Frozen ties

The Indo-Pakistan hostility is a long-marinated issue in the history of global diplomacy. Anti-Pakistan sentiment has always been fuming among Indians. This puts forward a dicey situation in front of Pakistan. Currently, the question arises: what's next with the Indo-Pakistan differences?

Considering the escape of Sheikh Hasina, the political governing structure of Bangladesh has turned upside down. Following the reconstruction of the government, the emergence of Jamaat could be seen in the political dynamics of Bangladesh. The reappearance of Jamaat is a clear indication of the reinforcement of Pakistan's dominance over Bangladesh. The involvement of Pakistan is assumed to be imposed over Bangladesh by being in the shadow of Jamaat. On the other hand, Bangladesh, with its new governing body, assures to take positive steps towards India-Bangladesh diplomatic relations. Here the point is, what would India do about its ties with Bangladesh even after knowing the current stand of Pakistan relating to Bangladesh? According to Indian authorities, we should not take any confrontational approach to Dhaka. We should not delink the diplomatic tie, but we have to be assertive about the increasing attack on the Hindu minority.

What will be our strategy for Pakistan? Pakistan is standing on the verge of its economic collapse, and India is the only ray of hope for them. The nation desires to build mutual bilateral ties with India. Intended to strengthen their relationship, Pakistan offered their hand of cooperation by mutually opting for a ceasefire during the ongoing poll in J&K to maintain a tranquil situation. Recently, an aircraft carrying PM Modi unexpectedly flew through Pakistani airspace on its return from a visit to Poland. Moreover, the usual practice of conveying a goodwill message while passing through a neighbouring country's airspace was not followed this time. Modi chose not to send one sparking discussion about the strained relationship between India and Pakistan. Most importantly, Pakistan had previously closed its airspace for Indian flights following heightened tensions in 2019 but has reopened it for commercial air traffic, including the recent flight carrying PM Modi. This time, even though Pakistan criticised this move of India, they decided not to go overboard regarding the issue.

Furthermore, India has served a notice to Pakistan, seeking a review of the Indus Water Treaty. The notice was sent concerning Kishanganga and Ratle Hydroelectric Projects. The notification highlights fundamental changes in circumstances that require a reassessment of obligations under various Articles and treaties. With this notice, India called Pakistan to begin government-to-government negotiations under the provisions of Article XII (3) of the treaty. The Indus system of rivers comprises three eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—and their tributaries, and three western ones—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, along with their tributaries. India has raised concerns regarding several issues, including changes in population demographics and environmental issues. In the UN General Assembly, Pak PM mentioned the Kashmir issue by comparing it with Palestine. The Indian authorities came up with a counterreaction, but the diplomatic circle of the Ministry of External Affairs thinks this is a routine rhetoric.

Pakistan has come up with their official invitation for the Prime Minister of India for the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) Council of Heads of Government meeting to be held in Islamabad on October 16. There is a strong possibility that the Indian Foreign Minister, Dr S Jaishankar, will represent India at the conference. The SCO meeting hosted by Pakistan this year was supposed to be attended by PM Modi. But if PM Modi couldn't make it, can Pakistan expect the External Affairs Minister, S Jaishankar, to be present there? The presence of Jaishankar is still dicey, provided by two other proposals. One is that Jaishankar can attend the meeting via video conference, similar to the last SCO Summit, which was organised virtually. On the other hand, some significant officers of the External Affairs Minister can also attend on his behalf.

Pakistan is in a lamentable situation for several reasons, including its economic downfall. The nation is in a state of starvation with a constantly deteriorating economy. Pakistan is currently working up a loan from the IMF. The former Army Staff Gen. Manoj C Pande started communicating with the National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, when the Pakistan Army wanted Pakistan to have a war. India’s strategists thought to have a better link with the Pakistani army; as the real navigator of power is the Pakistani army, the rest of the authorised positions are for show. Therefore, the Rawalpindi connectivity is an integral part of Indo-Pak diplomacy.

Narendra Modi, as a Prime Minister, tried to nurture the diplomatic strains with Pakistan. He invited Nawaz Sharif to his oath-taking ceremony. Disrupting all the protocols, the PM decided to join Nawaz Sharif on one of his family occasions at his abode in Pakistan. However, the terrorism against India by none other than Pakistan was an alarming situation for PM Modi. He was bound to take a stand for his country by parting their diplomatic ways once and for all. The current stand of Pakistan is a whole new ball game, especially after the Uri and Pulwama attacks. Pakistan is ready to provide airspace to India for commercial flights. Pakistan is eager to talk with India and is on track with the Pakistani army, promising to continue the ceasefire at the J&K border during the polls. Presently, there is an armistice situation at the border, which suddenly brings the confusing Indo-Pak relationship under the spotlight. PM Modi seems to be strict enough regarding his stand of not trying to dissolve the differences. Members of the Indian government do not want to take any U-turn in their Pakistan policies, as they don't share the trust of being a neighbouring country any more.

There is a greater chance that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar will attend the meeting if the J&K poll proceeds without disruption. Pakistan has not engaged in any terrorist acts as of now. If Pakistan can keep the atmosphere calm throughout the election, the likelihood of Jaishankar participating in the meetings and discussions between India and Pakistan would inevitably rise. The last SCO summit was hosted by India near the time of the G20 summit, which was organised in an online virtual mode. The then-foreign minister of Pakistan, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, was a part of the summit, but there was no bilateral talk or even an exchange of greetings with India. Remembering the last-to-last summit before India hosted the SCO Summit, there was a mutual exchange of dialogue between India, Russia, and China, but Pakistan was excluded as always.

India has consistently stated that it wants to have normal neighbourly relations with Pakistan, but it has insisted that Islamabad must establish an atmosphere free from hatred and terror for this to happen. Simultaneously, Pakistan seems to bend over backwards to break the ice between both the neighbouring nations. We believe that this is a better and more appropriate time for India and Pakistan to begin dialoguing, but India should do it gradually and step by step. We can reopen the High Commission's office on both sides before we have a conversation. Right now, we have the option to hope against hope.

Views expressed are personal