Future Tense

President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order in an effort to “begin eliminating the federal Department of Education.” With the stroke of his pen, he officially set in motion a plan to shutter the 46-year-old agency, as he said, “once and for all.” But the order stops short of immediately closing the department, which cannot be done without congressional approval. Rather, according to the text of the order released by the White House, it directs Education Secretary Linda McMahon to “take all necessary steps to facilitate the closure of the Department of Education and return authority over education to the States and local communities while ensuring the effective and uninterrupted delivery of services, programs, and benefits on which Americans rely.” At the signing, Trump said federal Pell grants (a common type of federal undergraduate financial aid), Title I funding and resources and funding for children with disabilities would be “preserved in full and redistributed to various other agencies and departments.” “But beyond these core necessities, my administration will take all lawful steps to shut down the department,” he said, adding that he would do so “as quickly as possible.” The move still promises to upend the key functions the department performs in the broader education system, which include oversight of the federal student loan portfolio, civil rights enforcement in schools and the distribution of billions of dollars to help impoverished and disabled students. Several big questions about the Education Department’s future remain unanswered. However, there is still a significant amount known about the agency’s history and duties, as well as the many plans Conservatives have circulated for decades to unwind the agency.

In 1979, Democratic President Jimmy Carter signed legislation that made the Education Department a Cabinet-level agency. Until that point, the government had a Department of Health, Education and Welfare, created during the Eisenhower administration. Conservatives have been clamouring to abolish it for more than 40 years — essentially since it was created. Carter’s successor, President Ronald Reagan, vowed to shut it down one year after it opened — and Republicans have basically repeated that call since. The Education Department is one of the smallest Cabinet-level departments. Its $268 billion appropriation last year represented 4% of the US budget. McMahon announced earlier this month a plan to cut roughly half of the agency’s staff. Among its most prominent duties, the agency manages the $1.6 trillion federal student loan portfolio for college and post-secondary students. It also distributes billions of dollars in funding for K-12 schools through programmes that serve more than 50 million students in nearly 100,000 public schools and 32,000 private schools.

That funding includes more than $15 billion for thousands of so-called Title I schools — schools that receive federal dollars to help low-income families. And it includes more than $15 billion in funding for programmes — under the auspices of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA), which provides grants to states for the education of children with disabilities — that ensure disabled students have access to free and appropriate public education. The Education Department’s Office for Civil Rights enforces laws aiming to prevent discrimination in schools, and the agency’s Institute of Education Sciences runs data collection, statistics and research monitoring student outcomes. The vast balance of power on education, however, still lies with states and local districts, which fund the bulk of K-12 education and set all curriculums. The US Education Department has no say in curriculum matters. It does not set requirements for enrollment and graduation in schools, nor does it have a say in the selection or use of school or library books, textbooks or resources. Schools that receive federal money through Title I programme and IDEA must meet specific conditions and maintain specific reporting rules. Conservatives have long claimed that those requirements are arduous and have pushed for allowing states to have flexibility and freedom to spend the money as they wish.

Even though Trump cannot fully end the Education Department himself, McMahon agreed at her confirmation hearing that the administration hopes to present a plan that Congress would support, and Republicans in the House have introduced various plans that seek to eliminate the department. Still, with narrow Republican majorities in the House and Senate, it’s unlikely to move forward. Yet short of that, the administration has other ways to shrink the department’s footprint. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said ahead of the executive order’s signing that “critical programs will be protected” and that, specifically, student loans and federal Pell Grants would continue to be handled by the department. In addition, senior administration officials have stated that Title I, student loans and students with disabilities — who rely on IDEA funding — will not be affected. Most Education Department responsibilities are codified by law and cannot be eliminated without Congressional approval. Title I, Pell Grants, the Public Service Loan Forgiveness programme, and important anti-discrimination laws, including Title IX and Title VI protecting against sex and racial discrimination, respectively, would not die alongside the department. At her confirmation hearing, McMahon suggested that other federal agencies are equipped to enforce those laws — the Department of Justice could handle discrimination complaints, she said, and the Department of Health and Human Services, run by Robert F Kennedy Jr., could oversee funding and protections for students with disabilities. But properly administering those programmes and laws means far more than just disbursing money. The department funds and releases important research that guides policy implementation and best practices as well. It also has established relationships with thousands of school districts and colleges across the United States.

Reallocating Education Department responsibilities would require students and their families to go to multiple agencies to enforce their rights — not only making the civil rights landscape more complex for families but also burdening other government agencies that often lack the expertise to manage these responsibilities. The Education Department’s Office of Civil Rights, for example, handles tens of thousands of civil rights complaints each year. Now, the question is why is the dismantling happening? The department has long been pilloried by Conservatives who argued that education should remain under state control and the department is polluted by liberal ideas. Before Trump was inaugurated, the department had 4,133 workers. Since his inauguration on January 20, its staff has been nearly halved with 600 employees voluntarily resigning while the rest were placed on administrative leave. As of March 11, there were roughly 2,183 workers in the department. The job cuts are happening alongside workforce cuts across the federal government led by Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The order, on the other hand, is called Improving Education Outcomes by Empowering Parents, States, and Communities. It calls on long-term Trump ally and Secretary of Education Linda McMahon to facilitate the department’s closure.

The order says closing the department would give children and their parents a chance to escape “a system that is failing them”. The data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) showed 70 per cent of eighth graders were below proficient in reading and 72 per cent were below proficient in mathematics. The report highlighted there has not been a significant change in how students have been scoring in reading and mathematics since 2022. More broadly, NAEP data shows that since the early 1970s, average scores for reading for eighth graders have not significantly increased or decreased. From 1973, average mathematics scores rose steadily until 2012, after which they saw a slight dip and steadily decreased before picking up a little in 2024. Trump’s supporters claim that gutting the Department of Education could breathe a new life into an education system that is currently floundering — especially in tech hubs like Silicon Valley. One of the far-reaching and immediate consequences of bidding adieu to the Department of Education would be the disruption of federal funding for K-12 schools. Currently, billions of dollars flow through initiatives like Title I, which supports schools in low-income communities. If the umbrella drifts away, states and local governments will carry the accountability for funding an uneven and unreliable system that can deepen the prevailing systemic disparities. Wealthier districts will continue to encounter an upward trajectory in growth whereas underfunded areas will witness schools grappling for basic amenities and resources. The Department of Education has long stood as a bulwark and kingpin safeguard against discrimination in schools. Its Office for Civil Rights (OCR) enforces Title IX, the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA), and other protections that prevent racial, gender-based, and disability-related discrimination. If these duties are scattered across state agencies, protections will likely become inconsistent and fragile. The lack of federal enforcement could embolden institutions that seek to bypass civil rights laws, putting marginalised students at higher risk of discrimination and exclusion. The Department of Education manages more than $1.6 trillion in federal student loan debt and administers critical financial aid programs like Pell Grants. Bifurcating this responsibility to the Department of the Treasury or private lenders could result in chaos — a surge in borrowing costs, inefficient administration, and weakened borrower protections. Millions of students who rely on federal assistance to attend college could find themselves navigating an unpredictable future.

The Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) guarantees tailored educational support for students with disabilities. Shattering the Department of Education will leave states solely responsible for vindicating these provisions, leading to widening disparities in service availability and quality. Students with special needs could face longer wait times for services, reduced access to individualized education plans (IEPs), and an overall decline in support. The federal government funds billions of dollars in research grants for universities, particularly in STEM fields. If the Department of Education disappears, this funding could dwindle, severely hampering scientific and technological advancements. One of the primary responsibilities of the Department of Education is to have a benchmark for teacher training and certification that ensures educational consistency across the states. If this oversight shifts, states will formulate their own standards, potentially leading to a patched, fragmented, and inconsistent teaching workforce. Some states may lower their requirements to cater to teacher shortages, resulting in an influx of under-qualified educators in classrooms, depreciating the quality of teaching and learning outcomes.

Views expressed are personal