On the Brink

In view of the rapidly deteriorating law and order situation and things slipping out of control, the Army has started taking cognisance of the current dismal scene. On February 24, Chief of Army Staff General Waker-Uz-Zaman asserted that the Army must continue working to maintain law and order until Bangladesh gets an elected government. However, he also stated that it is imperative for the Army to perform its duties without engaging in any unruly behaviour. In his address, the Army Chief’s tone, tenor, and body language were direct, no-nonsense, and filled with a clear caution and warning that he meant business.

In the meantime, credible reports indicate that as March 2025 unfolds and Ramadan begins, the law-and-order situation continues to deteriorate despite the Army's supportive role. While the Army's presence may have helped reduce unrest, troops are not trained to deal with criminal activities in civilian life, including rape, dacoity, mugging, looting, arson, toll collection, and other heinous crimes. Unless the root causes—corruption, economic inequality, and festering political divisions—are addressed, the mere presence of the Army on the streets is unlikely to resolve the ongoing law and order crisis. This aligns with the Army Chief's recent observations.

The government's ambitious Operation Devil Hunt, launched on February 8, appears to be a recent effort to tackle unrest and crime. It has led to 10,570 arrests as of February 26, including 1,141 individuals already wanted for various crimes. Authorities have also seized weapons and ammunition. While these arrests may demonstrate the state's ability to crack down on disorder, they do not address the deeper causes of instability. The operation may bring temporary order and relief, but without real change, it is unlikely to create lasting peace. These statistics, however, seem to be of academic interest only.

Meanwhile, according to the prominent English daily The Daily Star, history shows that prolonged military involvement in law enforcement risks the misuse of power. If long-term stability is the goal, the focus should shift towards institutional reforms, including professional policing and building an effective judicial system. The Army's presence may serve as a symbolic show of strength and generate confidence among citizens, but it is not a panacea for the deep-rooted socioeconomic divide, intolerant political culture, and extreme ideological swings in Bangladesh's political landscape.

On the law and order front, violence continues unabated at several universities. Students Against Discrimination has held multiple rallies at Dhaka University, while similar demonstrations have taken place at Jahangirnagar, Chittagong, Rajshahi, and Jagannath Universities. At Khulna University of Engineering and Technology (KUET), students have recently demanded, among other things, a total ban on student politics. Until these demands are met, classes and exams remain suspended. These developments indicate a sweeping wave of student unrest now prevailing in Bangladesh. Students are clearly emboldened by their participation in the July-August 2024 uprising, amid a widespread perception that they played a key role in ousting Sheikh Hasina’s regime.

At this juncture, student power must be seen as a force to reckon with. This is also perhaps unsettling for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which is impatient to return to power. By their calculations, students could become their principal adversaries if the newly formed student organisation decides to contest the elections—which they likely will.

During his February 24 address, General Waker-Uz-Zaman, the Army Chief, acknowledged that the country was facing a serious problem with a rapidly worsening law and order situation. Blaming it on political turmoil leading to a socio-political crisis, the Army Chief said the situation had become so dire that citizens were constantly preoccupied with vilifying each other. He stated that the anarchy the country was facing was of its own making.

He also expressed concern over the extremely inefficient police force, saying that officers across the board—from senior to junior ranks—were afraid because their peers were either facing judicial cases or were jailed. This, he noted, placed even greater responsibility on the armed forces as law and order was on the verge of collapse. He stressed the urgent need for national unity and institutional discipline.

Judging by his strong speech, which conveyed a warning to the people of Bangladesh, many analysts believe the Army Chief may be cautioning that if law enforcement fails to restore order soon, circumstances may compel the Army to take over the civilian administration. It is also observed that General Waker, largely regarded as a Hasina appointee and relative, is trying to prove his loyalty to the country, dispelling any misunderstandings about his earlier perceived proximity to then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

In a nutshell, the country is currently going through a critical phase, both politically and administratively. It is well known that the Army has a track record of stepping in at crucial moments whenever the 54-year-old nation was at a crossroads. Given that the current situation is worse than before, an Army intervention should not come as a surprise.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal