A Calculated Provocation?

Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus of Bangladesh seems extraordinarily ecstatic over his recently concluded China visit (26-29 March). Bangladesh media is also upbeat about the trip as they perceive proximity to China will help alienate India from Bangladesh, particularly in view of the plummeting relations with India in the wake of Sheikh Hasina’s ouster and the developments that ensued. Similarly, the students with political inclinations and closeness to Yunus are also feeling upbeat on this visit. During his China stay, Yunus met (March 28) Chinese President Xi Jinping and sought more investments to revive Bangladesh’s fledgling economy, hit by political and economic crisis. “It’s very important that we see China as our good friend,” Yunus said, apparently projecting Beijing as a balancing factor against New Delhi. Later, Yunus said he expects bilateral relations to enter a new stage. However, a most revealing feature of the visit was Yunus’ statement that the seven North East Indian States being landlocked, Dhaka was the only ‘guardian’ of the ocean for this region. Such a statement seemed tactless, on the face of it and has surprised many, not only in Bangladesh but also in the Chinese camps closely watching both countries. It is a known fact that for India, access to and from the Northeast states — through the ‘Chicken’s Neck’ corridor in north Bengal — has been a challenge, economically and strategically. Over the last decade and a half, this formed an important element of Delhi’s engagement with Dhaka as it worked with the previous government led by then Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on ways to transit through Bangladesh. This alarming and uncalled-for statement has already started inviting criticism and concern in Indian and related strategic circles.

According to experts, with Yunus’s comments, Dhaka is seen as projecting its leverage on access to Northeast India and his attempt to project Beijing as the new partner adds a layer of complexity to the already low India-Bangladesh ties. Not just the Indian Northeastern States, Yunus also referred to Nepal and Bhutan, as he tried to overture China to make investments in Bangladesh. He further said that there was an opportunity that both countries to seize and implement the plan as Nepal and Bhutan have unlimited hydropower, which he thought was a blessing. Yunus, during the China visit, also sought Beijing’s expertise in river water management and proposed the need for a 50-year master plan and the management of the Teesta water project.

While in China, Yunus also inked several Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs). The visit, coinciding with the 50th anniversary of diplomatic ties between the two countries, marked an important moment in bilateral relations between the two nations. Significantly, Bangladesh is likely to invite Chinese firms to modernize Mongla Port and expand the Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone (CEIZ) in Chattogram. China pledged crucial financial support, including $400 million for Mongla Port, $350 million for the CEIZ, and $150 million in technical assistance, with additional grants to follow. With Bangladesh’s economy in dire straits, attracting Chinese investment might be critical for Yunus. But what is difficult to fathom is his uncalled-for reference to India’s seven northeastern states, primarily designed to send messages across the Bangladesh frontiers.

As Bangladesh may be buoyant with Yunus’s much hyped China visit, sources close to Bangladesh establishment reckon that being ignored by the US and possibly due to prompting by new find ally Pakistan, Bangladesh is trying to warm up to China to send signals mainly to India and the US that Bangladesh is not alone and more importantly it is no longer dependent on India. However, how long this new bonhomie with China will last will depend on several factors, including the Army’s role, the fast-changing political developments within the country, and the upcoming elections due in the near future. All said and done, remarks of Yunus on India’s North Eastern States to attract Chinese investments are nothing but provocative. It could also possibly be to divert the attention of the restive population, which is struggling with the prevailing anarchy and lawlessness in the country. Yunus perhaps thinks that by reaching out to China, he would irk the Indians and the Americans and earn some brownie points from the student community and anti-India jehadi elements who prefer any day proximity to China and Pakistan rather than India. Basically, to ponder the domestic constituency. The ambitious Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has already described Yunus’s China visit as a success. This is an indication that the fresh mood in Bangladesh is perhaps for China, which could, however, be a temporary feeling. And this is by implication, to deliberately incur the wrath of India. Analysts think that Yunus is wide off the mark with his wishful assessment.

In the meantime, if a meeting with PM Modi happened in Bangkok on the sidelines of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Summit, the outcome might also merit inclusion in reviewing the fresh Sino-BD relations.

It may also be recalled that China was not with Bangladesh at any stage during the latter’s struggle for liberation, fighting against the Pakistani occupation forces. Also, as history records, China recognized Bangladesh as a newly independent country much later. Its attempts, therefore, to woo Bangladesh may be more out of geopolitical convenience than genuine warmth, as in the case of India.

Views expressed are personal