Who the hell needs 5G?

For the 'Millennium Post', which has now been listed through Year 2020 as one of the few remaining Indian newspapers that do true reportage, I wrote my fir st column in January-end of 2020. I made just one promise to my good friend, frequent advisor and inputter, the Editor-in-Chief, that I shall write on the telecom industry once, only once, and that I will never write on telecom again. Because I have lived, eaten, drunk and belched telecom for 25 years.

But here I am again, in brand-new Year 2021, bespeaking telecom and talking doomsayer. Happy New Year and Hello, 2021. Because what I see on the horizon today is idiocy, mayhem and senselessness. I know telecom. I always have. I have sometimes had soothsayers and gadhas swearing at me. But I have never been wrong on telecom. And now I know the doom that is lurking around the corner—that's because 5G is the permutation, denomination and capacitor, if we gobble up the math and the physics.

What is 5G? What shall it endow us with? Where shall it take us?

Let's see what Google says—"Every generation of wireless communication standards has brought improvements to telecom technology." Then, why is 5G regarded as the most significant jump in the history of wireless communication, against 2G, 3G and 4G? For an answer, let's look back on the accomplishments and failures of each generation of telecom technology leading to this leapfrogging into another 'new generation'.

3G started the mess

When 2G networks were commercially launched back in the mid-90s, they were ground-breaking. Despite the First-Generation of wireless communication being analog, 2G stopped just short of bordering on the digital, opening new doors for pictures, media messages, texts and encrypted phone conversations to be sent across varying networks. Yes, newer technologies phased out 2G over the years, but large parts of the planet continue to rely on 2G networks even today. Much of Europe, South America, Central America and Africa continue to use 2G networks for communication, even as most of the United States, Japan and others have replaced these with newer-generation versions.

Today, Indian telecom is in a flux.

Truthfully, though, we are a joke. Look at Tata, Uninor, Aircel, RCOM and MTS. Even Bharti Airtel, Vodafone, Idea Cellular and BSNL… Everyone saw 3G as the messiah that would save the day. On an average, Tata, RCOM, Airtel, Vodafone and Idea Cellular invested over Rs 10,000 crore each on 3G spectrum and network rollouts (actually mostly closer to Rs 15,000 crore each) to launch 3G mobile services. None have even seen even close to that number in revenues in 3G over a decade, individually. What a disaster.

Mail them—if they do reply, reluctantly, nonchalantly and off the record, they will admit it. I know most of them rather well and personally. None of them have seen any good fortunes from 3G. They have all burnt their fingers, badly. None of them needs 5G anytime soon. No one has the gumption to take this new messiah on. 'Jo bolta ai yeh galat hai, who jhootha hai' (whoever says otherwise is lying).

But Reliance Jio Infocomm wants 5G auctions.

Why? I frankly don't get this. They have already won the war.

What does 5G do?

Not much more, significantly. Not today, in these times…

5G achieves its latency by operating across many spectrum bands, helping create a malleable and adaptable connection to how and where the user is connecting. Low-band spectrum usages are preferable as they rely on capacity capabilities to work through hard surfaces and yet cover a wide user audience. The shortfall is that it tops out at a data speed of 100 Mbps. Consequently, some geographies have forgone this band, opting to set their minimum tier of 5G performance at the mid-band spectrum (what we are using for 4G in India today). This mid-band spectrum offers reduced latency with less surface penetration and higher peak speeds than the low-band spectrum.

We then arrive at the high-spectrum band, which centers on towers offering incredibly fast, short-distance connections. Deployed in congested and densely populated areas, such as stadia and convention centers, these telecom towers are what technically represent today's tightly-knit towns and cities. Hence, using separate bands to communicate, 5G is smarter, energy efficient and faster than its predecessors. How much faster? Well, some say it could be as much as 10 times faster than your current 4G network.

But does it really matter?

Not in today's time

I don't think so. Nope. Whenever any broadband-proponent and adjudicator tells you that he is right, pierce him in the right (or left, your call) eye. 'Jhooottha'. He is rendered blind. Why?

Well, look at these numbers. Rs 50,000 crore (or many times that, theoretically) apiece is the number that telcos will have to pitch in for 5G spectrum alone, forget the network rollouts. Who has the money, when they are all broke? And what speeds will they offer us—100 Mbps? We get faster speeds sitting at home today. Work and study from home on Wi-Fi networks are now the norm and shall remain so for more than a while. I personally get over 150 Mbps at home all the time. Do I need more—and to do what; teleport myself to the moon?

We have already arrived at the peak of our data speed needs. In these days of COVID-19 (20), we don't want a faster download or upload anymore than 150 Mbps. Not in a country that is done and dusted. Sure, life goes on, and do I even need a Gbps speed record?

Again, what for? Netflix and Amazon Prime are working. So is Hotstar and SonyLiv—they will even work just fine at below 10Mbps.

We are losing the plot. The times are-a-changing and lives are a going a bit topsy-turvy, but let's not forget that we, as a people, are just seeking succor and sustenance, while we wait the pandemic out.

When did it go wrong?

Well, for Indian telecom, it did when we decided to go broadband. The industry was gung-ho and obnoxious and the Government greedy and needy. But neither was ready, and failed to recognize this fact. The rest is history. Over 10 years of high-speed data, telecom has all but died in India.

You want some insidious numbers? Here you go.

In just 3G, the telecom industry had a massive exposure of nearly Rs 150,000 crore in extended debt. At that time, if the telecom industry did not get any relief from the Supreme Court and / or the Department of Telecommunications (DoT), many Indian banks would have been looking at a choppy ride into the sunset. Last week, the State Bank of India and to two other banks have lashed out against three Reliance Group entities—Reliance Communications, Reliance Infratel and Reliance Telecom.

But years back, fearing just such a scenario, the Reserve Bank of India and a consortium of bankers had sent out an SOS to the Government, suggesting a moratorium or installment payments for telecom companies in the matter of payment of AGR dues. That clarion call was ignored. We see the results today—when more than half the operators are gone, and the remaining are up to their necks in debt. As a result, banks are panicking.

Incumbent telecom operators need to share the blame for this ignominious situation. They have splurged too much on marketing, spectrum auctions, network expansion, apart from being completely wrong in their growth and revenue estimations, beginning with the 3G data market outlook. Telcos were also blind to the competitive blitz and were caught totally unprepared, even clueless.

The Government needs to belch too, having wept way too shallow.

Real Estate. Chemicals. Power. Hospitality & Tourism. Aviation & Aeronautics. Infrastructure. Pharmaceuticals. R&D. Housing & Roads. Telecom. Information & Technology. Defense. All of them are crying wolf. Employees present and former are weeping, and thousands have lost their jobs. Months and years down the line, nothing is working. Do you wonder why? We are in a New Year, a hopeful year. Our hope shall live on, as shall we.

A year back, in my first few columns, I had warned that unless radical and sustained measures were taken in the next few weeks and months, the average Indian would feel the impact—on his/her personal life. Unfortunately, nothing was done. And then COVID-19 happened. Together, it has been a sledgehammer blow that has lulled us into near-numbness.

Let's not make another wrong move in this brand-new Year 2021. Let's leave telecom alone, or what little is left will be blown to smithereens in the next few new years. Let's recognize the woods for the trees and clean up our act.

The writer is a communications consultant and a clinical analyst. narayanrajeev2006@gmail.com Views expressed are personal