Talking Shop: Bloating naiveté

"To overcome poverty and

economic crisis, we have to

free our minds, imagine what

hasn't happened, write fiction.

We need to imagine things to

make them happen. If you don't

imagine, it will never happen..."

— Brainyquote

Little birdy Brainyquote knows what it was talking about, for if we talk India just in the last year, imports from China have gone up by an average of 12 per cent. In the same period, India's exports to China have come down by a whopping 31 per cent. This disturbing phenomenon occurred at a time when continuing border tensions with China were at their highest and Indians brazenly announced an aversion to Chinese products, saying they would ban them. What happened next? Well, Doklam and Galwan Valley did. We shall not even go to Arunachal Pradesh and India's rabbit collar border there, for the least said about this is best.

Let's fast-forward to today and take a look at what is really happening at the ground level. Imports of Indian Railways-related equipment from China are up by 216 per cent. Imports of automobile components from that same country have jumped 125 per cent, while that of power-related equipment are up 23 per cent. In another clear scoff-gaff, imports of dark glasses and eyewear products are up 170 per cent, even as that of watches and clocks are up by 141 per cent. Chemicals for industrial products have increased drastically, and the trade deficit is now at alarming levels. To quote a rupee figure, it is now today at US $72.9 billion, which works out to Rs 5,83,799 crore in rupee terms.

For the story with China, here are more numbers, for India pays (in foreign exchange) Rs 5,83,799 crore more than what we get in forex. In Year 2017, the trade deficit was Rs 5,03,000 crore. When the Government made pacts to reduce this deficit, it did manage somewhat in 2018, down to Rs 4,26,000 crore, Rs 3,88,000 crore in 2019-20 and Rs 3,51,000 crore in 2021. Yet, today's truth is different. Clearly, economic relations with China are strengthening. Still, China is reaching out for the bottleneck in Bhutan to perhaps gain further entry into India. How's that for a sobering intro?

Harsh reality

The truth is that India is all but completely dependent on the external world for fuel oil procurement, as it is for edible oils and the development of its renewable energy sector. The falling rupee is making matters worse. And there is a new monkey wrench in the works, with none less than the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) warning the powers that be that the grow(l)ing impetus being enjoyed by crypto-currencies will possibly have a dangerous and debilitating impact on our long-term economy.

Here's more. Our national debt has risen to US $600 billion, while foreign exchange reserves are down to US $580 billion. To curb this trend, the RBI is trying to ensure that investments by Indian companies overseas are stunted to an extent—putting limits on how much India's Corporates can invest overseas in dollar terms. That's a start. But there is a long way to go. And that's because when any country's debt to reserves ratio hits near-90 per cent, there's cause for alarm.

The crux of this story is China's global ambitions. What began as a trade and tech-war between Beijing and Washington is now a war of new ideas and ways and this has been written by esteemed journalists. For years, China has been nitwit sniping away at the pillars of the erstwhile United States-led Global Village, oft-offending and publicly-crucifying its foundations, ideas and ideals, yet offering no true vision of how a replacement global leader led by China may and will work. And then happened COVID-19, which led the world to try and change its tryst and tripe with China, but clearly nothing has happened.

New global order

China has proffered ideas for a new global order quite often and very liberally, titling it the 'Global Security Initiative' (GSI), a bold new platform of principles on international affairs and diplomacy. The country argues that this will make the world a safer place and includes proposals such as countries resolving their disputes through dialogue, respecting one-another's differences and be considerate of varying national interests to achieve global security. That is complete fluff, because China's actions betray its words and intent. Any new global order is one that is inclusive and protrudes beyond realms, egos and any vestigial fantasy of global supremacy.

The fact that much of the world now lacks leaders of substance and vision is scary. The tact that those who do lead much of the proven and Developed World are brawny and scrawny is even more so. I wrote earlier about the United States and Europe. Through COVID-19, India and Indians showed far more responsibility and care in the feared beginnings of 2020 and much of 2021 than any of these Developed Nations who boasted single-dose immunity. And we did, for a bit. Let's not forget the fact that we in India are behaving like morons with regards to COVID-19 now (more on that in my next column, which I have already written). Where do we go from here?

To the mavericks

We have many of these in India, who now offend, defend and behave like curs. Believing these item-people with oft-proven traits of misdemeanour is a mistake for all. Instead, we have to identify our fallen sundry and the undefined, and provide them with what they deserve, for they alone can yank us back to our feet, if not our former glory and peace. We are in a sinking ship now.

A quote can perhaps guide us to where we need to be, so here it comes, as many people prepare to spend the coming winter choosing between swearing, sweating, freezing and starving in Great Britain, the wonderfully Developed Nation that is looking for a new Prime Minister but hanging on to our Kohinoor. Shameless...

Whence, we move on to our quote, this one from South African President Nelson Mandela: "Lead from the back—let others believe they are in front." That's the real truth.

Special Mention: Today is the day when India will see the Oath-Taking Ceremony of its first lady Dalit President. Our best wishes to Ms Draupadi Murmu and we look forward to a tenure of growth and prosperity for all Indians, in the country and around the world. Amen.

The writer is a veteran journalist and communications specialist. He can be reached on narayanrajeev2006@gmail.com. Views expressed are personal