Sudan's quest for certainty

Sudan continues to face political uncertainty even after three weeks of toppling the country's authoritarian ruler for 30 years, General Omar Al Bashir, and members of his ruling regime amid a mounting series of protests since last December. The overthrow of Bashir and his corrupt and brutal regime is a positive development but will it lead to the formation of a civilian government is a question yet to be answered. There are real concerns that the Transitional Military Council (TMC), formed to run the country after the ouster of Bashir on April 11, is just a puppet of the old regime and has been created to buy time and ensure the continuity of the status quo.

TMC and opposition forces appear to be on a collision course with tens of thousands of protestors continuing their sit-in outside the defence ministry which also houses the presidential residence, demanding a swift move to an interim civilian-led political transition. In a rebuff to the protest movement on Thursday, Sahms la-Deen al-Kabashi, a spokesman for the military council, insisted that the military will "maintain sovereign powers" until elections can be held. The statement shows that the battle between the still-powerful remnants of Sudan's old deep state and the street movement anxious to dismantle all the old laws and state structures of the Bashir era is not going to end in the near future. The military has warned people against blocking roads and limiting the movement of citizens, signalling possible action against protesters.

Although TMC, led by General Abel Fattah Al Burhan, has announced a series of decisions, including anti-corruption and anti-graft measures, these seem to hold little weight with the protestors. Burhan, who is the commander of the Sudanese ground forces and is believed to enjoy some popularity within the army's lower rank, also announced that formation of a joint military-civilian council was being considered. Several top members of Bashir's ruling National Congress Party have been arrested and TMC said it would retire all eight of the officers ranked lieutenant general in the feared National Intelligence and Security Service. However, there are plenty of doubts about his intentions and agenda.

As an officer in the ground forces, he had served in both South Sudan and South Darfur. In recent days, people in Darfur have expressed their outrage at Burhan's appointment as head of TMC, claiming that under his command, the forces committed killings and forced displacement. He also appears to support the Popular Defence Forces (PDF), created in 1989 by Bashir as a loyal paramilitary organisation with Islamist ideology. In the 1990s, the force had fought in the war in South Sudan. Burhan's deputy, General Hemedti, also has a similar background. His appointment generated outrage on social media and was rejected by people of Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan states, where his militia has been allegedly committing crimes against the civilians. The Sudanese Professionals' Association (SPA), the main organiser of the protests, has threatened to suspend talks with the Council. The opposition, led by the umbrella group of unions that is orchestrating the protest – Forces of the Declaration of Freedom and Change (FDFC) that includes (SPA) – is insisting on a swift handover of power to civilians.

TMC maintains the need for a transitional period of up to two years before handing power over to the civilians. The key issue remains whether the armed forces will monopolise the power by replacing one military leadership with another or form a transitional government before transferring the power to a legitimate popular government. Professional unions, which are spearheading the protests along with political parties, have rejected a two-year transitional phase under the military. They want immediate handover of authority to a transitional civilian body, the annulment of unlawful decrees along with the arrest of key figures in the old regime and putting them on trial. TMC has asked political parties and professional unions to provide names of civilian figures who could form a transitional government.

Observers say that the army is unlikely to hand over power to a civilian body, as Bashir's authoritarian rule had relied heavily on the military. Many top military brasses that allegedly squandered the country's resources, fear arrests once the power goes to civilians. How far the military goes in yielding power to a civilian body is anybody's guess.

The umbrella body FDFC, of which main political opposition groups and civil society organisations are part, proposes to govern the country for four years to bring about peace and accountability followed by a general election. The alliance has become more coherent but still needs to establish a leadership structure and policy guidelines. However, it is to be seen how long can they remain united in their quest to end military rule. If the situation continues, there is also a fear that the military itself may lose unity that could possibly lead to hardliners in the force taking over the power.

The main issue remains whether the armed forces will concentrate power and ultimately replace one military leadership with another, or share power with a civilian body and then transfer to a legitimate popular government. The longer the stalemate continues, the deeper the crisis will be. It is important that the military initiates a meaningful dialogue with people's representatives in order to agree on a road map that will pave the way for a civilian body to take over.

Influential countries in the region and beyond, including EU and US, must step in to ensure that a civilian government as per the wishes of the people takes charge at the earliest. They should also help in putting Sudan on the path of economic recovery after decades of turmoil and exploitation of the country's resources. Coordinated efforts by regional and international partners will be critical in bringing reforms in government institutions as well as addressing the economic crisis. Development assistance, investment, debt relief and lifting off the US designation of Sudan as a sponsor of terrorism can come into play in a big way. However, all this will definitely depend on the formation of a civilian government.

(The author is a former Editor of PTI and served as West Asia Correspondent for PTI, based in Bahrain from 1988 to 1995. The views expressed are strictly personal)