy to Beijing appointed by the interim Taliban administration. According to  a study by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom (2024) China’s engagement with the Taliban has steadily increased, culminating in a complex dance of pragmatism and opportunity following the American withdrawal in 2021. Chinese diplomats visiting Kabul view the American withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover as the beginning of a “new era” of independent development and a transition from “chaos to order.”

In August 2023, Taliban regime’s Deputy Prime Minister Maulawi Abdul Kabir affirmed their support for the BRI and “practical cooperation” with China. Acting Commerce Minister Haji Nooruddin Azizi echoed this sentiment in October 2023, seeking inclusion in BRI and CPEC discussions during the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing. The Afghan Acting Minister of Energy and Water attended “The Third Belt and Road Energy Ministerial Conference” in Qingdao, Shandong Province of China held during 23-24 October. In his speech, the Minister emphasised that through its active role in major regional projects like ‘One Belt, One Road,’ Afghanistan was committed to peace, stability, and economic growth in the region. He  also spoke about investing in Afghanistan’s energy sector and the significance of the Wakhan Corridor.

China already operates the Central Asia-China mega gas line. Talks between Chinese and Turkmen leaders on the possibility of moving Turkmen gas to China via a new pipeline started in 2006. The first line (Line A) of the Central Asia–China Gas Pipeline became operational in 2009, followed by the second line (Line B) in 2010 and the third line (Line C) in 2014. By 2014, the total annual capacity of the three parallel lines of the pipeline, which run from Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to China, reached 55 billion cubic meters of gas. With a total length of 5,511 kilometres for the three main lines, this is not only the longest pipeline network in Central Asia, but also the most expensive Chinese project implemented in the region. In 2018, Reuters reported that China is exploring building a spur from Pakistan’s territory once the multi-country TAPI natural gas pipeline project begins operating.

China is accelerating the building of a long-delayed Central Asian fourth gas pipeline (line D) to source gas from Turkmenistan even as Russia pushes its own new Siberian connection. China may eventually seal both deals to feed its massive long-term gas needs, but is prioritising Turkmenistan, industry officials said, as Beijing has long seen Central Asia as a frontier to expand trade, secure energy and maintain stability in its once-restive western Xinjiang region. Combined, multi-year contracts worth tens of billions of dollars to bring gas via both pipelines would meet 20 per cent of China’s current demand, reports Reuters.

In 2013, China owned 79 per cent of the foreign investment in Afghanistan. Following the Taliban takeover of the country in 2021, Chinese business people rushed to Kabul in search of mining and other business opportunities. The influx of Chinese entrepreneurs to Afghanistan was dubbed the “gold rush” by Al Jazeera. It was reported that despite the ongoing unrest, an economic crisis and United Nations’ concerns over human rights continued, as more Chinese citizens were joining the country’s “gold rush”. once a small minority, Chinese nationals made up Afghanistan’s biggest group of expatriates in November 2022.

In January 2023, the Taliban signed a USD 540 million contract to extract oil from northern Afghanistan’s Amu Darya basin. In April of the same year, the Taliban Ministry of Mines and Petroleum announced that a Chinese company was interested in investing USD 10 billion in Lithium and another rare earth minerals. In November 2022, China officially revived the Pine Nut Air Corridor, resulting in exports of over 1,000 tons to China. Furthermore, in December 2022, China implemented zero tariffs on 98 per cent of Afghan products. It also restarted work on the Aynak Copper Mine in Logar and secured oil and gas extraction contracts in the Amu Darya basin. Recently, China has declared zero tariff on all goods imported from Afghanistan.

The contract for the extraction of the Aynak copper mine, which is Afghanistan’s largest copper mine and the second-largest copper mine in the world, was signed between Afghanistan and a Chinese company in 2008. This Chinese company now has the extraction rights for the Aynak copper mine for 30 years. In April this year, Zhao Xing, the Chinese Ambassador in Kabul, assured the Taliban’s Ministry of Information and Culture that the Aynak copper project will be carried out without damaging cultural heritage.

TAPI project

The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline, also known as Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline, is a natural gas pipeline being developed by the Galkynysh—TAPI Pipeline Company Limited with participation of the Asian Development Bank. The pipeline will transport natural gas from the Galkynysh Gas Field in Turkmenistan through Afghanistan into Pakistan and then to India.  A ceremony to mark the project’s initiation was held in Turkmenistan on December 13, 2015, and practical work in Afghanistan began on September 11, 2024. The original project started on March 15, 1995 when an inaugural memorandum of understanding between the governments of Turkmenistan and Pakistan for a pipeline project was signed.

In 2022, India had restarted efforts to revive the much-delayed TAPI pipeline project. The pipeline was discussed during a recent three-day state visit to Turkmenistan by Indian President Shri Ram Nath Kovind in that year. The Indian president’s visit to Turkmenistan coincided with the release of the Tunxi Initiative by China, a set of pledges made by representatives from Afghanistan, China,

Iran, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan to assist with Afghanistan’s economic, political, and humanitarian development. Although India was not invited, China made a

point of mentioning TAPI and the Chabahar port, projects that involve India. Originating at the giant Galkynysh gas field in Turkmenistan, the USD 10 billion TAPI pipeline would carry 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas a year via a 1,800-kilometer pipeline that will stretch across Afghanistan.

In addition to TAPI, Pakistan is working on mega project such as CASA-1000 to augment energy cooperation with Central Asia through Afghanistan. CASA-1000 is a power transmission project involving Tajikistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

In September 2023, Turkmenistan started exporting liquefied gas to Pakistan through Afghanistan’s Kandahar for the first time. In the first stage, 50 gas tankers were transferred from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan to Pakistan. Gas was previously transferred to Pakistan through Iran. According to Kandahar Customs officials, Afghanistan has seen a significant increase in cargo shipments to Central Asia since 2021 when a total of 22,891 cargo containers were sent to Central Asian countries through Afghanistan. This number rose to 53,679 consignments in the following year, 2022.

 Economic condition

 A World Bank report in April estimated that 23.7 million Afghans would require humanitarian aid in 2024, more than half of the country’s population, with a staggering nine out of 10 people living in poverty. In its Afghanistan Development Update, the World Bank in May 2024 cautioned about uncertain economic outlook till 2025. “For a sustainable future, Afghanistan needs to address harmful gender policies, invest in health and education, and focus on the comparative advantages it has in the agricultural and extractive sectors,” the report suggested.

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), wide-ranging sanctions against Afghanistan will remain in place in 2024-25. The de facto government run by the Taliban militia will remained shunned on the global stage, as reports of human-rights abuses regularly come to light. However, Afghanistan’s Taliban government on Wednesday said it hoped for a “new chapter” in relations with the United States after Donald Trump’s presidential election victory.

 Observations

The future of this resource rich and geo-strategically vital least developed country (LDC) which connects South and East Asia to the West and Central Asia depends on how China deals with its new partner. For the successful implementation of China’s New Silk Road, Afghanistan will play a critical role.

India also should revive its old historical and cultural relations with this old civilisation for integrating with Central Asian economies and beyond.

Views expressed are personal