A polarising presidency

Donald Trump’s resounding victory in the recently held US Presidential elections has evoked mixed reactions in Bangladesh. Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, who is visibly aligned with the Democrats and perceived to have “managed” his Nobel Prize through the singular recommendation of former President Bill Clinton, was quick to congratulate Trump after he was elected, although no discernible response has yet been noticed from the new US President-elect. By deduction, one can infer that Yunus and his team are seemingly confused as to what the new US approach towards Bangladesh might be.

Significantly, earlier, Trump, in a video message, had lambasted the Bangladesh government for allowing continued excesses against the Hindu minorities. While on one hand, this has bolstered the sagging morale of the Hindus in Bangladesh, who continue to be targets of attacks and endless persecution, on the other, the Bangladesh government is trying to face the embarrassment and is half-heartedly attempting to improve its sullied image in the international community. That said, to keep the people’s morale high and to assure the people and the government machinery that all is not lost with Trump’s coming to power, Bangladesh is trying hard to put up a brave face.

It is also pertinent to state that during his visit to the United Nations (UN) this September, on the sidelines, Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, in full public glare, introduced some of his advisors and student activists to Bill Clinton. It is alleged that one of the student leaders introduced is actively associated with Hizb ut-Tahrir (HuT), the radical outfit said to be playing a critical role in the current happenings in Bangladesh. This, if interpreted as indiscreet or tactless, may not have augured well with Trump and his supporters.

Meanwhile, in a recent article, former Bangladesh Ambassador to the US, M Humayun Kabir, stated that Trump's vision was centred on distancing the United States from the outside world by upholding the principle of "America First." His approach was more inward-looking, aimed at restoring the American image during his tenure. However, regarding relations with Bangladesh, Humayun Kabir does not perceive any major changes following the shift in US leadership. He says that in the aftermath of August 5, the Biden administration had pledged cooperation to help Bangladesh address its economic crisis and “hopes” the Trump administration would continue this commitment, maintaining the continuity of US-Bangladesh relations. It must be stated that the US administration has a vested interest in ensuring stability in Bangladesh, as any instability there could ripple across South Asia, according to the former Bangladesh diplomat. Humayun further reckons that US-Bangladesh relations are shaped by regional and geopolitical factors as well as bilateral concerns. From a Republican perspective, particularly Trump’s viewpoint, and in light of the US-China relationship, the White House in all likelihood wants Bangladesh to align with the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS). These thoughts of Humayun Kabir are possibly based on misplaced optimism in an attempt to instill confidence among the Bangladeshi people and their government. Given Trump’s ire over the Bangladesh government’s failure to protect minorities and his inherent unpredictability, it is premature to think that he will adopt such a mild stance towards Bangladesh.

However, regarding the evolving dynamics of Bangladesh-India relations, it remains to be seen how a change in US leadership will influence this. It is possible that the US administration will leave the issue of ties between the two neighbouring countries to the two parties themselves. Again, this seems far-fetched, and one has to observe closely as and when Trump settles down in office.

Meanwhile, according to an editorial in the widely read The Daily Star (November 6), Bangladesh too has its share of concerns that it will seek clarity on sooner rather than later. To understand some of these concerns, it is crucial to consider Trump's past policies and recent statements. Experts say a Trump presidency is likely to bring some, if not substantive, changes to US foreign policy for Bangladesh, with potential ripple effects on issues covering trade, political dynamics, climate change, and Bangladesh's relations with regional powers. However, only time will confirm or refute these views expressed by the newspaper.

In another Trump-related development, the Bangladesh government was caught on the backfoot when several Awami League (AL) supporters were recently seen at different places displaying Trump’s portraits and pro-Trump slogans. The authorities were quick to disperse the activists, even resorting to arrests. To save itself from embarrassment, the media wing of Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus’s office quickly alleged—blaming India—that some Indian newspapers had been “aggressively spreading misinformation” about the student-led mass uprising since former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted in a “popular revolution” in August. They further claimed the reports had “hugely exaggerated” the violence against minorities during the “post-revolution days.” “They just repeated the same canards over the arrest of AL supporters for carrying pro-Trump placards.” Here, the mention of India was clearly avoidable.

From these developments and Trump’s ascension to the US Presidency, it would seem that Bangladesh is not at ease with the clear polarisation emerging between pro- and anti-Trump camps in the country. Possibly, the minority and pro-Hasina, pro-liberation, and progressive forces are happy with Trump’s return to power, while the religious radicals are against Trump and on the defensive, albeit for the time being.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal