Act II Trump-corn

It can take a bit of getting used to — that US citizens would choose a convicted felon as President for the second time. And the writing couldn’t be clearer. Where the US is concerned, anyone is better than a woman. While the reality is that there wasn’t much to thrust Kamala Harris miles ahead of Donald Trump, there was a latent hope that at least the saner leadership would prevail. Trump’s decisive win has gobsmacked dissidents and naysayers. He wanted to “Make America Great Again” and his voters believed that he was the man for the job. Trump in the White House will have far-reaching ramifications on India and the world, bringing forth a mixed bag of goodies and nasties for the former.

Trump’s allergy towards China could herald pleasant tidings for us. With Trump likely to increase import tariffs for China, the move could benefit India. The US is India’s leading trade partner with total exports amounting to USD 77.5 billion in FY24 and a total bilateral trade of approximately USD 120 billion. Trade and business opportunities could also possibly move attention towards India from China. Manufacturing units could flip from China to India providing a boost to the central government’s ‘Make in India’ initiative. However, his “America First” approach has signalled a protectionist and isolationist approach towards bilateral ties and economic strategies, meaning some hike in tariffs that could impact India as well. Let’s not forget that only recently Trump called India a “big abuser” of US trade ties. It will remain to be seen if he decides to implement the rhetoric through actionable policies.

Trump’s return to the Oval Office would also mean a shift from renewables and climate-focussed initiatives to fossil fuels and traditional industries. India can gear up for volatility in the foreign exchange markets with the Rupee likely to weaken against the Dollar. Experts predict that a depreciation of the Indian currency could finally lead to it breaching the 85 mark. If the American central bank, the US Federal Reserve, actions fewer rate cuts, it would affect global monetary policies, including in India.

The US would possibly become more authoritative in the geopolitics of our region and Trump’s friendship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi would mean greater collaboration between both nations on the defence and security. Under Trump, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), an association between the US, India, Japan, and Australia, may be further fortified. Restrictive immigration policies would negatively affect Indian professionals seeking H-1B visas. However, the startup community remains gung-ho about attracting from American moolah. While Indian entrepreneurs are keeping a watchful eye, Trump’s previous low-interest regime has Indian entrepreneurs optimistic about a rejuvenated funding flow. The Republicans controlling the Senate, Congress, and the White House indicates stability of policy. Additionally, any tax cuts that are passed onto the corporate world would augur well for Indian startups looking for funding. With former venture capitalist JD Vance in the Vice-President’s seat, tech investors and entrepreneurs expect a regime that assumes a friendly stance towards them.

A vibrant and influential Indian community will likely direct or thwart policies that threaten Indian interests. Five years ago, PM Modi led calls of “Ab ki baar Trump sarkar” in Houston Texas. While he was missing from Trump’s election rallies this time, hopefully their much-touted friendship has not completely frozen over. Will Trump’s victory finally heal America and the world? Will he push to stop ongoing wars? If his past tenure is anything to go by, then expectations from Trump 2.0 are abysmally low. The only way from here is up (we pray).

The writer is an author and media entrepreneur. Views expressed are personal