A tricky opportunity

The advent of electric vehicles (EVs) in India represents a pivotal move towards curbing pollution and embracing sustainable transportation solutions. The EV story began in the 1830s with Robert Anderson’s early motorised carriage powered by non-rechargeable batteries. The advent of rechargeable batteries in 1859 marked a significant advancement, and by the 1880s, electric cars were functional and set speed records for their quiet, clean operation.

In 1908, the Ford Model T revolutionised the automotive world with its affordable, gasoline-powered internal combustion engine, offering greater range and convenience compared to electric cars, which were up to 10 times more costly by the early 1920s. Internal combustion engines soon overshadowed the early electric models.

Today, the trend is reversing due to advances in battery technology, rising fossil fuel prices and increasing environmental concerns. Countries like Norway and the Netherlands are setting ambitious targets to phase out fossil fuel vehicles, though most cars on the road are still internal combustion engine-powered. In India, the focus on electric public transport laid the groundwork for early electric cars like Lovebird and Vikram Safa in the 1990s. A key milestone was the 2001 launch of Reva, India’s first mass-produced electric car. Government schemes like FAME (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid & Electric Vehicles), introduced in 2015, have boosted growth, especially for affordable two-wheelers. Transitioning from electric public transport to widespread personal EVs in India involves overcoming challenges related to affordability, infrastructure and policy. India is expected to become the third-largest market for EVs globally within the next five years, driven by rapid industry development. However, the fact that 80-85 per cent of India’s lithium-ion batteries are imported from China raises sovereignty concerns.

The country must develop a robust EV supply chain domestically and reduce reliance on foreign sources, thus enhancing pollution control and economic sovereignty.

In India’s federal structure, electricity is a state subject, placing the burden of powering EVs on states. Most states generate electricity from coal, a significant pollutant, and offer it at subsidised rates. Conversely, states earn revenue from oil through taxes. The transition to EVs could negatively impact state finances, as they would need to cover the cost of power for EVs while losing oil revenue. This could lead to budgetary imbalances. The expected forex savings from reduced oil imports might be offset by the import of batteries, necessitating clearer projections. The Indian Government’s ambitious goal to electrify 30 per cent of the vehicle fleet by 2030, supported by incentives and subsidies, underscores this commitment.

Major automakers and startups are actively introducing EV models and investing in charging infrastructure. Despite these advancements, challenges such as limited charging infrastructure and higher initial costs remain. Nonetheless, as technology evolves and costs decrease, the EV market in India is poised for significant growth. However, the assumption that EVs are universally cost-effective and environmentally benign warrants scrutiny. The shift to EVs is vital for reducing emissions and combating climate change. While India’s transition to personal EVs could offer carbon emission advantages, it hinges on leveraging domestic energy resources and revising policies, power generation and distribution systems.

The case of polythene bags, initially deemed eco-friendly but later causing significant pollution, mirrors the potential risks associated with EVs. The success of EVs depends on effectively managing their environmental impact. Integrating renewable sources like wind and solar is crucial for providing a steady, eco-friendly energy supply and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, the high cost of battery replacement, often monopolised by a few manufacturers, could lead to significant maintenance expenses after four or five years of operation. Addressing these factors, along with the implications for India’s sovereignty and state finances, is essential.

The transition to EVs must be carefully managed to avoid unintended environmental and economic consequences, ensuring that the move to cleaner transportation does not come with new challenges. A shift of 10 per cent of oil-dependent vehicles to EVs over the next three or four years could demand an additional 900 megawatts of energy daily. Meeting this demand might require installing a thermal plant every alternate year. Wealthier individuals might afford EVs, while poorer households could face reduced electricity availability for basic needs.

Lithium-ion batteries used in EVs contain essential materials such as lithium, nickel, manganese and cobalt. Each tonne of lithium requires around 20 lakh litres of water for evaporation, making current brine mining methods unsustainable. With the rise in EVs, proper disposal and recycling of used batteries are crucial to minimising environmental and health risks. India needs improved recycling infrastructure and incentives for better practices.

EVs help reduce tailpipe pollution and noise pollution, leading to quieter streets and improved urban soundscapes. However, they don’t fully address traffic congestion.

Subsidising personal vehicle travel can worsen congestion, as seen in the UK, where CO2 emissions from private cars rose despite improved fuel efficiency. In India, EVs introduce safety concerns such as electrocution risks from high-voltage systems in post-impact scenarios. Research indicates that heavy EVs are twice as likely to be involved in pedestrian accidents compared to traditional vehicles. Given India’s high pedestrian and cycle traffic, specific research is needed to address these safety issues effectively.

While EVs are viewed as eco-friendly, their manufacturing process and charging infrastructure require substantial energy. With 60 per cent of India’s states relying on thermal power from fossil fuels like coal, it’s akin to running cars on coal. The well-to-wheel (WTW) analysis examines the full energy lifecycle of EVs, including battery mineral extraction, refining, transport and vehicle power, often derived from coal-based electricity. Despite zero tailpipe emissions, WTW calculations suggest that production and disposal might diminish some environmental benefits. The shift to EVs is vital for reducing emissions and combating climate change. While India’s transition to personal EVs could offer carbon emission advantages, it hinges on leveraging domestic energy resources and revising policies, power generation and distribution systems.

Views expressed are personal