Battlelines drawn

On February 5, over 1.5 crore voters in the National Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi will determine the fate of its governance in the 2025 Assembly elections. In the fray are three key contenders: the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the resurgent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Congress party, which once dominated the capital. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), ruling since 2013, is fighting to retain power amid allegations of corruption and anti-incumbency. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), after consecutive Lok Sabha victories, aims to break its 27-year losing streak in the Delhi Assembly. Meanwhile, the Congress is eager to make inroads after years of political upheaval.

‘Overlapping powers’

Delhi has always had a unique administrative and political structure. It is governed by three levels of governance: the Central Government, the Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi (GNCTD), and local government bodies like the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD). This intricate framework often leads to a “multiplicity of agencies” and “overlapping powers,” as noted by political and policy experts. The electorate of Delhi votes in multiple elections: Lok Sabha (seven seats), the Delhi Legislative Assembly (70 seats), and the MCD (250 seats).

For voters, this fragmented governance often translates into blame-shifting between the Centre and the state. The Congress dominated Delhi’s political landscape for three consecutive terms from 1998 to 2013. The AAP, born out of the anti-corruption movement, first assumed power in 2013 for a brief 49-day tenure and then secured two full terms in 2015 and 2020. AAP scored absolute majority with 67 seats in 2015, 62 in 2020 Delhi Assembly elections, leaving three and eight seats respectively to BJP and none to Congress. The 2020 elections saw a voter turnout of 62.59 per cent, lower than the 67.1 per cent recorded in 2015.

In 2015, the BJP secured victories in three constituencies: Rohini, Vishwas Nagar, and Mustafabad. By 2020, their tally had expanded to include new constituencies, primarily concentrated in East Delhi. Meanwhile, the AAP managed to wrest control of one BJP seat, Mustafabad.

AAP’s fight to retain power

Since it assumed power, AAP has reshaped Delhi’s political landscape with its “Delhi Model.” Subsidies on electricity and water, revamped government schools, Mohalla Clinics, and free bus rides for women are its flagship initiatives. These welfare schemes have garnered significant support among the city’s lower-middle-class and poor vote bank, traditional Congress voters.

However, the party faces a ten-year anti-incumbency, which has become more pronounced with the ongoing controversies and corruption charges. Central government investigations into the Delhi Liquor Policy scam, along with charges of corruption, have put the AAP on the defensive. In addition, several of its top leaders, including Manish Sisodia, Sanjay Singh, and Satyendar Jain, have faced arrests, later released on bail. The BJP’s slogan “10 saal dilli behaal” (10 years of a deteriorating Delhi) has been a direct attack on AAP’s governance record, accusing Kejriwal of failing to fulfill his promises.

Meanwhile, Kejriwal’s direct appeal to the electorate, through initiatives like ‘Rewdi pe Charcha’ reflects on the party’s continued reliance on grassroots mobilisation. AAP has also doubled down on the welfare schemes. Its promises include Rs 2,100 a month for women under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Samman Yojana, free healthcare for the elderly, and Rs 18,000 for priests.

BJP: Gunning for a comeback, with ‘parivartan’

To gain hold in areas where AAP draws strong support, the BJP has been conducting outreach campaigns and meetings, targeting unauthorised colonies, slum areas, and lower-income neighborhoods, over the past few months. The BJP, despite being out of power in Delhi’s assembly for 27 years, has maintained a steady vote share, consistently securing more than 30 per cent of the votes in the last six assembly elections. The BJP has struggled in the 12 reserved and 8 minority-dominated seats, failing to win any of them in the 2015 and 2020 Delhi assembly elections.

BJP’s leader Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been at the forefront of the party’s campaign, using his national popularity to galvanise support in Delhi. His call for a “double-engine government” – where the same party rules both the Centre and the state – is a key aspect of the BJP’s messaging. His call for “parivartan” (change) in Delhi, coupled with the slogan “AAPda (AAP) nahi sahenge, badal kar rahenge” (We won’t tolerate disaster, we’ll bring change), has resonated with many voters disillusioned with AAP’s decade-long rule. The BJP has also highlighted issues such as corruption over ‘Sheesh mahal’, civic infrastructure deficiencies, Yamuna river pollution, and poor governance, hoping to capitalise on growing dissatisfaction with AAP.

On lacking a chief ministerial face, Virenda Sachdeva, Delhi BJP President, strongly remarked: “our record shows that we win elections by leveraging the strength of our organisation and the credibility of PM Modi’s leadership. In states of Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Haryana, we didn’t project a Chief Ministerial candidate, yet we won.”

The BJP has also promised in its manifesto monthly assistance of Rs 2,500 to women under Mahila Samridhi Yojana, increased pensions for senior citizens and Rs 21,000 assistance to pregnant women. Modi also stated that if the BJP comes to power, it won’t halt the welfare schemes AAP introduced in Delhi during its previous two terms.

The Congress: Finding relevance

In the run-up to the 2025 elections, Rahul Gandhi held its first public rally in the capital in Seelampur, a minority dominated reserved seat on January 13. The party’s focus is on constituencies where minorities, OBCs, and Scheduled Castes form a significant electorate. A party official explained that while bolstering their grassroots support and revitalising their voter base remains a priority, the party is particularly concentrating on reconnecting with minorities and slum residents, who have historically been loyal Congress voters.

The Congress has seen its fortunes plummet in past assembly elections. The party’s vote share has also dwindled significantly, from 47.76 per cent in 1998 to just 4.2 per cent in 2020.

“Constituencies with a strong minority presence, like Mustafabad, Seelampur, Okhla, Babarpur, Chandni Chowk, Matia Mahal, Ballimaran, and Gokulpuri, have been our consistent supporters over the years,” the Congress official stated.

While Congress is part of the INDIA alliance at the national level, the party is contesting the Delhi elections independently. It has been attacking the AAP for its governance failures, particularly focusing on corruption and the lack of development. The leadership has also promised Rs 2,500 per month for women and Rs 25 lakh in health insurance, in an attempt to woo back the vote bank that supported the party during Sheila Dikshit’s tenure.

Lok Sabha vs. Assembly: A different ballgame

Despite dominating the Lok Sabha elections in Delhi, the BJP has struggled to translate this success into victories in the Delhi Assembly. The BJP has consistently swept all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi in 2014, 2019, and 2024. However, the Assembly results tell a different story. In February 2015, just nine months after the BJP’s Lok Sabha sweep in 2014, the AAP secured victory, winning 67 out of 70 assembly seats with a 54.34 per cent vote share. The BJP managed only three seats with a 32.1 per cent vote share, while the Congress won none, securing just 10 per cent of the votes.

The trend continued in the 2020 Assembly elections, where the AAP retained power with 62 seats and a 53.57 per cent vote share. The BJP improved slightly, winning 8 seats with a 38.51 per cent vote share, but the Congress saw its vote share plunge to 4.2 per cent and failed to win any seats. Now, months after the BJP’s clean sweep in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls with a 54 per cent vote share, the party is aiming to alter the trend with assembly victory in the capital.

Election issues in Delhi have evolved over the years, reflecting shifting priorities among voters. In the 2020 Delhi elections, a Lokniti-CSDS pre-poll survey of 3,335 respondents found development (20.3 per cent) as the top concern, followed by employment (10 per cent), education (6.5 per cent), women’s safety (3.8 per cent), nationalism (3.6 per cent), and inflation (3.5 per cent). Pollution (1.2 per cent) and road conditions (1.9 per cent) were lesser priorities. Over 50 per cent expressed full satisfaction with AAP’s governance, and 25 per cent were somewhat satisfied.

In 2015, a post-poll survey of 2,060 participants ranked inflation (17.3 per cent), corruption (16.7 per cent), and development (11.3 per cent) highest. Similarly, 2013 surveys showed inflation (39.4 per cent) as a major issue, with 49.9 per cent dissatisfied with the UPA government’s performance. Delhi’s electorate reflects sharp divides—urban versus semi-urban areas, and the needs of middle-class families versus working-class populations. AAP’s welfare-centric approach has resonated with the latter, while BJP garners support among upper-income groups and traditionalists.

Where does the Delhi statehood stand?

Hybrid of union territory and state, where the Chief Minister wields limited power compared to the centrally appointed Lieutenant Governor, Delhi is a microcosm of India’s larger federal structure. The fight here is as much about governance as it is about political prestige. While the Delhi Assembly oversees services like health, transport, and education, revenue administration, power generation, health and family welfare; key areas like law and order, land, and urban planning remain under the Centre’s purview through 69th amendment of constitution in 1992, where the LG exercises control over them.

In 1993, Delhi’s first Chief Minister, Madan Lal Khurana called the Delhi Assembly a “body without a soul,” as noted in AAP leader Jasmine Shah’s book The Delhi Model. Sheila Dikshit, Delhi’s longest-serving Chief Minister, after her tenure, stated: “The city would have witnessed better development had my government not been shackled by the present governance structure of Delhi.”

The 2023 NCT Amendment Act shifted more power to the Centre, controlling civil services and administrative decisions. In its judgment, the Supreme Court also highlighted the “triple chain of accountability,” where civil servants must answer to the elected government. Unlike other states, Parliament also holds authority to legislate on matters like healthcare, that fall under Delhi Assembly.

For AAP, a third term would strengthen its governance model and boost national wambitions. For BJP, a win would end a long losing streak and confirm its hold on Delhi. For Congress, any gain would show progress in its political comeback. February 5 and voters’ choice have the answers.

Views expressed are personal