Moderating influence

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are getting more intense with each passing day, creating a greater divide between Russia and the West as well. Most countries are finding themselves on either side of the divide for one reason or the other. India, in a manner that is reminiscent of non-alignment spirit, is striving hard to maintain a fine balance between the two of the greatest global superpowers. But the question in the current case is more complicated than it was in the Cold War era. Here, the entire episode is centred around a country that is struggling for stability and, at the same time, is home to many Indians who would bear the direct consequences of confrontation, if it occurs. Ukraine is learnt to have updated India on the developments in the country. Referring to the allegations of armed offensive by the Ukrainian army — levelled by separatist groups in Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Eastern Ukraine — Ukraine has clarified that "the allegations have been unsubstantiated and are either unfounded or provocative by their nature." As is known, Ukraine is roughly bifurcated on the issue of proximity with Russia. While the Western Ukraine is more inclined towards Europe, a large part of Eastern Ukraine, as Putin claims, relates itself with Russia. Donetsk and Luhansk are home to many separatist groups that Ukraine asserts are backed by Russia. Apart from the big external threat it faces from Russia, Ukraine is currently experiencing heavy shelling from the separatists, which it asserts is a Russian attempt to provoke Ukraine into escalation and find a ground for waging a war. So, Ukraine has tried to clarify its position to India — a country that appears to be balancing the ideological extremes of the US and Russia. Notably, Ukraine has been asserting — despite Biden's persistent prophecy of an imminent invasion — that a full-scale invasion of Ukraine is less likely. Has Ukraine come to understand the vitality of balance and not being swayed away by any of the superpowers? What does it expect from countries like India? Notably, at the UNSC meet called by the United States, India's permanent member to the UN, TS Tirumurti, emphasized the "need for all sides to maintain international peace and security by exercising the utmost restraint and intensifying diplomatic efforts to ensure that a mutually amicable solution is arrived at the earliest". He pointed towards the Trilateral Contact Group and Normandy format as part of the solution. Balancing, though it may seem (and is to a certain extent), India's stand is also a denial of the US approach in a sense that the meet was called against the Russian aggression. But it also didn't seem to support Russia anywhere. However, Russian President Vladmir Putin welcomed India's "balanced, principled and independent approach." This reminds of the period preceding the 'Crimean annexation' when India maintained a similar balance and Putin had acknowledged that. India's balanced approach can be seen through two different lenses. Firstly, India is aware that escalation could lead the situation to nowhere, and in fact make it worse. Second, obviously, is India's national interest that is aligned both with the US and Russia. Both comprehensive global strategic partnership with the US and the special and privileged partnership with Russia are equally important to India. The ideological outlook and development paradigm in India today have more in common with the US — which is also crucial from the point of view of countering China. Russia, at the same time, has been a reliable defence partner. More importantly, it has been very supportive of India on multilateral fora. This, however, is not to suggest that India should forget its responsibility towards restoring peace in the conflict zone. Rather than resorting to side-taking and further widening the divide, India should use its position to create a bridge through dialogues and moderation. Less heroic, it may seem, but that's where the solution lies. History shows that escalations have only thrown smaller countries into perpetual turmoil. India's current position on Ukraine is a welcome step because it abstains from supporting any of the factions that are ready for war. Like Ukraine itself, India is in favour of avoiding war through moderation and not irresponsible confrontation. Furthermore, India's actions are limited by its national interests and geographical distance with Ukraine. Within its capabilities, it should make genuine efforts towards peace.