A costly endeavour

Trump's deportation move has been making headlines, especially after a military aircraft landed in Amritsar, Punjab, on February 5, 2025, carrying over 100 undocumented Indians back home. This move is part of Trump's pledge to implement the "largest deportation effort in American history".

The plan involves deporting nearly 20,000 Indian nationals, and potentially millions of unauthorised immigrants from various countries, including those from South America. Additionally, the US has signed agreements with countries like Colombia, Venezuela, and El Salvador to repatriate deported nationals. Trump has enlisted the help of federal agencies and armed forces to track, arrest, and deport these individuals.

Another aspect of Trump's deportation plan is the potential revocation of birthright citizenship for children born to unauthorised immigrants in the US. However, concerns are being raised about the huge costs that American taxpayers will have to bear for these deportation flights. The plan has also sparked controversy and debate about its feasibility and potential impact on communities.

Extravagant enforcement

The United States' privatised immigration enforcement sector has grown into a multibillion-dollar industry. Companies operating private detention facilities, such as GEO Group and CoreCivic, have seen significant increases in their stock values following hardline immigration declarations.

These companies have invested heavily in lobbying efforts, spending millions to influence stricter enforcement and detention policies. Their efforts have been rewarded with substantial government contracts, including those supporting Trump's immigration agenda.

The scope of privatised immigration services extends beyond detention to include legal processing, healthcare services, surveillance operations, and transportation services. This broad range of services creates a strong financial incentive for private contractors to promote increased enforcement, regardless of its effectiveness or associated costs.

Economic costs

The economic costs of Trump's mass deportation plan are staggering. With an average cost of USD 14,000 to deport a single individual, the total cost of removing 11 million people could exceed USD 150 billion. This is a logistical and financial nightmare, especially considering the costs of detention facilities, which can run into thousands of dollars per bed.

The use of military deportation flights is particularly costly, with prices ranging from USD 252,000 to USD 852,000 per trip, depending on the type of aircraft used. Even routine deportation flights run by the Department of Homeland Security can cost around USD 8,577 each.

These expenses are not only a burden on taxpayers but also divert funds away from essential public services like education and law enforcement. Furthermore, mass deportations could lead to a significant loss of tax revenues and contributions to social welfare, as undocumented immigrants are currently paying around USD 100 billion in taxes and contributing to the economy through their labor.

It's worth noting that the economic benefits of immigration reform and providing a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants could far outweigh the costs of deportation. A study by the American Immigration Council found that deporting undocumented immigrants could shrink the US economy by up to 6.8 per cent.

Human costs

A recent study by the Associated Press (AP) - NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that six out of ten American adults oppose the arrest of undocumented immigrants at sensitive locations such as places of worship and schools. This highlights the need to balance immigration enforcement with human dignity.

The repeal of the "sensitive locations" directive, which protected immigrants from detention and deportation at places like schools and hospitals, marks a concerning shift towards a harsher immigration enforcement approach.

Separating family members can cause extreme emotional distress and put mixed-status families at risk of losing their breadwinners, compromising their social and financial stability. According to the American Immigration Council, approximately 5.1 million US citizen children live with an undocumented family member.

The deportation of undocumented immigrants, who make up roughly 5 per cent of the US labour force, could lead to labour shortages and have a significant impact on various industries, including manufacturing, agriculture, and construction. Moreover, many Americans are not willing to take on these physically demanding and low-paying jobs.

The logistical and financial implications of deporting close to 14 million people are impossible to ignore. Moreover, the human costs of such a plan would be catastrophic, causing lifelong emotional harm to millions of people and tarnishing America's reputation as a champion of human rights.

Geo-political costs

The geo-political costs of Trump's deportation plans are significant, with potential long-term implications for the United States' relationships with other countries. Historically, the US has had easier cooperation with countries like Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador on migration issues. However, countries with strained diplomatic relations, such as China, Russia, Cuba, and Venezuela, are likely to resist US deportation efforts, limiting the number of nationals they will accept.

The US-Colombia standoff is a prime example of the potential consequences of resisting Trump's deportation plans. Trump's actions are intended to assert US dominance on the global stage and serve domestic political interests. However, this approach may ultimately harm US relationships with other countries, particularly in South America.

The strain on US relationships with South American neighbours may not have immediate severe consequences due to US economic and military influence. Nevertheless, prolonged tensions could have long-term implications, especially considering the rising influence of BRICS as an alternative to US dominance. To counterbalance China's growing influence, the US is likely to strengthen Indo-US relations in the Indo-Pacific region.

It's essential to note that Trump's deportation policies are not unprecedented. Both Obama and Biden implemented similar policies, with the Biden administration deporting a record 4.44 million people in 2021 and 2022. However, Trump's aggressive approach and rhetoric are likely to exacerbate geo-political tensions and spark controversy.

Is it worth It?

The question of whether Trump's immigration crackdown is worth it — is a complex one. While Trump and his supporters believe it is necessary, critics argue that the costs far outweigh any potential benefits.

The estimated cost of a one-time mass deportation operation is at least USD 315 billion, which includes costs for arrests, detention, legal processing, and removals. Additionally, mass deportation would separate 4 million mixed-status families, affecting 8.5 million US citizens with undocumented family members, leading to tremendous emotional stress and potential economic hardship.

The US would also lose out on key contributions undocumented households make to social safety net programs, including USD 22.6 billion to Social Security and USD 5.7 billion to Medicare.

Considering these costs, it's clear that Trump's immigration crackdown is not a viable solution. Instead of investing in divisive policies, the US should focus on finding real solutions that address the complexities of immigration.

Fr. John Felix Raj is the Vice Chancellor of St. Xavier’s University, Kolkata, and Sovik Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor of Economics in the Faculty of Commerce and Management at St. Xavier’s University, Kolkata. Views expressed are personal