On the brink of transition?

It would appear from the games that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is playing that it is now clear it is on a fast track to hog the political space in Bangladesh and fill the vacuum created in the wake of the regime change in Dhaka. Party Chairman Tarique Rahman is issuing statements at regular intervals from his hideout in London, calling for unity and constantly cautioning the people against any attempt by Hasina to make a comeback. With most of the criminal cases against him withdrawn, he is naturally emboldened and remains active on social media and in the vernacular press, trying to marginalise all other political forces and ensuring they do not get the slightest elbow room for any manoeuvres.

In a politically significant development, the party's General Secretary, Mirza Fakhrul Alamgir, spent several days conferring with Tarique in London and returned only recently with a fresh blueprint. The party, in a carefully crafted plan, is keeping the freedom fighters and the pro-liberation narrative alive. This is particularly relevant because Victory Day (December 16) has just passed, and Bengali emotions are still reminiscent of the bloody sacrifices made by intellectuals and the country during the liberation war 53 years ago. This is a formidable political weapon that the BNP will likely use in its political machinations to come back to power after so many years in oblivion.

The BNP has also started wooing the Hindu minority, who continue to suffer large-scale atrocities at the hands of religious extremists and fanatics. In this way, the party aims to wean away any sympathy that the remnants of the Awami League (AL) or the Jamaat are trying to generate for vote-bank purposes. At the same time, the BNP is deftly maintaining good relations with those lobbies upset with developments following the arrest of ISKCON leader Chinmoy Krishna Das. The party, with ambitious political designs, is striking a delicate balance between all the political camps that matter in the current power game.

Such signals clearly indicate that once the remaining cases against Tarique are cleared (major cases against Tarique’s mother, Khaleda Zia, have already been withdrawn), the stage will be set for his return to occupy a crucial position in the country, dwarfing other political adversaries. As it stands, the Jamaat and its affiliates have little following among the minorities, intelligentsia, or armed forces. It must be noted that Tarique’s father, General Ziaur Rahman, the erstwhile President and widely recognised as a freedom fighter, is believed by many to have been the first to announce Bangladesh as a liberated and free country in 1971 from Kalurghat.

In furtherance of its anti-India activities and in pursuit of its desperation to come to power, BNP held a long march this month when its activists from the Jatiotabadi Jubo Dal and Jatiotabadi Chatra Dal, parked in 5,000 cars, went up to the Akhaura border in Tripura. The entire exercise was obviously a show of force, flexing muscles to exhibit to the people that BNP was still a force to reckon with, fanning anti-India sentiments. Their march was to protest against India’s alleged interference in the internal affairs of Bangladesh as well as to register their ire against the vandalism of the Bangladesh Consulate in Agartala. The march, however, was stopped 1 km before the Indian border.

In the meantime, under Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, there is a thought being fostered that the almost defunct South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), founded by General Zia, must be revived. Many ideas are also being generated that Bangladesh, in order to isolate India, must try to join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), come closer to Myanmar by shunning all the bickering, engage in robust trade, and collaborate with other South Asian countries to become economically and commercially independent of India. Political analysts in Dhaka feel that it is time for Bangladesh to seek new partners and friends and move on, ignoring India, though in reality, this is easier said than done. Crucially, Tarique Rahman is silently crafting a policy to adhere to these plans, as today there is a virulent anti-India sentiment prevailing in the country. It is now easier to capture the mindset of the people, who are living in a state of uncertainty due to the failed and poor administration of the Yunus-led government.

Another important factor to remember is the considerable following of the BNP among the armed forces, mainly because of ex-President Zia. There must also be many adherents of the Jamaat in the Cantonment, but they can be easily sidelined by the relative charisma of the BNP, which, in the absence of the AL, is proceeding with abundant caution and a plan. However, its political advisors are mistaken if they think they can ignore India and move on. The anti-India bias may be short-lived in Bangladesh, and this reality must be factored in. It is not easy to shake off age-old cultural and historical ties between India and Bangladesh. The foundation is so strong that it will assert itself at some point and, in all likelihood, may reverse all the grandiose plans of the BNP. Also, Indian security interests will never be compromised if BNP at all comes to power. Like in its previous regimes, when it had openly supported and harboured anti-India Indian insurgents, giving their activities a fillip, history bears testimony to this. Indian security and intelligence agencies are alert on this score.

Meanwhile, fast-changing political developments in Bangladesh clearly indicate that Chief Advisor Yunus is gradually losing his grip on governance, and people too are losing trust in his administration, with no area of activity under control—be it economic downslide, rising prices, failing law and order, or below-par external affairs policies. Knowledgeable quarters within Bangladesh are not ruling out a change in the administration sometime next year, with the army now playing a tacit role, asserting a definite roadmap, possibly for a new dispensation, upsetting all the plans currently in the pipeline. They claim it’s just a question of time. This could be the likely reason why the BNP, under Tarique Rahman, is in a hurry to come to power, and much will depend on how Mirza Fakhrul, with his new charter received from London, implements the plans on the ground.

India, in all its wisdom and political and diplomatic maturity, is watching the developments very closely, especially after the recent visit of Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri. The Bangladesh Foreign Office shouldn’t underestimate India or assume that all is lost between the two countries, and it must dispel the wishful thinking that Bangladesh can conveniently wipe India off its drawing board. Regimes come and go, but a country with solid democratic foundations, like India, with established institutions and a vibrant democracy, will continue to pursue its policies and objectives irrespective of whether a government is favourable to its desires. The Bangladeshi media, which has sadly taken on India, targeting its media in particular rather acerbically, must take note and tone down its rhetoric, as it is doing more disservice to bilateral ties than contributing to any repair.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal