New Delhi: Emergence of a slew of political parties headed by recognised names with unproven credentials in mass politics threatens to disturb the conventional electoral calculations in Bihar as the state prepares for Assembly polls.
If it appeared a couple of months back that the Jan Suraj Party headed by Prashant Kishor, whose high-decibel foray into popular politics remains a work in progress, will be the only serious new entrant in the polls, former Congress leader I P Gupta has announced the arrival of his Indian Inquilab Party with an impressive show of strength in Gandhi Maidan around the age-old theme of caste mobilisation.
To add to the churn, amid question marks being raised over the fitness of JD(U) president and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar by his rivals, is the Hind Sena formed by
former IPS officer Shivdeep Lande, a Maharashtrian whose flamboyant style at work has rendered him a certain brand recall if not any visible popular support.
If Lande aspires to make a difference in his ‘karmabhoomi’ Bihar, there is also R C P Singh, Kumar’s closest aide-turned-bete noire who had joined the BJP but was left out in the cold after the party revived its alliance with the JD(U).
Singh, a former bureaucrat and a Kurmi like Kumar, is flexing his muscles after launching a new party -- Aap Sab Ki Awaz.
Most leaders across established political parties like the BJP, RJD and the JD(U) are of the view that Kishor and Gupta will be the ones to watch out for in the coming months,
with the memories of Union minister Chirag Paswan-headed Lok Janshakti Party singlehandedly engineering the defeat of the JD(U) in nearly 35 Assembly seats in 2020 still afresh.
An RJD leader claimed that he did not see Kishor or Gupta winning many seats but added that they could draw away just enough votes in several constituencies to ensure the defeat of one of the main parties.
While former well-known political strategist Kishor has been mobilising people around the theme of governance and has shunned the conventional caste identity to build support for his party, Gupta has followed the well-trodden track by seeking to rally Tanti and Tantva castes, which fall in the extremely backward classes category.
These castes were removed from the Scheduled Castes category after a Supreme Court order, and Gupta quit the Congress to champion their cause.
Though RJD leaders claimed Gupta would cut into Kumar’s support, a couple of JD(U) MPs said social equations forged through several elections cannot be undone in one poll and added that their leader remains the chief minister of choice for the numerically smaller castes besides women.
Kishor’s party, political watchers said, has in the past elections drawn a sizeable share of votes from constituencies where it could field strong candidates, at times those with roots in other parties.
These new parties, they added, can be a useful platform for politicians with a certain vote bank who may not get a ticket from the existing major players.
With questions being asked about Kumar’s health and the ability of the RJD to draw voters from outside its core support base, the new players may punch above their weight.
The recent assertion of youthful Paswan, whose party is a constituent of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance which includes the JD(U) and former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, that he was keen to be part of state politics is being seen as his bid to push himself in the mix of chief ministerial aspirants.
On the other hand, the RJD is keen to ensure unity in its alliance that includes the Congress, Left and the Vikasheel Insaan Party, whose leader Mukesh Sahani has been in and out of rival combines, to rule out any chink in its existing vote share when even a minor swing can make a disproportionate difference.