Perils of the Melt

Why is Tajikistan concerned about melting glaciers and why should we all be concerned?

This year’s theme for the United Nations World Water Day, celebrated on March 22, is Glacier Preservation. From this year, March 21 will be recognised as the World Day for Glaciers. In December 2022, the UN General Assembly had adopted a resolution declaring 2025 as the International Year of Glaciers' Preservation. It also set up an International Trust Fund for the Preservation of Glaciers.

Various reports have found that the cryosphere – regions on Earth covered by snow and ice – are among the worst affected by climate change. UNESCO, which monitors some 18,600 glaciers across 50 of its World Heritage Sites, says one-third of those are set to disappear by 2050, whatever the temperature rise scenario. In the Hindukush Himalayas (HKH), alone, glaciers occupy approximately 73,173 sq km. These glaciers are melting at an unprecedented rate and the HKH could lose up to 75 per cent of their volume by the end of this century.

In June 2024 the authors travelled to Tajikistan via Uzbekistan to understand the situation of melting glaciers in the country and how this accelerated melting is affecting the country and the region.

In the west of Tajikistan, near the historic town of Penjikent, are the Haftkul or Seven lakes, which amaze everyone with their rich and ever-changing colour of the water. Haftkul is translated from Tajik as Seven Lakes. Each lake has its own name: the lowest and first lake, which is usually the starting point, is Nezhigon, then Soya, Hushyor, Nofin, Khurdak, the largest Marguzor, and the last Hazorchashma.

About Tajikistan

The Republic of Tajikistan is a young country with a population of 10 million. The country emerged after the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 and is the smallest of the five Central Asian countries that were formed. Tajikistan is landlocked, surrounded by China in the East, Uzbekistan in the West, Kyrgyzstan in the North and Afghanistan in the south. It is also the poorest member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and despite considerable income growth, ranks 125 out of 189 in the Human Development Index (UNDP, 2019). The economy remains heavily dependent on Tajik labour migrants, whose remittances contributed around 30 per cent of GDP in 2019; making Tajikistan one of the most remittance dependent countries in the world.

A major part of this beautiful country is mountainous – almost 93 per cent. The Pamir mountain ranges and the Alay mountain ranges are the source of many glacial fed streams and rivers that have supported agriculture and other water needs since ancient times. Three mountain chains are found in the lower mountainous region — The Turkestan, Zarafshan, and Hisar mountains. These mountains too are the source of several glacial fed streams and rivers. The Fann mountains are part of the Pamir-Alay mountain ranges and are home to several beautiful lakes. There are 1,449 natural lakes in Tajikistan: Some 80 per cent of these lakes are located at in mountainous and highland areas, and are glacier fed.

The Seven Lakes: One of Tajikistan’s Best-kept Secrets

If the Fann mountains are Tajikistan’s crown, then the seven lakes are the diamond necklace that are adorning it. These lakes are located in the Shing river gorge. The height of the lowest lake is 1,640 meters, and the highest is 2,400 meters above the sea level.

All lakes, except for the last or seventh lake Hazorchashma, belong to the blockage type of lakes, and appeared due to the descent of rock in a narrow gorge. Their natural dams were formed millions of years ago because of earthquakes and mudstone flows during glacier melting. Each of the lakes is connected by the waters of a turbulent mountain river that amazes with its beauty and purity. Ancient petroglyphs found on the shore of one of them also indicate that the lakes are quite old.

Each of the seven lakes has its own name and distinct features. Nezhigon meaning ‘eyelashes’, is the first lake to be seen, at a height of 1,640 metres and with a depth of 20 m and an area of 0.05 sq km. The lake is well known for its changing colours, depending on the season and the time of day you visit, and ranges from turquoise, deep blue to even purple. This is due to the high mineral content (Sodium and Calcium) in the water. Why this lake was named thus remains a mystery, although some suggest its gently curved shape may have been the inspiration.

The names of the remaining six lakes, can clearly be tied to their unique attributes. Continuing upwards from Nezhigon, up the serpentine road, is a natural dam that separates Nezhigon from Soya lake. Soya, meaning ‘shadow’ in Tajik, is aptly named given how it is found between high cliff and remains in the shadows for most of the day.

Driving up around 400 m from this lake is Lake Hushyor, meaning ‘watchful or vigilant’, at a height of 1,771 m and an area of 0.23 sq km. Surrounded by steep cliffs this lake was once home to poisonous snakes.

Driving further up the mountains is Lake Nofin at a height of 1,820 m, an elongated lake with a length of 2.5 km and a width of 200 m, and an area of 0.48 sq km. Norfin refers to ‘umbilical cord’ in Tajik, and maybe this lake is so named because of its elongated nature and it is the middle of the seven lakes.

Khurdak (Baby) is the smallest of the seven lake that can be circled in just a few minutes. having an area of 0.25 sq km, at a height of 1,870 m and 1.5 km away from Norfin, the previous lake.

The sixth lake, Marghzor lake is perhaps the most beautiful of all and can be reached by an upward drive of 2 km from Khudrak and at a height of 2,140 m, with a surface area of 1.16 sq km and a depth of 45 m.

Hazorchashma, the highest of the seven lakes, is at a height of 2,400 m, and is the second largest of the lakes, with a length of 2 sq km and an area of 0.92 sq km. The lake derives its name from ‘hazor’ meaning thousand and chashma, meaning ‘spring,’ literally translating into ‘thousand springs’

Climate Change and Glacier Pelting

Tajikistan takes a leading position in drawing attention to – and calling action for – the preservation of glaciers. Are the melting glaciers of Tajikistan representational of challenges the world will face due to climate change?

Large reserves of snow and glaciers are accumulated in Tajikistan: Up to 500 cubic kilometers of water are accumulated in glaciers and snows here, contributing to almost 6 per cent of Central Asian waters. There are 14,509 glaciers here, with a total area of glaciations 11,146 square km. The total stock of the ice in glaciers is about 845 cubic km, which is 13 times more than the annual flow of all rivers of the country.

Climate change is causing rapid glacier melting in the mountainous regions here. In an April 2024 meeting at the Wilson Centre in Washington, Tajikistan’s ambassador shared that more than 1,000 of the 30,000 glaciers in his country have already melted. By 2050, this figure may drop by a third, which threatens flash floods from bursting ice lakes, and subsequent water scarcity.

The mountainous regions of the country generate 98 per cent of the electricity through hydropower and so this situation is a point of concern on several levels.

Melting of glaciers in Tajikistan will lead to irreversible climate changes in Central Asia, desertification, agricultural crisis, decline of entire regions due to water shortage, complete destruction of the Aral Sea and may result in a huge crisis due to water shortages leading to reduced harvests and resultant food shortages. In a 2020 blog, World Bank’s Lilia Burunciuc wrote that Tajikistan's annual economic losses due to floods and earthquakes amount to 400 million dollars and affect 500,000 people. In total, Central Asian countries lose 10 billion dollars annually to natural disasters.

There are approximately 947 rivers flowing through the territory of Tajikistan; with a total length that exceeds 28,500 km. Over 80 per cent of the Amudarya River flow and 1 per cent of the Sirdarya River flow are formed in Tajikistan. As a whole, it is 64 cubic km of river flow per year, which amounts to 55.4 per cent of the total drainage of the Aral Sea basin.

The main consumer of water in Tajikistan is irrigated agriculture, varying from 85 to 90 per cent of the total volume of water used. Irrigated agriculture is strategically important for food security and the economy, since it provides up to 90 per cent of agricultural production and contributes about 20 per cent of the national GDP, ensuring employment for the rural population, which constitutes more than 70 per cent of the total population.

Future: Tensed or Secured?

Melting glaciers will increase disasters and affect us at different levels: physical, economic, social, environmental, and psychological. They will affect access to water, increase conflict and impact peace. Major action is needed for: (a) reducing emissions, and (b) decentralised water conservation.

For the people living in the mountains, who have little role to play in climate change, adaptation measures need to escalate.

Humans need to act rapidly, if they want to save their water towers, and themselves.

Views expressed are personal