Will political uncertainty threaten India-Bangladesh economic cooperation?

Amid chaos in Bangladesh, authorities led by the Army are making efforts to restore normalcy and smooth the path to a new interim government. Indications from Dhaka suggest that the new regime will likely avoid a confrontational approach toward India.

As dramatic events unfolded rapidly amid widespread violent anti-government protests leading to Sheikh Hasina’s fall and escape to India two days ago, New Delhi has maintained constant contact with the Bangladesh Army.

Following Bangladesh’s assurance to Prime Minister Narendra Modi that attacks on the Hindu minority would be controlled, the situation improved on Wednesday. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar stated in Parliament on Tuesday that India was in constant touch with the Bangladesh Army amid the volatile situation there. The Bangladesh Army is also in contact with India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).

New Delhi is unlikely to take any steps that could jeopardise mutual cooperation between the two countries. Such actions could isolate India in Southeast Asian geopolitics, potentially benefiting China. While Sheikh Hasina was granted shelter in India, the Union government will facilitate the process of arranging political asylum for her abroad.

It remains to be seen how New Delhi will navigate the challenges of its diplomatic relationship with its neighbour amid the evolving political landscape. After the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, a steadfast ally of India, the contours of the proposed new interim government in Bangladesh are yet to be finalised. A caretaker government, supported by the military, may be necessary amid the political upheaval, which has significant implications for India, both diplomatically and strategically.

Questions remain about whether the current political uncertainty in Bangladesh will disrupt the economic cooperation that has flourished between the two neighbouring countries in recent years. Regardless of who forms the government in Bangladesh democratically, there have been informal diplomatic signals to the Modi government indicating a desire to avoid confrontation with India and strengthen the relationship. This marks a new chapter for Bangladesh, and the new government is likely to maintain the bilateral relationship for the benefit of mutual diplomatic ties.

The MEA has thus far maintained a cautious stance, labelling the developments in Bangladesh as an internal matter. However, the sudden change in government has introduced uncertainties, raising questions about the impact on the long-standing friendly relations between the two nations. A rise of religious fundamentalists in the new government could disrupt progress made in bilateral relations. The future of India-Bangladesh relations will depend on New Delhi’s ability to adapt its diplomatic strategy, safeguard mutual interests, and maintain regional stability.

Political analysts believe India must remain vigilant in addressing security concerns and ensuring continued counter-terrorism efforts despite the political changes in Dhaka. The Indian government was apprehensive about the situation in Bangladesh and had alerted Prime Minister Hasina through diplomatic channels.

After winning a fourth consecutive term in January, Hasina attended Prime Minister Modi’s oath-taking ceremony in June. However, the situation in Bangladesh began deteriorating well before that. Before visiting China in July, Hasina came to Delhi for bilateral talks that included discussions on the Teesta River issue.

While the protests began weeks ago in response to civil service job quotas for Bangladeshi freedom fighters and their families, discontent among the people over socioeconomic issues and joblessness fueled the movement. Pakistan’s ISI and Jamat reportedly exploited the volatile situation.

Hasina’s “Rajakar” statement further ignited the movement, which had initially been started by the Chhatra League. The Hasina government could have rolled back the proposed quota system in response to the Bangladesh Supreme Court’s decision and potentially convinced Chhatra League leaders. However, her “Rajakar” comment complicated the situation, allowing Jamat and the BNP to add fuel to the fire with anti-Hasina and anti-India slogans.

The US had proposed a caretaker government without Hasina, which the BNP and Jamat readily accepted. After Hasina fled, the country’s parliament was dissolved, and President Mohammed Shahabuddin appointed Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus to lead the interim government.

Historically, India’s crucial military and humanitarian support during the 1971 Liberation War led to the creation of Bangladesh. This intervention cemented a bond that has persisted through various political regimes in both countries.