Sweltering coolants!

Demand for air conditioners (ACs) is surging in markets where both incomes and temperatures are rising, including in populous countries like India, China, Indonesia and the Philippines. By one estimate, the world will add one billion ACs before the end of the decade. The market is projected to nearly double before 2040. That’s good for measures of public health and economic productivity; but it’s bad for the climate. And a global agreement to phase out the most harmful coolants could keep the appliances out of reach of many of the people who need them the most. The logic behind the AC boom is simple. Economists note a spike in sales when annual household incomes near USD 10,000, a tipping point many of the world’s hottest places touched recently or will soon.

The AC manufacturers are operating in a limitless opportunity and, in recent years, on an average, AC sales have grown more than 15 times. This development has far-reaching consequences for public health, wellbeing and economic growth. Purchasing an AC is a pivot away from poverty for individuals and for their communities. People in hotter countries, which also tend to be poorer ones, suffer from worse sleep and impaired cognitive performance, both of which drag on productivity and output. In a study looking at thousands of Indian factories with different cooling arrangements, researchers found that productivity fell by around 2 per cent for every degree Celsius increase. This is a big deal for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s push to boost sluggish export numbers, lure business from China and move up the global value chain; the declines due to heat over the past 30 years may equate to roughly 1 per cent of India’s GDP, or about USD 32 billion by value of money, according to environmentalists. Wealthier, more temperate countries have tightened regulations on ACs, requiring better energy efficiency and less-toxic coolants. That adds to the cost of units, making those kinds of measures less palatable where affordability is paramount. International climate bodies are pressuring developing countries to lower their carbon footprint, but India and its peers point out that they still contribute far less to global emissions than countries like the US, where nine out of ten people have access to AC. We’re facing a situation where extraordinarily harsh conditions are being imposed on growing economies.

For many in India's working-class neighbourhoods, access to an AC is a matter of survival. Their shanty turns into a furnace in the summer. The tin roof gets hot enough to cook roti on it. Before sleeping they need to splash water on their bed to cool down the room. To afford an entry-level AC, many of them stop buying clothing, cut down on meals, take out a loan and double the number of hours of their working. As night falls, they flip on the switch and close the door, keeping the mosquitoes out and preserving the cool air.

As more and more working-class people buy ACs, cooling companies are trying to improve energy efficiency without pricing out their biggest growth markets. Most G-20 nations, including India, use labelling systems to rate the efficiency of products, and stricter standards in the US and European Union have lowered energy use from appliances by 15 per cent in recent years. A normal three-star AC unit from any standard company, costs about Rs 27,000, or roughly 15 per cent less than comparable higher efficiency options. Three-star units comprise about 60 per cent of total AC sales. One way to encourage consumers to buy more efficient models, the experts say, would be to lower taxes on the units to 18 per cent, down from the 28 per cent luxury tariff that currently applies. This is because AC has become a necessity now, it is no longer a luxury item.

For cooling companies, the growing demand for ACs could be quashed by regulation designed to slow climate change. Part of the problem will be solved if and when countries move toward cleaner sources of power. The other issue — the refrigerants that turn that electricity into cool air — is trickier. One of the most common coolants, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), can have 1,000 times the warming potency of carbon dioxide. Scientists estimate that failing to drastically lower dependence on HFCs could result in half a degree Celsius of warming by the end of the century, an enormous contribution to a rise that would trigger deadlier storms, droughts and, yes, more heatwaves. For India, the challenge is to implement cleaner technology before millions of new consumers purchase the dirtier ACs, locking in their use for another decade. If efficiency standards don’t improve, then the planet will literally be cooked. If we do not start contemplating on a plan to fight the problem from today itself, then tomorrow may be too late.

Views expressed are personal