Brought to a standstill

It has been over a year since the Taliban stormed Kabul on August 15, 2021 and established an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan. This was the second time in two decades that the Taliban gained control over that country. Its regime was earlier ousted from power by American and allied forces after the events of September 11, 2001, in order to dismantle the al-Qaeda that had executed the attacks. This time too, the presence of al Qaeda in that country has been conclusively proven with the killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US drone attack in Kabul. The Taliban regime had promised not to allow the presence of foreign terror outfits like Al Qaeda or the Islamic State (Khorasan), but to no avail. On regaining power, the Taliban had promised a moderation in its radical Islamist approach. However, it seems to have fully reverted to its old ways — giving space to terror outfits and resorting back to its approach on human rights issues. There has also been no forward movement on another front — the ongoing talks between the Pakistan government and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which are being mediated by the Afghan Taliban.

The August 7 killing of four commanders of the TTP in Afghanistan, including top TTP leader Omar Khalid Khorasani, has struck a major blow to the militant outfit and cast doubts over the ceasefire and the peace talks. The TTP has confirmed the deaths of Abdul Wali (alias Omar Khalid Khorasani), Mufti Hassan Swati and Hafiz Dawlat Khan Orakzai in an IED attack as they were travelling in southeastern Afghanistan. Scrapping the truce and peace talks could lead to pressure from the Haqqani network, a powerful Afghan Taliban faction that hosts the TTP in Afghanistan and is believed to have close ties with the Pakistani intelligence services. The ongoing negotiations are being mediated by Sirajuddin Haqqani, the acting interior minister of Afghanistan's Taliban regime. Khorasani, who had a three million US dollar-bounty on his head, was a founding member of the TTP and was considered to be its most important and ruthless commander. He had formed his own outfit called Jamat ul-Ahrar (JuA) in 2013. But he rejoined the TTP after the current leader Noor Wali Mehsud took over in 2018. Khorasani was a harsh critic of the government in Pakistan and had consistently opposed negotiations between the TTP and Islamabad. The other two leaders, Swati and Orakzai, were known for their past links with the Islamic State.

Late last month before these killings, Pakistani military brass had held a crucial national security meeting to discuss the peace talks. The meeting was chaired by Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee Gen Nadeem Raza, and attended by all three services' chiefs, along with ISI Director General Lt Gen Nadeem Anjum and Peshawar Corps Commander Lt Gen Faiz Hamid, among others. A statement issued after the meeting said: "The forum was given a detailed briefing on the review of the national security situation specific to Western Border, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan." It added that "fast-paced developments in the realm of strategic and conventional policies, the importance of peace in Afghanistan for sustainable development in the region and the operational preparedness of the armed forces" were discussed. But within days after the statement was made, an armed attack was carried out against a top leader of Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek a Insaaf (PTI) in the Lower Dir area, allegedly by Islamist extremists. The TTP, however, denied its involvement, 'strongly' condemned the attack and said it was probing whether any of its members were involved in it.

These developments came in the backdrop of the prevailing situation inside Afghanistan and along the Pak-Afghan border, which is being termed as "quite grave". A United Nations report on Afghanistan has highlighted that terror outfits, such as the Al Qaeda and the Islamic State (Khorasan) or ISIL-KP, were operating freely in Afghanistan, while the TTP was consolidating its reign by reorganising and strengthening the largest group of foreign terrorists on Afghan soil. These outfits have greatly benefited from the humongous amounts of arms, ammunition and other equipment left behind by the US-NATO forces when they withdrew in August last year. At that time, it was feared that Afghanistan would again become a hotbed of international terrorism. These fears were not unfounded. The UN report said: "Tensions and security incidents have been reported in the areas of Afghanistan bordering Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, including incidents between Taliban and Iranian border forces ... and a deadly stampede (had occurred) at the Afghanistan-Pakistan border crossing in Spin Boldak. Tensions between Tajikistan and the de facto authorities escalated with the deployment of Taliban and Tajik forces and reports of the presence in northern Afghanistan of ISIL-KP cells and of Afghan opposition figures associated with the National Resistance Front." Such violent attacks, especially along the borders of land-locked Afghanistan touching six countries, is one of the reasons preventing these bordering nations from recognising the Taliban regime.

Before he was killed in a US drone attack on July 31, Al Qaeda chief Ayman al Zawahiri was silently, but openly operating in Afghanistan, the UN report said. The IS-KP, after being routed from the Levant on the eastern shores of the Mediterranean, also found an atmosphere conducive for conducting its activities in Afghanistan. For Pakistan, it should be a matter of great concern that the TTP maintains thousands of fighters just across the border in Afghanistan. In case the ongoing negotiations fall through, Islamabad needs to have a contingency plan in place to neutralise such a large number of militants. In an effort to prevent the parleys with TTP from failing, Islamabad had also sent a 13-member delegation of Islamic clerics last month to talk with the TTP and soften them up. However, the delegation failed to convince the outlawed TTP, which did not budge from their demands such as implementation of Sharia, reversal of the merger of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and withdrawal of the armed forces from the Pak-Afghan border.

Several voices inside Pakistan have been critical of the peace talks with TTP, which are being carried out by the military brass and are authorised by a parliamentary committee. The TTP has, till the recent past, mercilessly butchered tens of thousands of Pakistani civilians and soldiers. "This cowardly and shameful abdication of responsibility (by holding talks with the TTP) suggests a rubber-stamp Parliament that is good for naught but seeking perks and privileges for its members," noted Islamabad-based physicist and writer Pervez Hoodbhoy in an article. Listing out several "failed agreements of the last 20 years" between the Pakistani armed forces and terrorists, he said, "direct negotiation between the army and terrorist groups is nothing new but has never produced results. ..... Talking to hardcore killers who understand only the use of force needlessly gifts them political stature." In the article on the Pak-TTP talks, Hoodbhoy said: "To accept the demands of TTP terrorists is poison for Pakistan. If they win in ex-FATA, how long before militancy spreads from areas as far south as DI Khan and Tank to the upper reaches of Dir and Swat? Like wildfire, radicalism will consume other parts of Pakistan. This is no time for dawdling. Parliamentarians: wake up before you become irrelevant. Military: do your duty and protect the physical borders of this country."

A prominent Islamabad-based research and advocacy think-tank, Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), recently brought out a report titled 'Afghanistan as Seen from Pakistan'. It said Islamabad would have "to engage the Taliban government in Kabul directly to neutralise the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan." While Pakistan must have a uniform approach towards all the Taliban groups and factions, the report said Islamabad should consider Afghanistan as a sovereign country having the freedom to develop ties with other nations. It must also "stop relying on the Taliban regime in power" and "engage with other political and ethnic groups of Afghanistan, in line with its policy to build trust and strengthen relations with Afghans."

A top former military official said "the (Pakistan) state is bowing down too much, trying to pacify them, instead of being firm. The type of agenda and ambitions that they have there is nothing that Pakistan can compromise." The former officer, Lt Gen Talat Masood, who was also the secretary of Pakistan's Ministry of Defense Production, told The Diplomat: "The Afghan Taliban have given them so much space. Pakistan was hoping that with the Taliban taking over, Afghanistan would be friendly with Pakistan and look after Pakistan's interests; it is the other way around. They know that we cannot afford to annoy them, but they too cannot afford to annoy Pakistan. So they are playing the middle game." New Delhi needs to keep a close watch over the developments relating to Pakistan government's talks with the TTP, as any gain by the terror outfit could have a detrimental effect on the situation in Kashmir and other parts of India.

Views expressed are personal