Turbulence in neighbourhood

It’s been nearly five months since the regime change in Bangladesh, our eastern neighbour. Yet, disturbing trends persist, with hardly any signs of improvement. Political aspirants, especially the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), seem to be in a desperate hurry to keep pace with rapidly changing political developments, ostensibly to seize power. In a recent move on December 28, the party's Secretary General, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, protested against a new idea being floated by the Yunus administration to reduce the voting age for the upcoming elections from 18 to 17. According to the BNP, this change would place undue pressure on the Election Commission, which is undesirable at this juncture.

The BNP’s vehement protest on this issue seems to stem from its concern that reducing the voting age would increase the number of students and youth eligible to vote, which might not electorally favour the party. This apprehension arises because Muhammad Yunus believes it was the youth of Bangladesh who played a pivotal role in the July-August uprising that led to the regime change. By aligning with the youth, Yunus hopes to strengthen the current government’s position and thwart the political ambitions of the BNP. In other words, Yunus appears confident that the youth and students remain a formidable force that will steadfastly support the current administration. This also reveals Yunus’ political ambitions, though he seems to lack the astuteness, adroitness, or wisdom typically associated with seasoned politicians. These developments are likely to spark intense political debates as election heat catches up with the emerging new year.

In another development, the Bangladesh Secretariat in Dhaka caught fire a week ago, resulting in the destruction of important documents and infrastructure. This incident has triggered widespread speculation about whether it was a conspiracy, an act of sabotage, or merely an accidental fire. While an inquiry has been ordered, a section of the anti-India lobby is insinuating India’s involvement or that of its agents. They have also suggested that the Awami League (AL) might be behind the incident.

It would appear from the blind and baseless accusations that for anything negative happening in Bangladesh, India is held responsible. This unfortunate trend shows no signs of abating, and there seems to be little effort to counter such damaging allegations.

Another manifestation of anti-India sentiment, reportedly state-supported, is the initiation of a full-fledged inquiry into the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR)—now Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB)—rebellion of February 2009, with insinuations of India’s involvement. It is difficult to comprehend why India would instigate a revolt in another country’s border-guarding force. At the time, the BDR and India’s Border Security Force (BSF) shared good professional relations, making such allegations implausible. These baseless claims highlight how the current Bangladeshi government, under Muhammad Yunus, seems intent on leveraging anti-India propaganda to its benefit, with active support from the local media.

Beyond the anti-India rhetoric, another worrying trend is Bangladesh’s growing proximity to Pakistan—a country it fought against to achieve independence. While a sovereign nation has the right to reconcile with former adversaries, the overtures currently being made raise concerns, particularly for India and for the spirit of Bangladesh’s liberation.

On December 25, the birthday of Pakistan’s founder Mohammad Ali Jinnah was also celebrated in Dhaka in the presence of Pakistani diplomats. Earlier, Jinnah’s 76th death anniversary was observed in Dhaka, again in the presence of Pakistani diplomats. These events cannot always be dismissed as purely ceremonial or ritualistic. There are forces at work aiming to bring these two countries closer. If this trend continues at a steady pace or regular intervals, it is almost certain that security and intelligence cooperation between the two nations will also increase, with a singular focus against India. This pattern was evident during previous BNP regimes, and the same trend appears to be reemerging now.

Observing their growing proximity, it is highly likely that the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which has historically used Bangladesh as a conduit for its third-country operations—including support for North Eastern (NE) insurgents in India through shelter and training within Bangladesh—will intensify its activities, raising significant security concerns for India.

In another Pakistan-related development, reports suggest that dangerous explosives capable of destroying large structures and causing significant casualties were recently discovered in two containers aboard the cargo ship MV Yuan Xiang Fa Zhong, which arrived at Chattogram Port from Karachi, Pakistan, on December 21.

A port official shared images and details of the containers with a news portal, including one container labelled WHLU-42617942G1, which bore the word “Explosive” inside a red square. An intelligence source confirmed to the media that Navy officials detained the containers for an hour after the discovery during an inspection but later released them under undisclosed circumstances. If accurate, this development appears suspicious.

An initial order to halt delivery was issued following the discovery, but the goods were cleared for release within an hour, reportedly due to instructions from higher authorities. Some sources indicated that the containers did not originate directly from Cambodia but arrived at Chattogram via Pakistan and the UAE. Although information printed on the cartons suggested a Cambodian origin, confirmation about the manufacturer is still awaited.

Port sources further revealed that importing explosive materials requires strict adherence to protocols, including special permissions and designated handling procedures. Such materials, classified as “dangerous goods,” are typically unloaded under heightened safety measures. However, these protocols were seemingly ignored, and the goods were perhaps released in haste.

Meanwhile, sources indicated that the explosives have already been transported to Sylhet and Keraniganj. They emphasized that the shipment was not intended for the military or any law enforcement or security agencies. According to port officials, the MV Yuan Xiang Fa Zhong primarily carried refined sugar, mineral dolomite, soda ash, fabric rolls, scrap metal, molasses, food items, lubricant oil, and machinery from Pakistan and the UAE. However, the cargo manifest did not list the explosives. A thorough investigation is expected to shed more light on this matter.

Judging by these developments, it appears Bangladesh is not only losing its goodwill with India but also undermining its own media and political integrity. This regressive stance is eroding the harmony that prevailed in the pre-August 5 period and is doing a disservice to regional stability.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal