New Delhi: The country’s merchandise exports, which have been contracting since October last year, are expected to decline slightly by the end of this fiscal year and fall below $435 billion, think tank GTRI said on Sunday.
Exports dipped 10.85 per cent in February to $36.91 billion due to volatility in petroleum prices and global uncertainties.
“At this rate, India’s total merchandise exports for FY’2025 are expected to be below $435 billion, slightly lower than $437.1 billion in FY2024,” Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) founder Ajay Srivastava said.
During April-February 2024-25, the exports stood at $395.63 billion as against $395.38 billion in the corresponding period of 2023-24.
Key sectors that recorded negative growth both in February and cumulatively include petroleum products, gems and jewellery, ceramic products and glassware, oil seeds, oil meals, and iron ore. These sectors are facing consistent declines, indicating the need for strategic interventions to support recovery, Srivastava said. In the petroleum products sector, exports fell 29.23 per cent in February 2025 and 25.56 per cent over 11 months, primarily due to a drop of 7.8 per cent in global crude oil prices from $83.5 per barrel in February 2024 to $77 per barrel in February 2025.
“A recovery in this sector will depend on global oil price trends and increased refining efficiency to maintain margins,” he said.
He added that engineering goods, India’s largest export segment, saw an 8.62 per cent decline in February 2025, though it recorded a 7.97 per cent increase over 11 months.
To support this sector, the government can provide low-cost export credit to reduce financial pressure on exporters, and offer technology upgrade incentives to boost productivity and efficiency, Srivastava said. By implementing targeted policy measures, the government can help stabilise struggling sectors and improve overall export performance, ensuring India remains competitive in the global trade market, he added.